BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not putting any limit on how well it can hold next weekend and the weekend after. There's nothing of note next weekend and the following is a holiday one. 

Over 40% drops on both weekends.

[MovieMan89]

Lmfao, ofc some of y'all are going in for I2 now that you smell blood. Rest assured, if Ant Man can drop -56% in its second weekend and still end up with a 3.2x multi, there's not a chance in hell an acclaimed Pixar movie is doing worse.

[That One Girl]

On 6/21/2018 at 4:58 PM, MovieMan89 said:

MTE.

 

Here's how I see FK going:

 

Thu: 12m

Fri: 26m

Sat: 29m (+11%)

Sun: 23m (-20%)

90M

 

On 6/22/2018 at 12:14 AM, MovieMan89 said:

12m is exactly what I predicted for previews. Still  not sold on 100

 

On 6/22/2018 at 11:57 AM, MovieMan89 said:

Glad I helped lower your expectations so much that $125-130 for FK is now a cause for celebration.

 

On 6/22/2018 at 12:03 PM, MovieMan89 said:

Nothing about that preview locks more than 120

 

On 6/22/2018 at 10:33 PM, MovieMan89 said:

Yawn. 130-135 is literally the most boring outcome imaginable for FK.

 

20 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean c'mon dude, you're celebrating a 140 opening for a sequel to a 210 opener. That doesn't set off any alarms? 

 

Weekend recap.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekend recap.

And it will still never be half as entertaining as your fuck ups on IW weekend #1, weekend #2, and weekend #3. 

[Brainbug]

@That One Guy youre even saltier than me

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

@That One Guy youre even saltier than me

He got himself in hot water like 20 times over the course of a 2  week span with IW, so believe me he's relishing this lmao. 

 

The biggest irony here is my FK predictions in the game are still going to be dead on while his are way way way too high. 

Edited June 24, 2018 by MovieMan89

[MikeQ]

This is the biggest weekend in June ever, yes, but also we just had an unprecedented back-to-back opener combo. $182.7M and $150M openers back-to-back, with the holdover film still making another $81M in its second weekend. These kinds of concentrated mega box office numbers, heading into early July holidays too, may not happen again for many, many years.

 

Both Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom could be accumulating some really nice dough heading into next weekend, the weekend after it, and the weekdays between the two. Canadians get the Monday after next weekend off for Canada Day (July 1st, Canada's birthday, falls on the Sunday). And Americans get July 4th off which falls on a Wednesday this year - which means Americans will likely have vacation days scattered throughout the week, with some either using holidays to extend next weekend into the Wednesday July 4th, and others taking holidays from the Wednesday into the weekend after. 

 

The last time July 4th fell on the Wednesday was in 2012, and before that in 2007.  In 2007, Transformers opened to big numbers on Tuesday, July 3rd (with $8.8M in Monday previews beforehand), and in 2012 The Amazing Spider-Man also opened to big numbers on Tuesday, July 3rd.

 

This year, no film is opening during the week before the July 4th holiday and taking advantage of those weekdays, like Transformers and The Amazing Spider-Man did. Ant-Man and the Wasp opens on the Friday (July 6th), and nothing of note opens next weekend. Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom have a fairly clear path for the two of them to dominate the box office until Ant-Man joins them.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Brainbug]

Just now, MikeQ said:

This is the biggest weekend in June ever, yes, but also we just had an unprecedented back-to-back opener combo. $182.7M and $150M openers back-to-back, with the holdover film still making another $81M in its second weekend. These kinds of concentrated mega box office numbers, heading into early July holidays too, may not happen again for many, many years.

 

Both Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom could be accumulating some really nice dough heading into next weekend, the weekend after it, and the weekdays between the two. Canadians get the Monday after next weekend off for Canada Day (July 1st, Canada's birthday, falls on the Sunday). And Americans get July 4th off which falls on a Wednesday this year - which means Americans will likely have vacation days scattered throughout the week, with some either using holidays to extend next weekend into the Wednesday July 4th, and others taking holidays from the Wednesday into the weekend after. 

 

The last time July 4th fell on the Wednesday was in 2012, and before that in 2007.  In 2007, Transformers opened to big numbers on Tuesday, July 3rd (with $8.8M in Monday previews beforehand), and in 2012 The Amazing Spider-Man also opened to big numbers on Tuesday, July 3rd.

