The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Nothing about these pre-sales are "fine" for this kind of film. 120 is pretty much the ceiling right now, and that's only if walk ups turn out strong. 

 

Damn, you know how to overreact.  One theater in a shitty part of Florida surrounded by old people where it’s not performing on par with 200M openers with far larger fanbases that have been shown to buy tickets as soon as possible, and now 120M is the ceiling?

 

I don’t know why I’m even visiting this thread.  Y’all are insufferable, claiming shit is “locked” left and right and refusing to look at any possible scenarios that don’t support what you want to happen.  I’m close to done with this thread.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 6/18/2018 at 11:57 PM, That One Guy said:

 

I highly doubt JW:FK is as presales heavy as DP2, Solo, or I2.

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Almost all these movies except I2 and Black Panther are far more presales based. 

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

I2 is a closer comp than almost all the other films.  That doesn’t mean it’ll follow it perfectly, but given what Han gave us for comps, it makes more sense than some of the Marvel, DC, and Star Wars films.

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Sad to see Jurassic World might be doing a Deadpool 2 and Solo and miss even low end tracking ($130m). 

JW2 will be lucky to pull a DP2. It’s looking to completely whiff on its track ala Solo 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Damn, you know how to overreact.  One theater in a shitty part of Florida surrounded by old people where it’s not performing on par with 200M openers with far larger fanbases that have been shown to buy tickets as soon as possible, and now 120M is the ceiling?

 

I don’t know why I’m even visiting this thread.  Y’all are insufferable, claiming shit is “locked” left and right and refusing to look at any possible scenarios that don’t support what you want to happen.  I’m close to done with this thread.

And please tell me how saying sub 100 is looking likely when it still has a big gap behind I2 on MT the day of release is overreacting? Are you expecting I2 to make 150 this weekend or something? 

[Thrylos 7]

54 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

What is your point? I see mid teen previews and mid 100s opening weekend. Where is the disagreement?

My point is that you tried to compare JW with JW2 and the circumstances are very different.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

And please tell me how saying sub 100 is looking likely when it still has a big gap behind I2 on MT the day of release is overreacting? Are you expecting I2 to make 150 this weekend or something? 

 

Wow, a walk up oriented film that doesn’t have showings start for another 7 hours is tracking behind a film that just opened to 180M?  I for one am shocked

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

#Exposed

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Wow, a walk up oriented film that doesn’t have showings start for another 7 hours is tracking behind a film that just opened to 180M?  I for one am shocked

And where is your data to support a direct sequel being walk up heavy in 2018? 

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

JW2 will be lucky to pull a DP2. It’s looking to completely whiff on its track ala Solo 

 

I just meant in general, those being two other high profile Summer films that completely missed even their low end tracking ranges. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

And where is your data to support a direct sequel being walk up heavy in 2018? 

 

Can you please show me the evidence that supports it won’t be walk up heavy?  We’re both making guesses as much as anyone.  I think it will be because it lacks a huge fanbase that Star Wars, Marvel, DC etc. has.

 

Anecdotal of course, but I’m probbaly more excited for this than 99% of America and I’ve yet to buy my tickets

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

 

I just meant in general, those being two other high profile Summer films that completely missed even their low end tracking ranges. 

There’s a huge ass difference between missing tracking by $4.5M and missing it by $20M+ when it comes to these films. 

 

If JW2 opens at $130M that would be really good for it and nothing like what happened with Solo 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Can you please show me the evidence that supports it won’t be walk up heavy?  

I'm not going to direct you to all of the evidence of pretty much all big direct sequels in recent years needing strong pre-sales to open massive. You know you're aware of what I'm talking about. 

[Nova]

7 hours before the first showtime and JW2 hasn’t even climbed more than 2% on MT since this morning. I guess people are using the next seven hours to walk to their local theaters and show just how walk up heavy this franchise is. In fact I just saw two folks walking on the side of the street in Chicago and that’s what they told me they were doing. 

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

There’s a huge ass difference between missing tracking by $4.5M and missing it by $20M+ when it comes to these films. 

 

If JW2 opens at $130M that would be really good for it and nothing like what happened with Solo 

I know that.

 

I was just saying about missing or meeting tracking. 

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not going to direct you to all of the evidence of pretty much all big direct sequels in recent years needing strong pre-sales to open massive. You know you're aware of what I'm talking about. 

 

You're right.  Jurassic World should be comparable in terms of sales to Infinity War, Last Jedi, Deadpool, Solo, Justice League, etc. to be massive, despite the fact that Jurassic World will never have close to the massive fanbase all these films have that tend to buy tickets as soon as humanly possible.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

7 hours before the first showtime and JW2 hasn’t even climbed more than 2% on MT since this morning. I guess people are using the next seven hours to walk to their local theaters and show just how walk up heavy this franchise is. In fact I just saw two folks walking on the side of the street in Chicago and that’s what they told me they were doing. 

 

Damn, what a hilarious and witty joke that completely misses the point of what I've said.

 

Yeah I'm done with this thread.  If I don't respond to your quotes, then it means I've put you on ignore.

[Nova]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

You're right.  Jurassic World should be comparable in terms of sales to Infinity War, Last Jedi, Deadpool, Solo, Justice League, etc. to be massive, despite the fact that Jurassic World will never have close to the massive fanbase all these films have that tend to buy tickets as soon as humanly possible.

You do realize that most of us are taking into account that it’s not as presales heavy and even still it’s trailing those films by a wide margin. Like do you think it’s going to close the 40-50% on a film like Deadpool 2 via walk ups because if you are then you’re essentially saying you expect 40% of JW2 sales to come via walk ups which is ridiculous given how presales have been driving the industry 

[abra]

I think it was a mistake for UNIVERSAL to release the film so late after the premiere in the world

Edited June 21, 2018 by abra

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, Nova said:

You do realize that most of us are taking into account that it’s not as presales heavy and even still it’s trailing those films by a wide margin. Like do you think it’s going to close the 40-50% on a film like Deadpool 2 via walk ups because if you are then you’re essentially saying you expect 40% of JW2 sales to come via walk ups which is ridiculous given how presales have been driving the industry 

Yeah, it's not as if anyone around here is saying 65m weekend!!! because it's only doing about half of DP2's pre-sales. People are obviously accounting for it being more walk up heavy. And even still, don't see how 100 is likely.