The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[ZattMurdock]

Quote

Marvel boss Kevin Feige, also by video, introduced an exclusive clip of November’s The Marvels and mused, “There is so much to look forward to,” including 2024’s Deadpool 3 with Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, and next summer’s Captain America: Brave New World with Anthony Mackie taking up the shield. 

Source: https://deadline.com/2023/06/disney-a-haunting-in-venice-kenneth-branagh-wish-musafa-cineeurope-1235422442/

[SpiderByte]

Betting we get a trailer for this in the next two weeks or so timed to screen in front of Barbie.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Betting we get a trailer for this in the next two weeks or so timed to screen in front of Barbie.

That would be sweet.

[SpiderByte]

 

new trailer coming, presumably with Barbie, so this week or next.

 

[JustLurking]

Yeah playing this trailer with Barbie is an excellent move. Lots of exposure and of the kind of demo they want as well.

[Belakor]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Yeah playing this trailer with Barbie is an excellent move. Lots of exposure and of the kind of demo they want as well.

CBM audience has been mostly male dudes in their 20s and 30s, that is the problem of the movie, is targeted towards females but they simply don't care abut SH movies. This is why we do not have female SH movies breaking out or getting made, other than Captain Marvel, but she also had the brand on her movie so IDK.

Edited July 9, 2023 by Belakor

[Cooper Legion]

Seem to recall a lil CBM in June 2017 doing alright for itself with a female audience

[emoviefan]

27 minutes ago, Belakor said:

CBM audience has been mostly male dudes in their 20s and 30s, that is the problem of the movie, is targeted towards females but they simply don't care abut SH movies. This is why we do not have female SH movies breaking out or getting made, other than Captain Marvel, but she also had the brand on her movie so IDK.

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

Seem to recall a lil CBM in June 2017 doing alright for itself with a female audience

That had insane hype as the first cbm aimed at females and it delievered a great movie

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

That had insane hype as the first cbm aimed at females and it delievered a great movie

CM1 also did great for itself as the 2nd CBM aimed at females. Something tells me that a 3rd big theatrical release CBM aimed more at females in 6 years isn’t exactly saturating an underserved part of the market.   
 

Certainly the movie being good vs bad vs great is also a very important factor.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

CM1 also did great for itself as the 2nd CBM aimed at females. Something tells me that a 3rd big theatrical release CBM aimed more at females in 6 years isn’t exactly saturating an underserved part of the market.   
 

Certainly the movie being good vs bad vs great is also a very important factor.

I agree somewhat, but don't expect it to beat Barbie domestic.

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Maggie said:

I agree somewhat, but don't expect it to beat Barbie domestic.

We will see

[toutvabien]

2 hours ago, LegionGPT said:

Seem to recall a lil CBM in June 2017 doing alright for itself with a female audience

And let's not forget the mommies who made Aquaman a huge hit over the holidays in 2018.

[SpiderByte]

4 hours ago, Belakor said:

CBM audience has been mostly male dudes in their 20s and 30s, that is the problem of the movie, is targeted towards females but they simply don't care abut SH movies. This is why we do not have female SH movies breaking out or getting made, other than Captain Marvel, but she also had the brand on her movie so IDK.

So other than the movie this is a sequel to, okay

[Willowra]

22 hours ago, Belakor said:

CBM audience has been mostly male dudes in their 20s and 30s, that is the problem of the movie, is targeted towards females but they simply don't care abut SH movies. This is why we do not have female SH movies breaking out or getting made, other than Captain Marvel, but she also had the brand on her movie so IDK.

I agree with you, but this is not the only problem The Marvels is facing; there are other problems too.
1. Captain Marvel wasn't great; it was just an okay movie. If they had made a great movie like Iron Man, GOTG, or Deadpool, things would have been different for The Marvels today.
2. A section of Marvel hardcore fans hate or dislike Captain Marvel/Brie Larson for various sexist and non-sexist reasons.
3. Marvel Studios is treating her as just another character, probably because they want to first establish her as a team player and a flawed character before giving her any importance in the future.
4. And because of the third reason, GA is less interested in the movie. Less important=less interest=less awareness.
5. Marvel didn't establish her in the MCU when they had that chance in Endgame. Less popular=less interest.
6. Change of movie title is also a big reason why movie awareness is low.

 

So sins of the past, a section of hardcore fans hating her, no support from Marvel Studios, not an established character, change of title—all these could lead to disaster at the box office.

