The Batman | March 4, 2022 | Warner Bros. | Certified Fresh on RT | 7th Most Profitable Movie of 2023

[Juby]

Some numbers:

 

Batman Begins (previous Batman reboot) 5-day opening was $72.9 mln (atp. in 2005 = $6.41). With the 2021 average ticket price ($9.37) that would be around $106.5 mln.

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming (the most successful superhero reboot so far) opening weekend was $117 million. Today it would be around $122.25 mln.

 

Suicide Squad (the biggest opening for a DC film after BvS) opening weekend was $133.7 mln = around $144.81 mln today.

 

Ofc. it's all based on average prices, but The Batman might have much more theaters, screens, IMAXes, ScreenX, etc. so the differance would be bigger. $110-150 mln OW is the reasonable target Imho, and with the very positive reviews from the critics maybe more.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Maybe it's more like The Amazing Spider-Man in 2012

[Juby]

It's not. Completely different release conditions (TASM was between The Avengers and TDKR, and was released on Tuesday), and different hype level (much lower). The better example is Man of Steel - highly anticipated return of the DC icon (I rememeber the hype, it was a big deal that summer). Opening weekend with Thursday previews - $128.68 mln, with today ATP. around $148.3 million. So, it's still in $110-150M range. With great reviews and +4400 theaters, I believe The Batman might open over $150 million (even being dark, nearly 3 hours movie).

 

There are only 4 wide releases in March after that and non of them is the direct competition for Batman. Legs should be fine, maybe better than last Planet of the Apes film and Nolan's TDKR.

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Juby

[Caesar]

25 minutes ago, Juby said:

The better example is Man of Steel - highly anticipated return of the DC icon (I rememeber the hype, it was a big deal that summer).

It was a big deal at the time because it was advertised using Nolan's name (at the height of his popularity), plus it looked like it was going to do something new and different with Superman.

 

The Batman is the second reboot of Batman in 6 years after the first reboot crashed and burned. It's attempting to go backwards ten years rather than do something new. The villains have been seen before in Batman movies and we've seen similar villain setups in Batman movies. We've seen the inexperienced Batman. We've seen Gordon grow into the commissioner role. The fourth actress to be a live action movie Catwoman in the past 30 years. The sixth actor to be a live action movie Batman in the past 30 years.

 

It's a 3 hour long dark noir film being released at a time when people are hesitant to spend too long in an enclosed space and at a time when a long dark film is unlikely to be the first thing most people want.

 

WB are also holding back both reviews and reactions to a few days before release, a bizarre thing to do if they're confident in the film and even more baffling to do it for a property with a damaged reputation.

 

WB should honestly celebrate if this makes a $100 m OW, that should be the benchmark for success.

[Juby]

46 minutes ago, Caesar said:

It was a big deal at the time because it was advertised using Nolan's name (at the height of his popularity), plus it looked like it was going to do something new and different with Superman.

 

The Batman also looks like it's going to do something new and different with Batman character (true detective story that many fans were waiting for for years).

 

46 minutes ago, Caesar said:

The Batman is the second reboot of Batman in 6 years after the first reboot crashed and burned.

 

Civil War/Homecoming were only 2-3 years after the TASM2 - the least successful Spider-Man live-action movie! Besides, Batffleck in DCEU never got his own film. The Batman will be the first BATMAN MOVIE since TDKR (almost 10 years). MoS was the first Superman movie since SR (7 years).

 

46 minutes ago, Caesar said:

The fourth actress to be a live action movie Catwoman in the past 30 years. The sixth actor to be a live action movie Batman in the past 30 years.

 

Phoenix was the third actor to play Joker in 11 years. Do you remember how this turned out? If people love these characters, they don't give a damn how many actors in how many movies played it before.

 

46 minutes ago, Caesar said:

It's a 3 hour long dark noir film being released at a time when people are hesitant to spend too long in an enclosed space

 

Like people didn't want to spend 2,5 hours watching Spider-Man: No Way Home, right?🙄

 

46 minutes ago, Caesar said:

WB should honestly celebrate if this makes a $100 m OW, that should be the benchmark for success.