 

This year, no film is opening during the week before the July 4th holiday and taking advantage of those weekdays, like Transformers and The Amazing Spider-Man did. Ant-Man and the Wasp opens on the Friday (July 6th), and nothing of note opens next weekend. Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom have a fairly clear path for the two of them to dominate the box office until Ant-Man joins them.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

I wish you would post more often.

[That One Girl]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

And it will still never be half as entertaining as your fuck ups on IW weekend #1, weekend #2, and weekend #3. 

 

Yeah I know, I fucked up on Infinity War.  I have admitted as such multiple times.

 

However, I also didn’t make that “no non-Disney film over 100M until Rampage” club and got mad when Universal got Fifty Shades over 100M through perfectly legitimate means.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

He got himself in hot water like 20 times over the course of a 2  week span with IW, so believe me he's relishing this lmao. 

 

The biggest irony here is my FK predictions in the game are still going to be dead on while his are way way way too high. 

 

Why would I need to be relishing in this too much?  I already relished in my accuracy on Black Panther’s and A Quiet Place’s OW’s.

[Jake Gittes]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lmfao, ofc some of y'all are going in for I2 now that you smell blood. Rest assured, if Ant Man can drop -56% in its second weekend and still end up with a 3.2x multi, there's not a chance in hell an acclaimed Pixar movie is doing worse.

3.2 is achievable. 3.5 almost definitely isn't.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Yeah I know, I fucked up on Infinity War.  I have admitted as such multiple times.

 

However, I also didn’t make that “no non-Disney film over 100M until Rampage” club and got mad when Universal got Fifty Shades over 100M through perfectly legitimate means.

[MikeQ]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I wish you would post more often.

Thanks Brainbug

 

Peace,

Mike

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

3.2 is achievable. 3.5 almost definitely isn't.

Far more achievable than sub 3x. All it takes is a soft drop next weekend and 3.5x becomes achievable. And what exactly is going to cause a harsh drop next weekend? The WOM?  

[baumer]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You sure you don't want sub 3.5x? Sub 3x is just asking to lose. 

 

Let's meet in the middle. 3.25.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Far more achievable than sub 3x. All it takes is a soft drop next weekend and 3.5x becomes achievable. And what exactly is going to cause a harsh drop next weekend? The WOM?  

 

It has nothing to do with how well it's received. It's burned off so much demand already. No animated film has ever grossed 600. And this won't either.

[SteveJaros]

FK reaching a billion WW is now a sure thing .... I2 reaching $700m is dead as a doornail, unless we're talking WW. Then it's still in play. 

Edited June 24, 2018 by SteveJaros

[MovieMan89]

Just now, baumer said:

 

It has nothing to do with how well it's received. It's burned off so much demand already. No animated film has ever grossed 600. And this won't either.

The Lion King and Shrek 2 have. Nemo gets close with 3D/PLF added in. I2 crossing 600 wouldn't put it somewhere animation has never gone before in admissions. That would take more like 750m. 

[Brainbug]

@MovieMan89 there is one key difference with Incredibles and other animated hit movies with great WOM: The upfront-demand.

 

It had a record-breaking OW for a reason and quite a frontloaded one for an animated film, considering the Fathers Day advantage it had. Films like Inside Out, Secret Life of Pets, Wall-E, hell even Toy Story 3 or Finding Dory didnt have the same kind of hype and rush factor, thus it was logical that their grosses would be far more spread out, resulting in high Multis. Incredibles, after the 2nd weekend, has already burned of 350M worth of demand - thats simply massive in raw numbers. So even with the amazing WOM, repeat viewings and A+ Cinemascore - it woudnt be surprising to see this having a bit of a lower Multiplier.

 

No animated film has ever opened with 150M+ before Incredibles 2 and it got near 185. Perspective matters like it always does and it crushing the 500M threshold and easily becoming the highest-grossing animated film ever shoudnt be overshadowed by talks about a worse multiplier than other animated hits. Because those movies didnt open with 183M.

[MovieMan89]

Record breaking openings with great WOM only help multis, not hurt them. And no, I2's OW once again isn't so unprecedented in admissions. We just haven't had an animated admissions monster in a long time so people haven't been able to see the natural progression of what it looks like with inflation.