CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!

[Legion Again]

By the way I think that’s 33 submissions+one header row rather than 34 submission 😛 

[Cap]

21 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Who predicted 15M?! That has to be a joke guess right?

We referred to it as the one dollar price is right prediction.

[Cap]

4 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

By the way I think that’s 33 submissions+one header row rather than 34 submission 😛 

Oh. Someone didn’t predict previews. They only gave me a total for opening weekend. So that’s where the 34 comes from 

[XXR vs XXR]

31 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I'm happy my lowball of 31M has been truly obliterated.

Same ($30.5M). I should have stuck with my first estimate of $37.5M but I lost my nerve in the last week. At this point that, even that is 95% likely to be under. 

[Legion Again]

On 11/12/2021 at 6:26 PM, Eternal Legion said:

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Legion	36M	60M	64.8M	55.08M	215.88M

 

Nothing is binding for two weeks, but I guess an updated look at where my head is at (I know previews are locked for contest purposes, but I’m going to keep updating that field to give a cleaner picture for the full weekend):

 

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Legion	48M	75M	81M	69.69M	273.69M

 

I truly didn’t realize what these were going to sum to until I did the sum at the very end. But it is what it is I guess 🤷‍♂️

[Legion Again]

The tele predict is immortalized via Porthos quote on page 1 and the OD will beat its OW.

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Nothing is binding for two weeks, but I guess an updated look at where my head is at (I know previews are locked for contest purposes, but I’m going to keep updating that field to give a cleaner picture for the full weekend):

 

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Legion	48M	75M	81M	69.69M	273.69M

 

I truly didn’t realize what these were going to sum to until I did the sum at the very end. But it is what it is I guess 🤷‍♂️

I’m still being cautious (relatively) for the moment. Looking at my number before previews locked ($189.5M) I would probably bump that up about $40M right now. 
 

But….

 

In 2 weeks I might decide to bump it $100M. Let’s see how things are looking. I figure it would basically need to be on par with Endgame presales for this to happen, as EG PS would be much more weekend loaded than NWH should be (holidays).

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I’m still being cautious (relatively) for the moment. Looking at my number before previews locked ($189.5M) I would probably bump that up about $40M right now. 

If you’re at 230, and you still don’t see IM below 6, that is sub IW previews?

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

If you’re at 230, and you still don’t see IM below 6, that is sub IW previews?

I changed my lowest IM to 5.75 but yes a sub IW preview number is still possible. I believe Porthos comps T-17 for both TROS and EG have it right at $39-40M. We will see. I will rectify all the numbers by the 13th lol 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

I changed my lowest IM to 5.75 but yes a sub IW preview number is still possible. I believe Porthos comps T-17 for both TROS and EG have it right at $39-40M. We will see. I will rectify all the numbers by the 13th lol 

T-17 for TROS is comping vs like 5 weeks of cumulative sales, it’ll pop way over in tonight’s report 😛    
 

Also I just noticed those nums I had above would make it the 2nd movie (after endgame) to hit 200 off 2 days. Would probably also claim 2nd fastest to:

250

300

350  

 

After which it might start falling behind TFA

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

T-17 for TROS is comping vs like 5 weeks of cumulative sales, it’ll pop way over in tonight’s report 😛

Good point. I am curious to see what the comp increase looks like after tonight. Either way, by the time the deadline hits for FSS lock we should have a good handle on things (+/- 10%).

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Eternal Legion said:

Nothing is binding for two weeks, but I guess an updated look at where my head is at (I know previews are locked for contest purposes, but I’m going to keep updating that field to give a cleaner picture for the full weekend):

 

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Legion	48M	75M	81M	69.69M	273.69M

 

I truly didn’t realize what these were going to sum to until I did the sum at the very end. But it is what it is I guess 🤷‍♂️

 

Omicron is going to scare plenty away. Let's all squeeze next to each other isn't exactly appealing. I will see it but zero chance opening weekend. Updated mine as well but down not up.

[Knights of Ren]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

Omicron is going to scare plenty away. Let's all squeeze next to each other isn't exactly appealing. I will see it but zero chance opening weekend. Updated mine as well but down not up.

Omicron is going to have very little impact to US BO.  

[cdsacken]

I disagree. Granted I still see 160+ OW 500+ domestically. Obviously not predicting a bomb but despite intense sales I think mad capacity will be in way lower than even Infinity wars. I just don't see the same appetite. That said legs will spank endgame if it's a good movie! 

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

Omicron is going to scare plenty away. Let's all squeeze next to each other isn't exactly appealing. I will see it but zero chance opening weekend. Updated mine as well but down not up.

heavily disagree, but wont change your mind even though the existing date doesnt support your claim...

[cdsacken]

Market is going to be down at least 500 points and down 900 on Friday. Modera CEO wasn't as optimistic as others.

 

Am I scared of Omicron? Nope. Do I think it will effect maximum capacity for this film? Yes.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, Cap said:

The Previews Are Locked In.  We had 34 users submit Preview Predictions.  Names omitted to protect the guilty:

 

So like 3 of these are already beaten. 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Market is going to be down at least 500 points and down 900 on Friday. Modera CEO wasn't as optimistic as others.

 

Am I scared of Omicron? Nope. Do I think it will effect maximum capacity for this film? Yes.

suit yourslefl we are looking at at least 30 mill in previews and a multi of around 6 so for now at least, worst case scenario is 170-180 mill ow, and again thats worst case.As for the market , its normal to see a big drop thats how the markets react it doesnt mean that anything though, if you remember before omicron we also had delta plus, and we also had the beta variant, variants that in the end didnt cause trouble.Now we dont know how omicron will turn out but for sure as hell the main covid worry is still delta, it will take weeks to know what omicron can do....

 

 

[Legion Again]

30M previews is essentially impossibly low even for worst case

[john2000]

Just now, Eternal Legion said:

30M previews is essentially impossibly low even for worst case

👀 i was just trying to help him....