The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

hmm yeah I2 is untouchable ..

@Porthos @Thanos Legion

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Posted this in the weekend thread, but might as well do it here. Not certain if Deadline is talking about updated tracking beyond what we got two weeks ago, but they're still putting that $200M OW for Toy Story 4 out there.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-black-international-shaft-secret-life-of-pets-2-weekend-box-office-1202632705/

Hmm... I really don't see it although it would hardly be the biggest shocker of the year. I mean what hook does this have to match I2's 14 years of pent-up demand? And wasn't the original 200 million OW projection based on the fact that TS4 had a higher first day of presales than I2, a metric in which it has now fallen behind?

Edited June 14, 2019 by Menor

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

@Porthos @Thanos Legion

 

 

 

I assumed they meant just among Pixar.

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Hmm... I really don't see it although it would hardly be the biggest shocker of the year. I mean what hook does this have to match I2's 14 years of pent-up demand? And wasn't the original 200 million OW projection based on the fact that TS4 had a higher first day of presales than I2, a metric in which it has now fallen behind?

it depends, as of now pre sales indicate 150-160 for now, so 

ps also they said that 200 ow MAY, key word be possible,  they didnt say that it will happen, but if it comes true i wouldnt be too shocked , while pre sales are good , they are not always tell the whole story , presales didnt indicate  a 180 ow for i2, or a 300 +ow for endgame, the walkups are the biggest story

 

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Edited June 14, 2019 by john2000

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Posted this in the weekend thread, but might as well do it here. Not certain if Deadline is talking about updated tracking beyond what we got two weeks ago, but they're still putting that $200M OW for Toy Story 4 out there.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-black-international-shaft-secret-life-of-pets-2-weekend-box-office-1202632705/

"some predicting"

 

Ugh.  Such weasel words.  Especially since we don't know if that's an updated prediction or the one based on the first 36 hours of pre-sales.

[Sunny Max]

11 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

@Porthos @Thanos Legion

 

 

 

hahahha yeah ... F2 will demolish I2 ... 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, john2000 said:

it depends, as of now pre sales indicate 150-160 for now, so 

Eh...I don't really think the presales indicate 150-160 right now. We shall see though.

[Porthos]

For TS4 to overtake I2 it'll need to really ramp up on the MTW of release week AND have an amazing internal multiplier. 

 

Can it do both?  Sure.  Signs aren't there yet, but it could.

 

Will it do both?  Not betting either way, at the moment.  Talk to me again or Tue or Wed next week.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Eh...I don't really think the presales indicate 150-160 right now. We shall see though.

150 is more likely than 130 though,also its not like it has fall that behind that it will be 50 mill short of i2

Edited June 14, 2019 by john2000

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

For TS4 to overtake I2 it'll need to really ramp up on the MTW of release week AND have an amazing internal multiplier. 

 

Can it do both?  Sure.  Signs aren't there yet, but it could.

 

Will it do both?  Not betting either way, at the moment.  Talk to me again or Tue or Wed next week.

who knows, maybe it will be more walk up heavy, but yeah we shall see

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

hahahha yeah ... F2 will demolish I2 ... 

 

Demolish? Where? 

 

Worldwide it will beat it but domestic and domestic OW, I believe I2 still comes out ahead.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

150 is more likely than 130 though

I disagree, I don't see why 130 would be such a shocker (and it would be a really, really good number too). And to your other point, I'd say presales actually did predict the 350+ OW for Endgame (I mean it was at 120-140 million on Monday of release week, probably ended up at 170 million or so), we were all just too scared of overpredicting to follow them to that conclusion. I don't think we can just dismiss presales and say that every movie will be totally determined by walkups. They have been a pretty good indicator recently, and I don't think they should be ignored. They're one of the best sources of information we have for prediction.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I disagree, I don't see why 130 would be such a shocker (and it would be a really, really good number too). And to your other point, I'd say presales actually did predict the 350+ OW for Endgame (I mean it was at 120-140 million on Monday of release week, probably ended up at 170 million or so), we were all just too scared of overpredicting to follow them to that conclusion. I don't think we can just dismiss presales and say that every movie will be totally determined by walkups. They have been a pretty good indicator recently, and I don't think they should be ignored. They're one of the best sources of information we have for prediction.

first NOONE thought 350 for endgame was possible , not bc they were afraid but bc THE PRESALES DIDNT INDICATE, something like this, i also didnt say that 130 ow for t4 would be a shocker, but again presales do suggest higher than that

 

PS presales are a good indicator, and we should always take them to consideration, but at the same time we should take them with a grain of salt, in situation like this, and while pre sales for endgame suggested that a 300 ow could happen, in now way they did suggest a 350, pre sales are very accurate when it comes to previews, abut when it comes to fri-sat-sun we dont really know how the weekend will unfold, as the calcution is with multis for the same kind of movies, not from presales

Edited June 14, 2019 by john2000

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Demolish? Where? 

 

Worldwide it will beat it but domestic and domestic OW, I believe I2 still comes out ahead.

of course talking about Worldwide .... but domestic has also a chance (OW).. will shall see ... it is early to talk about OW of F2 ..

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

who knows, maybe it will be more walk up heavy, but yeah we shall see

walk up will be the key ... 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

first NOONE thought 350 for endgame was possible , not bc they were afraid but bc THE PRESALES DIDNT INDICATE, something like this, i also didnt say that 130 ow for t4 would be a shocker, but again presales do suggest higher than that

The presales were so much higher than any other movie in history that we had no idea what it meant. It was totally uncharted territory and nobody wanted to overshoot. But in hindsight they were predictive of the ridiculous breakout performance we say that weekend. I mean no movie (including TFA I believe) ever had over 100 million in presales for its opening weekend specifically (a large fraction of TFA's presales were spread over the holidays). And then here comes Endgame with (assuming somewhat similar ratios to IW) getting over $150 million in presales for that weekend. That's just a ridiculous presale performance. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Menor

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

walk up will be the key ... 

it seems like that ,we will see

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

The presales were so much higher than any other movie in history that we had no idea what it meant. It was totally uncharted territory and nobody wanted to overshoot. But in hindsight they were predictive of the ridiculous breakout performance we say that weekend. I mean no movie (including TFA I believe) ever had over 100 million in presales for its opening weekend specifically (a large fraction of TFA's presales were spread over the holidays). And then here comes Endgame with (assuming somewhat similar ratios to IW) getting over $150 million in presales for that weekend. I mean that's just ridiculous. 

again NOONE THOUGHT , that it could do that high, we were in uncharted terrytory and the only suggestion was that we are in for something huge, but we didnt know how huge exactly

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

The presales were so much higher than any other movie in history that we had no idea what it meant. It was totally uncharted territory and nobody wanted to overshoot. But in hindsight they were predictive of the ridiculous breakout performance we say that weekend. I mean no movie (including TFA I believe) ever had over 100 million in presales for its opening weekend specifically (a large fraction of TFA's presales were spread over the holidays). And then here comes Endgame with (assuming somewhat similar ratios to IW) getting over $150 million in presales for that weekend. That's just a ridiculous presale performance. 

if i m not wrong TFA had also Over $100 M presales for the weekend ....

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

if i m not wrong TFA had also Over $100 M presales for the weekend ....

it did, the presales for endgame were HUGE, but what i am trying to say is that the presales also didnt suggest a fri-sat-sun like these. the only that  was very very accurate wwere the previews

Edited June 14, 2019 by john2000