WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[WrathOfHan]

October 9

 

Death on the Nile: Jesus, this will be out almost 3 years after Orient Express. Time flies! Depending on the marketing campaign, I think this can stay close to OE’s total if not increase, but I could also see it flailing down to 50M. It’s all up to Disney’s marketing.  25/90 (3.6x)

 

Fatale: Deon Taylor doesn’t have a great box office track record. Based on his last couple films along with the cast, this feels like another low grosser. 5/12.5 (2.5x)

 

Respect: Jennifer Hudson and Oscar 2? Hmm. MGM already released a trailer for this, so they will not be slacking come October. Expect this to be a very buzzy film. 35/105 (3x)

 

The Witches: This sounds great, but Zemeckis’ box office track record has been piss poor for a long time now. This could be his first hit since Flight depending on the energy WB puts into it. For now, I’ll go low. 20/60 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

October 16

 

Snake Eyes: Oh Paramount. You’re relying on a dead franchise when you have solid adult hits (on paper) this time of year. Never change. GI Joe feels irrelevant, and given how audiences have been rejecting useless sequels, I have very low expectations here. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

Halloween Kills: Speaking of useless sequels, here is another movie nobody asked for! Halloween 2018 was a fine return to the franchise’s roots, but it had a one-time novelty. Outside of diehard fans, I have no idea who will be interested in the “last” two movies of the franchise. I’m going out on a limb and predicting a sub 100M total. 40/85 (2.13x)

[WrathOfHan]

October 23

 

Everybody’s Talking About Jamie: This sounds like a cult musical in the making. I don’t see this having much success domestically, but in the UK it may do well. 10/30 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

I'll post November when I wake up and December sometime before the Globes.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 12/31/2019 at 8:29 PM, Eric Laurence said:

40/135 (3.37x)

This is way low. Minions are no Pets. They are established brand. I don't see missing 65mn to 220mn if its 3 days weekend. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 1/1/2020 at 7:50 AM, WrathOfHan said:

I’m thinking a similar sized drop as another Universal franchise (F8 to Hobbs and Shaw). 

That will be $200mn, more likely than 130.

[Neucentro]

October would not be a weak month at all based on you guys' predictions. It would be second only to 2018.

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

October would not be a weak month at all based on you guys' predictions. It would be second only to 2018.

They were about 25% too optimistic on average last year for medium-big movies, though I didn't look at how predictions for small ones fared.

[Neucentro]

Han might be too high on Death on the Nile and Venom. Both are too optimistic about The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Neucentro

[Cooper Legion]

To be fair, Oct 2018 broke records largely on the back of Halloween, ASIB, and Venom. And Oct 2020 has sequels to 2/3rds of those. So even if the yearly gross is kind of anemic October may do solid compared to the notoriously dry non-2018 Octobers.

[reddevil19]

11 hours ago, John Marston said:

We won’t know for sure until it comes out. Trailer seems to be getting a positive response everywhere and Jumanji shows you can make a sequel to anything 

I'll split the difference. Ghostbuster's going hard on nostalgia and it will lack the easy spectacle of Jumanji, so I reckon it'll be a flop OS, but double the 2016 domestically. So, I'd say 220-250 DOM and 130 OS. 

[WrathOfHan]

November 6

 

The Eternals: BUFF KUMAIL EVERYONE. The Eterrnals has received a lot of buzz since D23 as it has an incredible cast directed by a promising new director. It also sounds very different than any other MCU movie, which is refreshing for the franchise. Being the only big action movie of the month will help it greatly (I’m not forgetting anything), and it will establish itself as the event of the month. 110/330 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

November 13

 

Clifford the Big Red Dog: Well, at least this design isn’t atrocious. I have a feeling this will be another Dora at the box office. I have no clue how relevant the brand is to young kids today, especially because it’s been 5 years since the last book was released, and people like me who watched and read this series in their childhood are too old to care about it now like Dora. Clifford’s design didn’t generate much buzz when it dropped a couple weeks ago, so that is proof older audiences don’t care. It also has family competition from Raya over Thanksgiving. The film might be very good, but garnering interest will be a challenge. 15/60 (4x)

 

[reddevil19]

 

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

November 6

 

The Eternals: BUFF KUMAIL EVERYONE. The Eterrnals has received a lot of buzz since D23 as it has an incredible cast directed by a promising new director. It also sounds very different than any other MCU movie, which is refreshing for the franchise. Being the only big action movie of the month will help it greatly (I’m not forgetting anything), and it will establish itself as the event of the month. 110/330 (3x)

I see what you did there...

