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Daily Numbers | Thursday 4th Jan | J 6, TLJ 4.4

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13 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

While I agree that China/Asia isn't a huge deal for Star Wars, that's a pretty daft example. Did Wolf Warrior even open wide in North America? Did that studio make any real attempt to majorly cash in other major markets? I don't recall a marketing campaign in the US for it. Maybe it did open wide and was marketed heavily here and I just missed it. Were there big premieres held in the US for it too?

 

Obviously the promotion and release strategy aren't comparable, but the final result is that at the end of the day, it made a fucking mint back home and a pittance here in the states.  And do you think that at the end of the day, it worries them?

 

The other thing to think about is what kind of similar sci-fi movies have actually done well in China?  Like spaceships and space battles and lasers and all that.  Guardians didn't do that well, Star Trek did bad.  They clearly don't care about Star Wars.   

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7 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Obviously the promotion and release strategy aren't comparable, but the final result is that at the end of the day, it made a fucking mint back home and a pittance here in the states.  And do you think that at the end of the day, it worries them?

 

The other thing to think about is what kind of similar sci-fi movies have actually done well in China?  Like spaceships and space battles and lasers and all that.  Guardians didn't do that well, Star Trek did bad.  They clearly don't care about Star Wars.   

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

 

China - 5/5/17 $48,563,935 48.2% $100,663,260

 

 

Pretty good for a very weird sci-fi comedy.

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12 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Obviously the promotion and release strategy aren't comparable, but the final result is that at the end of the day, it made a fucking mint back home and a pittance here in the states.  And do you think that at the end of the day, it worries them?

 

The other thing to think about is what kind of similar sci-fi movies have actually done well in China?  Like spaceships and space battles and lasers and all that.  Guardians didn't do that well, Star Trek did bad.  They clearly don't care about Star Wars.   

Star Trek at least was able to increase with each movie from $9M to $57M to $65M (which might be close to double of what TLJ will do there).

And yeah, that is another problem Sci-Fi is a European, USA, Can, Japan thing.

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    Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days
- (1) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony Pictures $6,021,914 -13% 3,765 $1,599   $208,372,666 28
- (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $4,348,867 -17% 4,232 $1,028   $548,962,602 21
- (3) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $2,382,868 -9% 3,316 $719   $63,104,372 16
- (4) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $1,928,435 -15% 3,468 $556   $75,757,090 14
- (5) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $1,500,441 -13% 3,337 $450   $62,769,118 21
- (6) Coco Walt Disney $1,099,750 -12% 2,104 $523   $186,542,961 44
- (7) Darkest Hour Focus Features $663,440 -15% 943 $704   $22,036,107 44
- (8) All the Money in the World Sony Pictures $594,734 -15% 2,074 $287   $16,581,909 11
- (9) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $478,486 -24% 2,664 $180   $20,730,118 14
- (10) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $468,151 -16% 756 $619   $18,553,464 35
- (11) Wonder Lionsgate $431,663 -17% 1,193 $362   $124,257,086 49
- (12) Father Figures Warner Bros. $321,612 -31% 2,902 $111   $15,510,460 14
- (13) Molly’s Game STX Entertainment $303,140 -15% 234 $1,295   $7,216,560 11
- (14) Lady Bird A24 $204,984 -13% 392 $523   $32,556,091 63
- (15) Justice League Warner Bros. $136,477 -23% 1,215 $112   $226,475,639 49
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25 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Obviously the promotion and release strategy aren't comparable, but the final result is that at the end of the day, it made a fucking mint back home and a pittance here in the states.  And do you think that at the end of the day, it worries them?

 

The other thing to think about is what kind of similar sci-fi movies have actually done well in China?  Like spaceships and space battles and lasers and all that.  Guardians didn't do that well, Star Trek did bad.  They clearly don't care about Star Wars.   

 

I think with the way China behaves and becomes bigger every year, we should count it as a 3rd base of Box office: DOM - OS-C - C.

 

The number for this years highest-grossing movies OS-C are quite interesting:

 

01. BATB - 673,8M
02. FF8 616,2M
03. DM3 - 610,7M
04. Spidey - 429,7M
05. Thor 3 - 425,1M

 

The Last Jedis likely 650-700M OS without China seems a lot more impressive that way.

Edited by Brainbug
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2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I think with the way China behaves and becomes bigger every year, we should count it as a 3rd base of Box office: DOM - OS-C - C.

