Weekend Estimates (Page 16 if you care): Jumanji 10.9M | Maze Runner 10.5M | Winchester 9.3M | Showman 7.7M | The Post 5.3M | Hostiles 5.2M

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

4

(4)

The Greatest Showman

20th Century Fox

$7,803,541

-18%

2,588

$3,015

$137,478,713

7

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Should top out at 20m. After the BP nom I was hoping it would pass Boogie Nights' 26.4m for PTA's second biggest grosser but alas.

disappointing performance imo. it's been well received if not greatly received. can't put my finger on why audiences passed over it.

[MCKillswitch123]

46 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Ferdinand

2018/02/02

24

$640,000

-37%

575

$1,113

$81,404,633

8

 

Domestic Box Office	$81,404,633	Details
International Box Office	$186,988,511	Details
Worldwide Box Office	$268,393,144

 

Will add ~1.5m dom with the dollar bump. Don't know how much it has left OS but OS salvaged the 111m production.

 

Yeah, it's pretty staggering how OS ended up saving this movie from total, utter bombage. Still not a huge success by any means, but more than well past the 222M mark necessary to be considered a "not flop".

 

Funny how Fox went from having two holiday releases that were both mega bombs, to having one that was a moderate success and another that was an absolute smash hit (that being TGS, obviously).

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

What is Phantom Thread's potential? Even with the BP nom I don't think 25m+ dom will happen. Could end around All The Money In The World. Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird will end up much higher. Tonya, with 11m prod budget, should do 30m dom.

 

Any idea round what the prod budget was?

 

2017/12/29	26	$216,495		4	$54,124	$527,840	1
2018/01/05	28	$240,240	+11%	6	$40,040	$947,190	2
2018/01/12	20	$1,147,815	+378%	62	$18,513	$2,229,593	3
2018/01/19	12	$3,246,720	+183%	897	$3,620	$6,059,449	4
2018/01/26	17	$2,981,885	-8%	1,021	$2,921	$10,713,694	5
2018/02/02	16	$2,129,155	-29%	1,186	$1,795	$14,163,264	6

The budget was $35M.

[John Marston]

8 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

 

 

glad that Maze Runner managed to have a standard drop rather than the disastrous drop it looked earlier. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

glad that Maze Runner managed to have a standard drop rather than the disastrous drop it looked earlier. 

that too with superbowl sunday. i expect a good hold next weekend.

with 40 cume and a 10.5 2nd weekend, could do 65-70 dom.

(is also looking at 200+ os with france and 3 other markets remaining)

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Week
1	(2)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$10,930,222	-32%	3,352	$3,261	$352,572,974	7
2	(1)	Maze Runner: The Death Cure	20th Century Fox	$10,474,895	-57%	3,793	$2,762	$40,035,094	2
3	new	Winchester	CBS Films	$9,307,626		2,480	$3,753	$9,307,626	1
4	(4)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$7,695,644	-19%	2,588	$2,974	$137,370,816	7
5	(5)	The Post	20th Century Fox	$5,218,122	-43%	2,462	$2,119	$67,202,642	7
6	(3)	Hostiles	Entertainment Studi…	$5,108,228	-49%	2,934	$1,741	$20,822,641	7

[MaxAggressor]

10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Sunday drop ended up at 60% vs 69% estimated. Same weekend drop as RO.

R1 dropped slightly better. (44.55% vs 45.03%)  

 

TLJ lost just 278 theaters, while R1 lost 436 a year back. The overall weekend is 80% of R1's 8th weekend. The overall week will be around (82-83)% of R1. So where does TLJ stabilize w.r.t R1?? The last weekend was 80.72% of R1 and the whole week was 82.14% of R1. Does it stabilize here?? Or will it go lower or will it trend upwards?? Either way, 619 million could be in jeopardy if TLJ continues to hold like that.

[Noctis]

How much more does TLJ have OS and DOM?

[MCKillswitch123]

What are the odds that Fifty Shades Freed does more on OW than the 43.7M achieved by the combined top 5 of this weekend, and same for Black Panther's OD?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

What are the odds that Fifty Shades Freed does more on OW than the 43.7M achieved by the combined top 5 of this weekend, and same for Black Panther's OD?

Not very high. Another drop from Darker seems like a given. I think it lands between $35-40M for the weekend.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Not very high. Another drop from Darker seems like a given. I think it lands between $35-40M for the weekend.

Yeah, I agree, although I won't underestimate the 50 Shades fanbase. Especially w/how much they're emphasizing on this as the conclusion of the trilogy ("don't miss the climax", and shit).

 

And do you think Panther's OD can reach those 43.7M?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, I agree, although I won't underestimate the 50 Shades fanbase. Especially w/how much they're emphasizing on this as the conclusion of the trilogy ("don't miss the climax", and shit).

 

And do you think Panther's OD can reach those 43.7M?

At this point I think Panther is opening higher than Deadpool so nothing's impossible.

[MaxAggressor]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

How much more does TLJ have OS and DOM?

I think TLJ has close to 4.95 million in the domestic market and anywhere between (9-9.5) million OS left in the tank. TLJ probably tops out at 1.335B.

[a2k]

I think Panther's OD will go 50+.

52

47 (-10%)

45 (-4%)

21 (-53%)

= 144 3-day/165 4-day

[MaxAggressor]

 

After 11 days Dangal was at 8.35 million and it finished it's run with 12.39 million. So #2 Bollywood Movie in North America is still a possibility for Padmavaat. But Dangal enjoyed the holiday bump in 2016 and Padmavaat doesn't have that going for it. So this could be a close race for the 2nd rank.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

At this point I think Panther is opening higher than Deadpool so nothing's impossible.

With the hype it has, I think that the low end is probably the Deadpool-Suicide Squad range of the 130's, w/a remote possibility to hit 150M for the 3-day. I want to be conservatively realistic about it, to avoid being one of a million epic meltdowns should BP not hit the massive numbers some are predicting it to, but I would not be shocked if it does hit the 150M high.

 

Anything above that would be MAJOR extra cake, imo. It'd already have annihilated the opening records for superhero solo debuts (Deadpool) - not quite origin stories, though, since BP's origin story was in Civil War - and February (also DP). Over that would be entering Hunger Games at its peak-territory, which for a movie about a comic book character that was obscure to mainstream audiences before Civil War, that is nuts, and it really shows how much of a cultural event this film is.

[MaxAggressor]

10

(9)

Paddington 2

Warner Bros.

$3,277,453

-42%

2,388

$1,372

$36,481,132

4

 

7

(6)

12 Strong

Warner Bros.

$4,706,481

-46%

2,918

$1,613

$37,300,034

3

[Jake Gittes]

59 minutes ago, a2knet said:

disappointing performance imo. it's been well received if not greatly received. can't put my finger on why audiences passed over it.

Haven't seen it yet but by all accounts it's got a good deal of that PTA idiosyncrasy under the tasteful period piece exterior