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WrathOfHan

WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

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2019 was a crazy year for the box office. We actually had a 300M opener. James Cameron got dethroned. Society became shook by a billion-dollar R rated Scorsese ripoff. Scorsese shook basement dwellers everywhere. Bong hits are strong as hell. Star Wars has become the Baby Yoda franchise. Most importantly, blockbusters kinda sucked this year! The decade is closing out with the worst selection of highest grossing films, and audiences are finally taking notice. With a few exceptions like Joker, Us, and John Wick, Disney has been dominating the market with their brand power, but even their films have been a bit shaky this year (don’t @ me this isn’t franchise wars). 2020 does not have anything on paper that could be a gigantic grosser, but the year will heavily rely on the quality of blockbusters. If we get a great slate, the returns will be lovely. If we get a weak slate, prepare for the “HOLLYWOOD IS DOOMED” thinkpieces.

 

2019 was also just a crazy year for me in general. As you’ve probably seen, I have not been very active on the forums this year. I finally started college and have been swept up in the madness of the American academic system, and that has left me with little time or focus towards tracking numbers, attendance, and the state of CBMs. On top of that, I’ve been dealing with a lot of personal issues between my family, mental health, and relationships (no, I’m still single; some things never change, after all). It’s been a really strange year with a few regrets but a lot of positive developments, and I’m transforming everything I’ve experienced into something really great. I truly have a sense of where I want to go in my life for the first time, and that excited me so much.

 

With that personal anecdote out of the way, let’s kick off the 20s RIGHT. We’re gonna have some great fun in this thread and stir up some controversy. Just like JJ Abrams and D&D, I’m making this thread up as I go alone, so don’t take this too seriously (I can’t speak for Eric though). Brace yourselves.

 

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January 3

The Grudge: Another early January horror movie is thrown in. This time, it's one that was supposed to come out last year (that’s gonna be a pattern for this month btw). It wouldn't surprise me if this one surprises. The trailer is effective enough, and Raimi's producer credit doesn't hurt. But on the other hand, is The Grudge really that exciting of a brand to people, or something people are nostalgic for? I'm just gonna say it does on par with The Forest or Underworld. 13/28 (2.15x)

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January 3

 

The Grudge: Nobody asked for this. Bored teens will show up. It’s a traditional first week of the year horror film. However, that cast is rock solid, and with Raimi producing, maybe it won’t be horrible? Either way, I’m expecting standard numbers here. 15/35 (2.33x)

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January 10
 

1917: Like with any expansion, it's hard to really pinpoint what is going to happen, especially with no PTAs to base it off of. But this should do quite well. Not just because of the strong awards attention the movie has already recieved, but its theatrical quality. The "no-cut" editing and the scope of the film makes it seem like something special and worthy of seeing on the biggest screen possible. Lone Survivor did about 125M a few years back, so cutting out a couple dollars to compensate for the lack of starpower....30/110 (3.67x)

 

The Informer: This went through two 2019 release dates, has poor reviews, and zero marketing. I rest my case. 2/6

 

Just Mercy: Jamie Foxx aside, and even then not that much, there hasn't been a whole lot of discussion from critics and awards pundits, so I don't think there's going to be a lot of excitement for this. But reviews are good and it should be a quality crowdpleaser, though it will definitely not turn the tide when it comes to Warner Bros. and adult dramas. 15/50 (3.33x)

 

Like a Boss: Well, would you look at that. Like Grudge and Informer, we have yet another January release that was intended for last year. But this should do better. I didn’t care for the trailer, but director Miguel Arteta has made decent stuff before, and all three leads have their fanbases, so even if the film is bad, it can at least coast on that. It won’t do anything exceptional, but I think it’ll do fine enough and make a tidy little sum. 15/45 (3x)

 

Underwater: It's a horror movie that was filmed in 2017, hasn't seen the light of day since then, and has TJ Miller, the unfunniest man alive. Yikes burger! 5/10 (2x)

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January 17
 

Bad Boys For Life: Does anyone really care about this? Bad Boys 2 was already a long time ago, but do people really want what looks to be a watered-down, Bayless sequel? Buzz feels super muted at this point and the marketing doesn’t look like it’s hooking people. It could probably still get to at least 20M thanks to the name and Will Smith, but this isn't hot. 25/30/70 (2.8x, 2.33x)

 

Dolittle: This won’t be as big of a bomb as the film looked like on paper and after it got pushed back several months. But a hit? Probably not. I have sincere doubts about the movie’s quality, and I don't think kids are all that interested. Trailer views are massive, though it could be inflated by RDJ’s presence in his first post-Endgame role. Regardless, the cast is still big, and I guess it’s goofy and crazy-looking enough to make people curious to check it out so I guess it’ll do fine enough. 35/42/120 (3.43x, 2.86x)

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January 24

 

The Gentlemen: The follow-up to Guy Ritchie’s billion-dollar smash, this should do fine. Reviews are good, trailer’s fun, cast is cool. No breakout, but it’ll play well for the next couple weeks. 12/40 (3.33x)

 

The Last Full Measure: I didn't even know what this movie was until today. Apparently it's a war movie and it has a bunch of Marvel actors and Christopher Plummer? I don't know. I didn't care about this, and I'm pretty sure most people won't. 3/9 (3x)

 

The Turning: There’s one or two okay scares in the trailer, and the cast is decent. Butthis looks a little too generic, and with all the horror competition, this doesn’t seem to have enough of the goods to make it stand out. Not much else to add frankly. 8/20 (2.5x)

 

Also apparently there's a movie called Run that's supposed to open on this weekend? There's no trailer in sight, so I'm just gonna assume it's getting pushed back.