 

Nope, nope and nope. As I wrote before, Batman Begins today would have around $106.5M opening - with much smaller hype (demaged reputation after B&R in '97), less theaters (3858), no 3D, no ScreenX, less IMAXes, and when superhero movies weren't as popular as today. Anything under $110 mln would be a big sad surprise for Battinson's fans.

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Juby

[Caesar]

I mean it's basically TDK but longer and with a trash bag wearing Riddler taking Joker's place from what I've seen. That'll appeal to a lot of Batman fans sure but we've seen Batman in movies like this before.

 

Joker did a $96 million OW so I agree that it's a good comparison.

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home was a fun blockbuster, not really comparable to a dark noir film.

 

Batman v Superman was a Batman film, if I had to watch the Wayne's die again during it (complete with Thomas Wayne throwing a punch for some reason) then it's a Batman film.

 

Like I said, $100 million is the goal, if it hits that then it should be considered a success.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Caesar

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

How are people hesitant to spend long time in theaters when 6/7 of top grossing films of last year were over 130 minutes?

 

I also disagree that audiences are reluctant about dark films when horror has been one of the few consistent moneymakers in pandemic. 
 

I would agree with the film lacking a new, distinguishable selling point but I think the runtime and overall dark thriller aspect separates it enough and has created interested buzz. And moviegoing culture has become a slave to IP so a Batman movie is easier to be given benefit of a doubt 

[Caesar]

6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I also disagree that audiences are reluctant about dark films when horror has been one of the few consistent moneymakers in pandemic. 

They're not making over $100 million on OW though.

 

I think this film could have some really good legs if there is more to it than the marketing suggests, I just don't believe it's going to have only the second really big US OW since Covid.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Caesar

[Juby]

9 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I mean it's basically TDK but longer and with a trash bag wearing Riddler taking Joker's place from what I've seen.

 

I've seen only the first teaser trailer and it looks compleatly different from any Batman film so far.

 

10 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Joker did a $96 million OW so I agree that it's a good comparison.

 

With who do You agree with? Joker did it with lower ATP. without 3D, 2,5 years ago. The Batman will be over $96M on Saturday. It is not good comparison.

 

12 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Batman v Superman was a Batman film, if I had to watch the Wayne's die again during it (complete with Thomas Wayne throwing a punch for some reason) then it's a Batman film.

 

Majority of the film took place outside Gotham City, except Batman and Alfred there are no Batman characters in it, there's also zero Batman villains. But even if we consider BvS as a "Batman film" - it was 6 years ago (like SR 7 years before MoS), it's enough time to forget about it. But even if not x2 BvS isn't as hated film as B&R was before BB release. I remind You that BvS had $166M OW.

 

7 minutes ago, Caesar said:

They're not making over $100 million on OW though.

 

It (2017) says hi.

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Caesar said:

They're not making over $100 million on OW though.

 

I think this film could have some really good legs if there is more to it than the marketing suggests, I just don't believe it's going to have only the second really big US OW since Covid.

This feels like moving the goalposts.
 

Even then, Venom did 90m with 11m previews. Black Widow made 80m with Disney+ and even larger Thursday previews despite longer runtime. Bond would never have hit 100m OW. 
 

The sales here are greatly outpacing Venom, especially in PLF. The fan event IMAX is sold out. I’d be surprised if it didn’t open higher. Some people here were insane with the 200 talk but under 100 would be shocking 

 

Reviews will be good. Reeves consistently puts out high quality and that’s not including the good buzz

War of the Apes- 82 Metacritic. 94% Rotten Tomatoes. 8.20 average. 84% audience. A- Cinemascore.

Dawn of the Apes- 79 Metacritic. 90% Rotten Tomatoes. 7.90 average. 88% audience. A- Cinemascore.
Let Me In- 79 Metacritic. 88% Rotten Tomatoes. 7.60 average. 76% audience. 

