Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[TomThomas]

40 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Then I guess you can praise Joker for at least being unpredictable

 

$70M for GOTG 3 was the low end, that's what it would've done if it was bad. GOTG 3 presales accelerated heavily which is why it missed the <$100M doom and gloom but $118M is still mid

70 and 118 is a huge difference, it's a difference between flop and "it's doing well". Let's see how it goes next few days, The Marvels and The Flash are frontloaded as hell, I don't think they are good comparisons.

[Mojoguy]

15 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yeah, I'm going to be honest, back in April everybody was praising the first trailer like it was some masterpiece but I honestly thought the musical angle was fucking stupid

What's going to hurt this movie is Venom comes out so close. CBM fans just have to wait a little longer if they want see the next safe typical action CBM film. That also looks more kiddy friendly so will get many of that people that loved D&W.

 

Also putting Gaga front and center might be putting off certain fans who get mad when a female takes a up main role on a sequel.

Edited September 10 by Mojoguy

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, TomThomas said:

70 and 118 is a huge difference, it's a difference between flop and "it's doing well". Let's see how it goes next few days, The Marvels and The Flash are frontloaded as hell, I don't think they are good comparisons.

When was the last time a CBM opened significantly higher than what the first few hours of sales suggested? 

[TomThomas]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If this does end up flopping, I'd go with the "Joker 1 was a zeitgeist hit that clearly struck a chord upon release but at the same time was such a standalone that no one left it wondering when Part 2 was coming out" theory. Not every movie that makes a billion dollars calls for a follow-up.

I think it would spell doom for Gladiator 2, kinda similar situation to this, but Gladiator trailer wasn't even well received.

[HummingLemon496]

Sequels to lightning in a bottle movies declining are very, very common.

 

The Avengers ($1518M) to Avengers: Age of Ultron ($1402M)

Jurassic World ($1671M) to Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($1310M)

Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($2068M) to Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($1332M)

 

 

 

[TomThomas]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

When was the last time a CBM opened significantly higher than what the first few hours of sales suggested? 

I dunno, this is CBM in name only unlike those, it could go either way.

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I think it would spell doom for Gladiator 2, kinda similar situation to this, but Gladiator trailer wasn't even well received.

Gladiator is focusing entirly on your dad's nostagia be a huge hit. It's also the only guy friendly film between Wicked and Moana, so it has that going for it.

[HummingLemon496]

$300M DOM seems out of the picture. Basically locked that 2 out of the top 3 DOM movies this year will be animated.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I think it would spell doom for Gladiator 2, kinda similar situation to this, but Gladiator trailer wasn't even well received.

I think Gladiator 2 is an entirely different kind of gamble from this. 24 years between movies v a mere 5.

[TomThomas]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Gladiator is focusing entirly on your dad's nostagia be a huge hit. It's also the only guy friendly film between Wicked and Moana, so it has that going for it.

It's also unnecessary sequel to a huge zeigeist hit, but this time without its lead star and panned trailer. I don't see dad being super excited about this all things considered. If Joker collapses, it will too.

[filmlover]

FWIW the previous movie did ultimately bring in an audience that doesn't immediately go all in on comic book movies due to all the hype surrounding it, so there's always a chance it's a tad backloaded. Then again, I'm pretty sure that demo is also the one that has the smallest incentive to come back for this, especially when all (or at least most of) the variables surrounding that movie are nonexistent this time around.

Edited September 10 by filmlover

[Bob Train]

14 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

When was the last time a CBM opened significantly higher than what the first few hours of sales suggested? 

If you count Deadpool it would be that because the expectation was $160-$170m after day 1 but it opened to $211m. I guess you could count NWH too in the same category.

 

There’s also Venom 2 which opened much higher than expected. 

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

It's also unnecessary sequel to a huge zeigeist hit, but this time without its lead star and panned trailer. I don't see dad being super excited about this all things considered. If Joker collapses, it will too.

No? The 2 movies are unrelated. Joker 2 seems like the inverse of the original and rebuked it according to some reviews, whereas Gladiator 2 seems more like the original in spirit.

[Jake Gittes]

The first one being awful and making a billion dollars and this one being good and flopping, would be the grandest joke of them all.

[Bob Train]

10 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$300M DOM seems out of the picture. Basically locked that 2 out of the top 3 DOM movies this year will be animated.

Probably but idk about locked. Beetlejuice would beat DM4 if it has >3.2x multiplier which is on the high end but definitely not impossible.

 

Of course that’s assuming Moana 2 doesn’t beat DM4 but it 100% could and probably will. Point is it’s still up in the air.

 

[filmlover]

I think they really thought Gaga was enough of a hook to ensure the grosses wouldn't fall, and to be fair, there was a lot of buzz surrounding her casting when she was first announced. They just weren't able to sustain that momentum up until the release of the movie, it seems. Like, are even her devoted stans excited for this? Felt like there was more passion from her fan base when House of Gucci was being released. But even if this fails, no one's gonna pin it on her, WB and Todd Phillips will be the ones who receive the overwhelming majority of the blame.

Edited September 10 by filmlover

[HummingLemon496]

9 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If you count Deadpool it would be that because the expectation was $160-$170m after day 1 but it opened to $211m. I guess you could count NWH too in the same category.

 

There’s also Venom 2 which opened much higher than expected. 

EmpireCity said $200M+ for Deadpool after the first day of sales. No Way Home was called as a potential $250M movie a couple days after tickets went on sale

 

 

 

Venom 2 is the only legit overperformance there, but that's because Venom is in the same genre as Jurassic World, dumb fun so it has a lot of walk ups

[TomThomas]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

No? The 2 movies are unrelated. Joker 2 seems like the inverse of the original and rebuked it according to some reviews, whereas Gladiator 2 seems more like the original in spirit.

It doesn't matter, as I said both are unnecessary sequels to standalone Oscar winning zeitgeist hits. If people don't want it, they won't come out to see it. I usually ignore "nobody asked for this" comments, but maybe I shouldn't have.

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

 

 

20 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

It's also unnecessary sequel to a huge zeigeist hit, but this time without its lead star and panned trailer. I don't see dad being super excited about this all things considered. If Joker collapses, it will too.

Any excuse to take your shots at Gladiator 2 . These 2 movies are not related in any way.  That's not to say that it will not be another mediocre Ridley Scott movie  but the early indifference for Joker means nothing to it.. They do not even appeal to the same core audience/

[TomThomas]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

They do not even appeal to the same core audience/

They appeal to... adults? And since first Joker appealed to non-comic book crowd, it might appeal to the same adults.