Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[WorkingonaName]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Wonka isn’t a CBM so the demo isn’t 18-35 males

Why are you acting like only one type of demographic watch movies.  

[ThomasNicole]

This discussion has been insufferable 

 

The trailer broke the record for WB, the interest clearly exists 

 

Unless people hate it, it will open very well and be highly succesful. It doesn’t need to make 1.1B again to succeed.

 

Some of you talk about musicals as if Hollywood does them all the time. There’s few examples and most of them are simply bad movies, this is a non-argument.

[TheFlatLannister]

I don’t think people realize how hard it is to recapture a cultural phenomenon. Avatar 2 dropped big in admissions from Avatar. Wakanda forever dropped big from Black Panther. Barbie 2 will drop big time. Top Gun 3 will surely see a sizable drop. 
 

Joker 2 is going to play way more fan driven than joker because it doesn’t have the novelty and it’s a sequel, similar to Wakanda forever which couldn’t pull those non CBM viewers again. 

 

could Joker 2 make $900M? Sure

Will it beat out Joker’s 1.07B? Highly unlikely 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Why are you acting like only one type of demographic watch movies.  

Comparing Wonka to Joker 2 is laughable. Completely different genres, demos, and will have vastly different tracking presales 

[HummingLemon496]

RemindMe! October 4th 2024

 

Oh wait this isn't Reddit

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[TomThomas]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don’t think people realize how hard it is to recapture a cultural phenomenon. Avatar 2 dropped big in admissions from Avatar. Wakanda forever dropped big from Black Panther. Barbie 2 will drop big time. Top Gun 3 will surely see a sizable drop. 
 

Joker 2 is going to play way more fan driven than joker because it doesn’t have the novelty and it’s a sequel, similar to Wakanda forever which couldn’t pull those non CBM viewers again. 

 

could Joker 2 make $900M? Sure

Will it beat out Joker’s 1.07B? Highly unlikely 

What about Inside Out 2 then? It didn't have the novelty and it's a sequel as well.

Edited August 19 by TomThomas

[HummingLemon496]

u/AgentCooper315 on Reddit is saying $350-400M DOM and $600M OS. I think this is reasonable, an increase domestically but a drop OS. Joker did great DOM but OS is where it truly cooked, like BP in NA. 

[HummingLemon496]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don’t think people realize how hard it is to recapture a cultural phenomenon. Avatar 2 dropped big in admissions from Avatar. Wakanda forever dropped big from Black Panther. Barbie 2 will drop big time. Top Gun 3 will surely see a sizable drop. 
 

Joker 2 is going to play way more fan driven than joker because it doesn’t have the novelty and it’s a sequel, similar to Wakanda forever which couldn’t pull those non CBM viewers again. 

 

could Joker 2 make $900M? Sure

Will it beat out Joker’s 1.07B? Highly unlikely 

Chances of beating $1.35B WW?

[thajdikt]

9 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

What about Inside Out 2 then? It didn't have the novelty and it's a sequel as well.

The first one didn’t make 1.3B+. All those other mentioned did. Doing that as the first movie is rare and not something you can necessarily build on.

 

 That said I think Joker can grow

Edited August 19 by thajdikt

[James]

Joker 2 is beating the first one WW. Mark this comment.

[Giorno]

Iirc the female audience for joker in countries like uk and Japan was quite big in comparison to other cbms

[WorkingonaName]

Joker is the only capeshit my mum has ever liked.

[TheFlatLannister]

37 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Chances of beating $1.35B WW?

lol 

[TheFlatLannister]

45 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

What about Inside Out 2 then? It didn't have the novelty and it's a sequel as well.

Animation proves to be immune to this. Nonetheless, inside out was far from a cultural behemoth back in 2015.

 

i still have no idea why an R rated joker is being compared to family flicks 

Edited August 19 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Animation proves to be immune to this. Nonetheless, inside out was far from a cultural behemoth back in 2015.

 

i still have no idea why an R rated joker is being compared to family flicks 

On Reddit I legit saw a "Joker grossed more than Inside Out, so why can't Joker 2 gross more than Inside Out 2?" argument

[TheFlatLannister]

Avatar 2 dropped ~14% from Avatar 1 in terms of $$$

Wakanda Forever dropped ~36% from Black Panther $$$

 

I think Joker lands somewhere in between the two, probably 20% drop if everything goes well (~$850M WW)

Edited August 19 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Avatar 2 dropped ~14% from Avatar 1 in terms of $$$

Wakanda Forever dropped ~36% from Black Panther $$$

 

I think Joker lands somewhere in between the two, probably 20% drop if everything goes well (~$850M WW)

What's your OW/DOM/OS breakdown for that $850M WW?

[TheFlatLannister]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What's your OW/DOM/OS breakdown for that $850M WW?

$110M/$320M/~$550M OS

 

DOM will open bigger but have weaker legs, OS will see a sizable drop is what i'm thinking (no $40M from Russia, Japan is likely not doing $46M again)

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

$110M/$320M/~$550M OS

 

DOM will open bigger but have weaker legs, OS will see a sizable drop is what i'm thinking (no $40M from Russia, Japan is likely not doing $46M again)

No way this is opening as low as $110M