Cloverfield- 64 Metacritic. 78% Rotten Tomatoes. 6.80 average.68% audience. 

 

[Caesar]

17 minutes ago, Juby said:

It (2017) says hi.

I'm pretty sure that released prior to the pandemic.

 

17 minutes ago, Juby said:

With who do You agree with? Joker did it with lower ATP. without 3D, 2,5 years ago. The Batman will be over $96M on Saturday. It is not good comparison.

Another recent dark DC film, seems pretty comparable to me.

 

17 minutes ago, Juby said:

I remind You that BvS had $166M OW.

Yeah and Spider-Man 3 broke the OW record.

 

A bad movie with a bad reaction tends to lead to the next installment taking a hit, especially since the last time anyone saw movie Batman it was in Justice League (an even worse film).

 

11 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Bond would never have hit 100m OW. 

Bond's another good comparison. The last installment was disliked and so even with it being Craig's last Bond film it ended up being the lowest US grossing Bond of the past two decades.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Caesar

[Merkel]

As a huge Batman fan, I must say I never felt Batman V Superman was a true Batman movie and it was therefore hard to conjure up the enthusiasm for it.

 

This one feels much, much more like the real thing

[XXR vs XXR]

Based on the domestic sales data we already have in the tracking thread, I don’t see this going below $120M OW even if its IM is frontloaded. Thinking $135-145M right now.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I'm pretty sure that released prior to the pandemic.

 

Another recent dark DC film, seems pretty comparable to me.

 

Yeah and Spider-Man 3 broke the OW record.

 

A bad movie with a bad reaction tends to lead to the next installment taking a hit, especially since the last time anyone saw movie Batman it was in Justice League (an even worse film).

 

Bond's another good comparison. The last installment was disliked and so even with it being Craig's last Bond film it ended up being the lowest US grossing Bond for the past two decades.

Bond is not a good comp. Batman doesn’t have an audience that’s majority older and theater reluctant. Batman will aim younger with young males where COVID isn’t a factor. And we have more boosters months later. It was astonishing hit overseas in UK with 130million which was more than Spectre, so why did you exclude that? In fact, it’s overseas numbers weren’t totally far off with Spectre (NTTD outgrossed in Germany, for example). NTTD did 613m internationally and Spectre did 680. 

 

[Caesar]

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It was astonishing hit overseas in UK with 130million which was more than Spectre, so why did you exclude that?

Because we're talking about the US OW and final gross.

 

International markets behave differently and it's not unheard of for a movie to improve its box office even if the previous installment was disliked, plus the UK loves Craig's Bond. It is very rare for the same to happen in the US without a really long break between installments to build nostalgia and history would suggest The Batman gets a significantly lower OW than Batman v Superman.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Caesar

[BruiseCruise]

None of think it will open to BvS levels but it will have much better legs 

[Tarintino]

This will open over 150m. The hype is there, the trailer is great and Batman is the most popular superhero of all time. 200m is more likely than some of the under 100m predictions I've seen.

 

I bet when this movie opens around the 200m mark, people will say it was a massive surprise rather than admitting they just lowballed it

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Because we're talking about the US OW and final gross.

 

International markets behave differently and it's not unheard of for a movie to improve its box office even if the previous installment was disliked, plus the UK just loves Bond. It is very rare for the same to happen in the US and history would suggest The Batman gets a significantly lower OW than Batman v Superman.

Again, you keep moving goal posts. You can say the US just loves Batman

[Caesar]

8 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Again, you keep moving goal posts. You can say the US just loves Batman

Well no, I think their recent box office grosses in their own countries show than the UK loves Bond significantly more than the US loves Batman.

 

Otherwise the US wouldn't have abandoned Batman when Justice League came out.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Caesar

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Well no, I think their recent box office grosses in their own countries show than the UK loves Bond significantly more than the US loves Batman.

 

Otherwise the US wouldn't have abandoned Batman when Justice League came out.

Justice League is one of the worst movies ever made and still did 90+