November 20, 2020

 

Theatrical. Godzilla vs. Kong is scheduled to be released in the United States on November 20, 2020, in 2D, 3D, and IMAX. 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by reddevil19

[WrathOfHan]

November 20

 

Godzilla vs Kong: What a weird fucking franchise the Monsterverse is. Godzilla 14 was hyped excessively then hated by audiences. Kong Skull Island wasn’t generating any buzz until a couple days before release when it suddenly became a hit with all ages. King of the Monsters repeated the trajectory of G14 except with significantly lower returns. The concept of Godzilla vs Kong is enough to grab eyes, but this franchise has gone through so much random stuff. Being delayed half a year doesn’t help my outlook either. If this is good, I can see a total in the mid to high 100s, but this franchise’s track record is making me go much lower. 45/110 (2.44x)

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

November 13

 

Clifford the Big Red Dog: Well, at least this design isn’t atrocious. I have a feeling this will be another Dora at the box office. I have no clue how relevant the brand is to young kids today, especially because it’s been 5 years since the last book was released, and people like me who watched and read this series in their childhood are too old to care about it now like Dora. Clifford’s design didn’t generate much buzz when it dropped a couple weeks ago, so that is proof older audiences don’t care. It also has family competition from Raya over Thanksgiving. The film might be very good, but garnering interest will be a challenge. 15/60 (4x)

 

It's from the director of The Road Chip Han.

[WrathOfHan]

November 25

 

King Richard: This sounds like a great prestigious family film for Thanksgiving. The Williams Sisters are two of the most popular athletes of all time, and a biopic about their early lives with Will Smith as their father sounds like an absolute winner. However, I don’t know if this date will stick as it hasn’t entered production yet and has nobody cast outside of Big Willie. Being a mid-size film means it can be made pretty fast though, and hopefully it comes out this year. 20/30/120 (6x from 3 day/4x from 5 day)

 

Raya and the Last Dragon: Wow, has it really been 4 years since the last original Disney animation? Time flies. Raya’s plot gives off major Moana vibes, and given it’s releasing over the same time period, that’s a good baseline for it. If the movie is really special and well-received, I can see it hitting 300M. It’s the first animated film since September as well, which will be a massive boost for it. 60/80/270 (4.5x from 3 day/3.38x from 5 day)

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

December 11

 

Samaritan: Julius Avery made a fun genre movie with Overlord, and this sounds like a good take on the superhero genre. It has Stallone too! I expect the December schedule to change a bit, but if no other film takes this date, I’d be very curious to see how it fares. This sounds like it has a lot of potential for the holiday season. 20/100 (5x)

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

December 11

 

Samaritan: This Lionsgate-Stallone vehicle releasing a week before the holiday rush doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence, mainly because all the December movies coming on the 18th won’t help it when it comes to Christmas legs. But hey, Julius Avery is a talent, so I could very well be wrong. At the very least, it'll do better than In the Heart of the Sea. That's something. 15/45 (3x)

[Eric Prime]

December 18

 

Coming 2 America: Eddie Murphy’s having a bit of a comeback thanks to his SNL hosting and the success of Dolemite is My Name on Netflix. And while Coming to America wasn’t Murphy’s biggest success, it still get to about 285M with inflation, and I think there’s plenty of people who would be excited to see Murphy return in a new comedy again. Helps that Dolemite director Craig Brewer is at the helm. 15/90 (6x)

 

Dune: Am I being overconfident in this movie solely because my baby is in this? Well...yeah, but I have other reasons. While Doctor Sleep didn’t get much help being put into a “better” slot, but having this movie put into December does at least seem to indicate WB likes what they see enough to put it in a tentpole position like this, and Denis Villeneuve is beloved. As always, this stuff will depend on the marketing, but I feel like WB will know how to sell the cast, action, and spectacle in a way that will entice people. So yeah, let’s be optimistic here. 50/230 (4.6x)

 

West Side Story: Ansolo is haunting us again baybee. And yeah, this seems like an easy candidate for a solid hit. West Side Story is iconic and Spielberg is Spielberg, while this also fits as being a very easy to sell tentpole for adults and seniors. It’s pretty much guaranteed to be big with Grandmas the world over. Mary Poppins Returns did about 170M two years ago, and I think that’s a good indication for this movie here. 30/170 (5.67x)