That One Girl Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said: What am I reading? People having a discussion about sexual organs of donkeys??? Isn't this a box office forum? It's also the Hard to be a God fan club forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheForceuser707 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Just now, Barnack said: I imagine your simply trolling, but you do realize how big 356m in rental is, in one market alone. If they would have got a more regular 53% dbo retention rate like others movie tend to get instead of a special 65%, they would have needed to do 671m, something only Avatar and Force Awaken did..... Even with a say 500m cost to make and market, yes they are going to the bank big time and when you add foreign rental, it already covered movie cost and marketing cost just from rental, something almost no modern movie do. It's simple math. They have to recoup an exact amount in order to break even. Doesn't matter how you slice it. How much did it cost to make and market? If they get 65% of DOM and 10% of foreign thus far they've recouped about $392M Somehow I don't think that covers things and I doubt they're laughing their way to anywhere based on TLJ's numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheForceuser707 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, That One Guy said: It's also the Hard to be a God fan club forum. You're clearly unwell, as is your old chum. Edited January 6, 2018 by TheForceuser707 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said: What am I reading? People having a discussion about sexual organs of donkeys??? Isn't this a box office forum? you might have taken a wrong turn somewhere, this forum is Cocks Office Theory. sorry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said: It's simple math. They have to recoup an exact amount in order to break even. Doesn't matter how you slice it. How much did it cost to make and market? If they get 65% of DOM and 10% of foreign thus far they've recouped about $392M Somehow I don't think that covers things and I doubt they're laughing their way to anywhere based on TLJ's numbers. It is not necessarily that easy to calculate how much a movie make (you need to compare how well star wars merchandise would have sold this Christmas without a movie for example). Foreign retention rate is much higher than 10% (again you are probably just trolling), specially for a giant title like Star wars getting special high deal in most market and has no box office from China yet, probably around 45% like the Potters movie tended to get. That was the expected James Bond retention rate by market found in the leaked Sony hack: Japan 49% South Korea 47% Germany 45% Austria 45% Australia 44% UK 44% Switzerland 44% Belgium 43% Spain 43% Russia 42% Brazil 41% Italy 41% Netherlands 41% France 39% Mexico 38% China 25% Has for how much Last Jedi cost to make and market, what are the producer Hamill and others points, etc... we will never know. If we use deadline estimate of Force Awakens for a reference it was around 260m net production cost and 185 world theatrical releasing cost, 25m overhead. Obviously you need to take into account people participation bonus kicking in as soon as first dollar possibly, but you could imagine something around just 500 to 550m, below an current rental that is probably around 550m to 620m Most of the star wars revenues does not come from ticket sales: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-star-wars-force-awakens-revenue/ Movies do not tend to hit profits zone before world tv revenues come in, to even be in talk of breaking even already at this point is a rare phenomenom. If a movie doing over 1 billion while being very strong domestic, giant merchandising, getting special very high proportion of the box office from theater would not turn a giant profit ?, what would, what kind of horrible business model blockbuster would be ? Edited January 6, 2018 by Barnack 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheForceuser707 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Barnack said: It is not necessarily that easy to calculate how much a movie make (you need to compare how well star wars merchandise would have sold this Christmas without a movie for example). Foreign retention rate is much higher than 10% (again you are probably just trolling), specially for a giant title like Star wars getting special high deal in most market and has no box office from China yet, probably around 45% like the Potters movie tended to get. That was the expected James Bond retention rate by market found in the leaked Sony hack: Japan 49% South Korea 47% Germany 45% Austria 45% Australia 44% UK 44% Switzerland 44% Belgium 43% Spain 43% Russia 42% Brazil 41% Italy 41% Netherlands 41% France 39% Mexico 38% China 25% Has for how much Last Jedi cost to make and market, what are the producer Hamill and others points, etc... we will never know. If we use deadline estimate of Force Awakens for a reference it was around 260m net production cost and 185 world theatrical releasing cost, 25m overhead. Obviously you need to take into account people participation bonus kicking in as soon as first dollar possibly, but you could imagine something around just 500 to 550m, below an current rental that is probably around 550m to 620m Most of the star wars revenues does not come from ticket sales: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-star-wars-force-awakens-revenue/ Movies do not tend to hit profits zone before world tv revenues come in, to even be in talk of breaking even already at this point is a rare phenomenom. If you're saying TLJ was nothing more than an expensive advertisement for new movie related merchandise, then yeah maybe things would look a bit differently. But as far as the movie standing on its own - it hasn't broken even. The way things are looking it may never do so. Edited January 6, 2018 by TheForceuser707 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said: But as far as the movie standing on its own - it hasn't broken even The way things are looking it may never do so. How so. Revenues: 549*.65 + 573.5*.45 = 615m How much more than 615m do you think they spent to make and release that movie ? What kind of first dollar bonus do you think Kennedy, Hammil and co. got ? It could get above 700m from theatrical rental, and say we give it a terrible ratio were the movie does 60% of is revenue from theater if you exlcude all form of merchandise, that would be 1166m in direct revenues for that movie, before merchandise, you really think is total cost will be that high ? Edited January 6, 2018 by Barnack 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Damn, someone has some complacent appraisals to destroy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheForceuser707 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Barnack said: How so. Revenues: 549*.65 + 573.5*.45 = 615m How much more than 615m do you think they spent to make and release that movie ? What kind of first dollar bonus do you think Kennedy, Hammil and co. got ? It could get above 700m from theatrical rental, and say we give it a terrible ratio were the movie does 60% of is revenue from theater if you exlcude all form