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January 31

 

Gretel & Hansel: For what it is, this could do okay. The director is Oz Perkins, who has done good stuff before, and the trailer is effective enough in both getting good scares and laying out the story. I don’t think this can recreate the success of The Witch, but it should be good enough to make people want to check it out and do okay business for MGM. 7/20 (2.86x)

 

The Rhythm Section: Sorry @Nova, but this is a no1curr, and even Paramount knows it. It's not even worth giving an analysis towards. 12/30 (2.5x)

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January 10

 

The Informer: Throwback to when this was on last year’s controversial predictions for April 2019! Back then, I did not have high expectations, and today, I have an even worse outlook on how this will do! RIP Aviron! 1.5/3 (2x)

 

Like a Boss: This looks like a painfully generic comedy from the trailer, and it never garners any reactions in my audiences until the end’s gross-out moment. Tiffany Haddish is a big plus for its drawing power, but I doubt it will be able to outgross Nobody’s Fool, which had the added bonus of Tyler Perry with it. The best case scenario is a 40M total, but I am going with a much lower gross. 10/24 (2.4x)

 

Underwater: KStew, I see you trying to get back into mainstream cinema, but that just isn’t working fam. Take some notes from Robert Pattinson and work with NOLAN. I feel like Underwater could have a lot more box office potential if the trailer wasn’t so generic. If this was the first weekend of January horror flick, it would probably do much better. Here, it will just get lost in the crowd, especially with 1917 stealing basically all of its audience. 8/20 (2.5x)

 

Just Mercy: The 2019 expansions have a chance of making double the amount of any 2020 releases this weekend. I don’t think Just Mercy will quite reach that, but it definitely has a chance. If Jamie Foxx gets an Oscar nomination, it will be perfect timing for the film’s expansion. A total above Harriet should be achievable. 15/55 (3.67x)

 

 

 

1917: Mendes is telling Nolan to hold his beer here. With 1917 being a major awards contender and likely Best Picture nominee, it has tons of buzz behind it right now. January is the perfect time for prestigious war movies based off American Sniper and Lone Survivor’s successes, and I expect 1917 to mirror the latter’s gross fairly closely. 35/140 (4x)

Edited by WrathOfHan
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January 17

 

BAD BOYS FOR LIFE: Holy shit, Sony is finally releasing this and it’s only three weeks away? Good god. While I question how much appeal this franchise has in 2020, the combo of Will Smith and Martin Lawrence is still undeniable. It probably won’t make an insane amount of money, but it’ll probably be the year’s first 100M film along with Dolittle. 35/40/100 (2.86x from 3 day/2.5x from 4 day)

 

Dolittle: Based on the troubled production history, I am not expecting this to be a good movie. However, the trailer has been ggenerating buzz and normally plays well with audiences, and seeing RDJ in a non-Marvel role for the first time in 6 years is a draw itself. Dolittle also has a month without any family competition until the blue furry dashes into theaters. It’ll do well for the budget (unless the budget is 200M). 30/35/110 (3.67x from 3 day/3.14x from 4 day)

 

The Last Full Measure: This should’ve been delayed because 1917 will eat it alive. Audiences will only care about one war film. 3/4/8 (2.67x from 3 day/2x from 4 day)

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January 24

 

The Gentlemen: This currently has the best reviews of Guy Ritchie’s career, which isn’t a high bar, but that is still a great sign for the film’s prospects. Unless STX does some insane marketing after Christmas, it will probably have a standard January adult action gross like The Commuter. One benefit is that it opens in the UK three weeks earlier, so WOM can build from foreign audiences. 12/36 (3x)

 

Run: This isn’t coming out. No prediction

 

The Turning: God, I hate this trailer. Everything about it looks so obnoxious between good child actors being wasted and an air of faux seriousness surrounding it. Given the month is stacked with horror, I think this will be the biggest casualty. 6/12 (2x)

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January 31

 

Greta and Hansel: The first time I saw this trailer, I was surprised it was attempting to steal The Witch’s aesthetic. Silly film, one cannot overpower Robert Eggers. However, the film at least stands out compared to the other horror fare this month, so it has that going for it. It’s also generated a fair amount of buzz online with over 10M trailer views on YT and social media tracking. Given it’s releasing on Superbowl weekend, I have some reservations but would not be surprised if it had a high-teens opening. 12/30 (2.5x)

 

The Rhythm Section: Ah, I also remember you from last year’s controversial predictions! Being delayed nearly a full year is never a good sign, but I am somewhat excited for this film. Blake Lively and Jude Law are always good, but the two of them together? Yum. Sterling K Brown is there too! Unfortunately, the trailer makes it look a bit jumbled, and online buzz has been muted. My expectations are low. 8/20 (2.5x)

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31 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

January 31

 

The Rhythm Section: Sorry @Nova, but this is a no1curr, and even Paramount knows it. It's not even worth giving an analysis towards. 12/30 (2.5x)

I don’t know what you’re apologizing for. Even I don’t care for this anymore :P I’ve only posted in that thread recently because I wanted to state my disappointment in Paramount’s handling of their only female directed film of the year :ph34r: 

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