 

The number for this years highest-grossing movies OS-C are quite interesting:

 

01. BATB - 673,8M
02. FF8 616,2M
03. DM3 - 610,7M
04. Spidey - 429,7M
05. Thor 3 - 425,1M

 

The Last Jedis likely 650-700M OS without China seems a lot more impressive that way.

So TLJ has a small chance at becoming the Top OS-C Film this year.

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6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I think with the way China behaves and becomes bigger every year, we should count it as a 3rd base of Box office: DOM - OS-C - C.

 

The number for this years highest-grossing movies OS-C are quite interesting:

 

01. BATB - 673,8M
02. FF8 616,2M
03. DM3 - 610,7M
04. Spidey - 429,7M
05. Thor 3 - 425,1M

 

The Last Jedis likely 650-700M OS without China seems a lot more impressive that way.

What happens if you do OS-Europe? Is TLJ even top 20?


Or how about OS-UK?

Edited by hw64
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1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

So TLJ has a small chance at becoming the Top OS-C Film this year.

 

A very good chance actually. After this weekend, it will be at roughly 600M OS-Cina after grossing o/u 30M. Its not too hard to imagine another 70M+ from these markets after that to top BATB's 673M.

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2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

What happens if you do OS-Europe? Is TLJ even top 20?


Or how about OS-UK?

 

This post seems trollish to me. China is the only OS market that can be judged differently from the others, because its getting so enormous. It will overtake the DOM market in a few years. Can you say the same about the UK? Or the whole Latin America market? No, you cant.

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10 minutes ago, hw64 said:

What happens if you do OS-Europe? Is TLJ even top 20?

According to BOM it has 340+M in Europe (Most Numbers are including NYE) Total until that Point OS was $522.5M so OS-Europe is $182.5M

In the Total OS list, that would put TLJ at #33, but if you count out Europe for the others, it would be higher on the list, I think in the Top 20.

 

But you can make that for every movie, so every movie looks bad. With the difference that TLJ is a success, not as bit as it could have been, but it brings them money, a lot of money.

Edited by Taruseth
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39 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

This post seems trollish to me. China is the only OS market that can be judged differently from the others, because its getting so enormous. It will overtake the DOM market in a few years. Can you say the same about the UK? Or the whole Latin America market? No, you cant.

Yes and no, the reason China success tend to be treated differently (see resident evils or warcraft giant world box office numbers not leading to some special higher budget sequels announcement) is because success there tend to mean less money for the studio.

 

And not specially for the 25% return (in fact when you look at theater rental - releasing cost, China market is not particularly bad, in the world average for most title), Star wars being an exception because of how good returns it get in some market, like 65% dom and with is giant numbers would prefer paying marketing cost and getting that high share vs China model, but more so for the post-theatrical windows.

 

Has for is it worrysome for Disney that Star Wars didn't became popular in China and some other growing market, I would imagine that it must considering all the efforts they made to help that happen, but would not be surprised if they were ready for that possibility also and saw those as a possible bonus, that failure easier to accept with how much Awaken/Rogue One overperformed in is traditionnal market's.

 

When you make what 2.5 to 6 times more money for the same BO numbers in the US vs China for a movie like Star Wars it is a good reason to threat those number differently.

Edited by Barnack
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Coco and Ferdinand overall numbers so close even with Ferdinand holding over 1000 theaters more.  Also Coco's PTA still above Ferdinand.  I'm surprised that Ferdinand is still holding so many theaters this weekend.

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OS audiences will not show up for an 8th episode of a saga they don't care about. TFA had a curiosity factor, and after that movie was basically a homage to ANH (a movie that Asia / LA hasn't seen or they don't care about) why would they show up again?

 

 Y'all need to remember that watching the OT now (or even when the prequels were released) isn't really that impressive or groundbreaking. Most of these markets were non-existent or really small, while the markets mentioned in this thread (UK, Germany, Japan) were already huge, so if you leave out the OT "amazing-ness"... What's the appeal? The prequels? TFA (which heavily relies on nostalgia)?

 

I'm sure Disney will leave the Skywalkers behind and give SW a fresh new start. 

 

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22 minutes ago, Sal said:

Coco and Ferdinand overall numbers so close even with Ferdinand holding over 1000 theaters more.  Also Coco's PTA still above Ferdinand.  I'm surprised that Ferdinand is still holding so many theaters this weekend.

The lack of new animated PG competition is probably helping Ferdinand to hold on to more theaters, even with it not doing great business. 

Edited by Fancyarcher
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