of merchandise, that would be 1166m in direct revenues for that movie, before merchandise, you really think is total cost will be that high ? I didn't realize the studios get 45% of foreign revenues. Thought it was much less. Will have to look into that. In any event isn't KK quoted as saying the worldwide marketing/etc. costs for TLJ were more than $800M? Will have to look into this also for verification, but if you're right and TLJ ends up depositing just $615M in returns, then how can it be considered financially successful? Merchandising is not box office. Edited January 6, 2018 by TheForceuser707 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said: I didn't realize the studios get 45% of foreign revenues. Thought it was much less. Will have to look into that. In any event isn't KK quoted as saying the worldwide marketing/etc. costs for TLJ were more than $800M? Merchandising is not box office. Do you think it matter in any way how and why the revenus come in. Someone said TLJ needed around 800m in box office WW to break even I think (I would assume that is not considering merchandising at all), you could be refering too, not that it costed 800m. Quote but if you're right and TLJ ends up depositing just $615M in returns, then how can it be considered financially successful? Well for one, by assuming how much is still to come, there is some rental to come in, but more so, the movie industry is not just box office. Read a couple of studios annual report to have some idea of the revenue a movie make relative to is box office. WB in 2016 for example: They made 5.6b in theatrical product. Rental: 2.18b Home video: 1.48b TV: 1.63b Consummer product: 321m In 2015: Rental: 1.58b Home video: 1.7b TV: 1.58b consummer product: 269m In those 2 year's, rental was 35% of the revenues from the Warner Brother movie division was theater ticket, most of the money is still outside that, the movie industry is an higher than 80b world industry with most of it having higher return than the theater. Sony leak showed that breakdown for revenues sources from the movie they released between 2006 and 2014: Source of revenue Amount % Domestic Theatrical 5,359,831 18% Intl theatrical 4,896,173 17% DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE 7,151,339 24% DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 591,133 2% INTL HOME ENT REVENUE 3,167,917 11% INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 173,369 1% DOMESTIC TV PPV REVENUE 263,639 1% DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE 1,656,035 6% DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE 1,088,838 4% INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION 4,659,861 16% AIRLINES AND MUSIC 217,513 1% CONSUMER PRODUCTS REVENUE 270,395 1% Total $29,496,043 35% from selling tickets, 65% after that windows and I never seen a difference made from money made from theater ticket or other source, that is mostly a construction that is made from box office "fans" because it is the only public numbers we see. Looking at those number you see that a movie doing 700m in rental will go way over 1 billion in revenues without even considering the merchandise, a huge commercial success already, even with a total cost going over 700m like I imagine they will. Edited January 6, 2018 by Barnack 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheForceuser707 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Barnack said: Do you think it matter in any way how and why the revenus come in. Someone said TLJ needed around 800m in box office WW to break even I think (I would assume that is not considering merchandising at all), you could be refering too, not that it costed 800m. Well for one, by assuming how much is still to come, there is some rental to come in, but more so, the movie industry is not just box office. Read a couple of studios annual report to have some idea of the revenue a movie make relative to is box office. WB in 2016 for example: They made 5.6b in theatrical product. Rental: 2.18b Home video: 1.48b TV: 1.63b Consummer product: 321m In 2015: Rental: 1.58b Home video: 1.7b TV: 1.58b consummer product: 269m In those 2 year's, rental was 35% of the revenues from the Warner Brother movie division was theater ticket, most of the money is still outside that, the movie industry is an higher than 80b world industry with most of it having higher return than the theater. Sony leak showed that breakdown for revenues sources from the movie they released between 2006 and 2014: Source of revenue Amount % Domestic Theatrical 5,359,831 18% Intl theatrical 4,896,173 17% DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE 7,151,339 24% DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 591,133 2% INTL HOME ENT REVENUE 3,167,917 11% INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 173,369 1% DOMESTIC TV PPV REVENUE 263,639 1% DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE 1,656,035 6% DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE 1,088,838 4% INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION 4,659,861 16% AIRLINES AND MUSIC 217,513 1% CONSUMER PRODUCTS REVENUE 270,395 1% Total $29,496,043 35% from selling tickets, 65% after that windows and I never seen a difference made from money made from theater ticket or other source, that is mostly a construction that is made from box office "fans" because it is the only public numbers we see. Looking at those number you see that a movie doing 700m in rental will go way over 1 billion in revenues without even considering the merchandise, a huge commercial success already, even with a total cost going over 700m like I imagine they will. I appreciate the information you are offering. You can make that argument and it might even be considered valid, but the bottom line is: The Last Jedi may never break even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said: The Last Jedi may never break even. LMFAO THE LAST JEDI IS GOING TO MAKE MONEY OFF OF BLU RAY/DVD SALES AND DIGITAL SALES UNTIL THE END OF TIME AND THE MERCHANDISING SALES ARE STILL GONNA BRING IN LIKE 50000 BILLION DOLLARS YET THIS FILM IS NEVER GONNA BREAK EVEN, LMFAO Edited January 6, 2018 by That One Guy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheForceuser707 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I think maybe some of the people here haven't sampled public opinion about this movie. Visit this link and read the responses there. You'll soon appreciate that: TLj isn't going to make lots of money going forward and TLJ will not be saved by foreign receipts. It's also likely that retailers worldwide will suffer losses based on unwanted merchandise. https://youtu.be/EfhC0w0vBCc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 lmfao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 The Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Fuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 fuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, That One Guy said: fuck? 69 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RFF Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I heard a rumor that The Last Jedi might not break even. Sounds crazy, but the rumor has been going around somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