 

Box office prediction: I think it would perform worse in the overseas market than the domestic market, as the hype in the OS seems less to me.
Worst case: 140m dom, 130m OS, 270m total
Best case: 200m dom, 190m OS, 390m total

My prediction could go totally wrong (my points will still be valid, though) if Marvel successfully sells the movie to a section of hardcore fans (who don't hate her) as well as to GA through a good marketing campaign.

[Claudio]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

Box office prediction: I think it would perform worse in the overseas market than the domestic market, as the hype in the OS seems less to me.
Worst case: 140m dom, 130m OS, 270m total
Best case: 200m dom, 190m OS, 390m total

Yeah, it’s not gonna happen in a million timelines. A sequel of Captain Marvel grossing less than all of the Ant Man movies including the worst MCU movie of all time with disastrous reception and legs, AntMan Quantumania (even the best scenarios)???!! 
 

Ain’t now way brother.

[LegionWrex]

14 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Yeah, it’s not gonna happen in a million timelines. A sequel of Captain Marvel grossing less than all of the Ant Man movies including the worst MCU movie of all time with disastrous reception and legs, AntMan Quantumania (even the best scenarios)???!! 
 

Ain’t now way brother.

Yeah this thing is making $600M on the minimum, there will likely be a drop off (Captain Marvel 100% did benefit from the Endgame hype) but it will be a much bigger hit then Ant-Man unless it gets like absolutely disastrous reception (like 35-25% on RT levels disastrous).

[toutvabien]

18 hours ago, Willowra said:

I agree with you, but this is not the only problem The Marvels is facing; there are other problems too.
1. Captain Marvel wasn't great; it was just an okay movie. If they had made a great movie like Iron Man, GOTG, or Deadpool, things would have been different for The Marvels today.
2. A section of Marvel hardcore fans hate or dislike Captain Marvel/Brie Larson for various sexist and non-sexist reasons.
3. Marvel Studios is treating her as just another character, probably because they want to first establish her as a team player and a flawed character before giving her any importance in the future.
4. And because of the third reason, GA is less interested in the movie. Less important=less interest=less awareness.
5. Marvel didn't establish her in the MCU when they had that chance in Endgame. Less popular=less interest.
6. Change of movie title is also a big reason why movie awareness is low.

 

So sins of the past, a section of hardcore fans hating her, no support from Marvel Studios, not an established character, change of title—all these could lead to disaster at the box office.

 

Box office prediction: I think it would perform worse in the overseas market than the domestic market, as the hype in the OS seems less to me.
Worst case: 140m dom, 130m OS, 270m total
Best case: 200m dom, 190m OS, 390m total

My prediction could go totally wrong (my points will still be valid, though) if Marvel successfully sells the movie to a section of hardcore fans (who don't hate her) as well as to GA through a good marketing campaign.

I think even with Quantumania-level reviews this does still open just sub $100m and pull $200m dom and ~$500m worldwide.

 

But I expect it to get pretty good reviews and WoM. I see it closer to $300m+ dom and $700m+ worldwide.

[YM!]

18 hours ago, Willowra said:

I agree with you, but this is not the only problem The Marvels is facing; there are other problems too.
1. Captain Marvel wasn't great; it was just an okay movie. If they had made a great movie like Iron Man, GOTG, or Deadpool, things would have been different for The Marvels today.
2. A section of Marvel hardcore fans hate or dislike Captain Marvel/Brie Larson for various sexist and non-sexist reasons.
3. Marvel Studios is treating her as just another character, probably because they want to first establish her as a team player and a flawed character before giving her any importance in the future.
4. And because of the third reason, GA is less interested in the movie. Less important=less interest=less awareness.
5. Marvel didn't establish her in the MCU when they had that chance in Endgame. Less popular=less interest.
6. Change of movie title is also a big reason why movie awareness is low.

 

So sins of the past, a section of hardcore fans hating her, no support from Marvel Studios, not an established character, change of title—all these could lead to disaster at the box office.

 

Box office prediction: I think it would perform worse in the overseas market than the domestic market, as the hype in the OS seems less to me.
Worst case: 140m dom, 130m OS, 270m total
Best case: 200m dom, 190m OS, 390m total

My prediction could go totally wrong (my points will still be valid, though) if Marvel successfully sells the movie to a section of hardcore fans (who don't hate her) as well as to GA through a good marketing campaign.

Get better bait.

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Get better bait.

Which point you don't agree?