CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!

[Lion Roar]

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Lion Roar	28.8M	50M	56M	46M	180.8M

[vtec]

Preview: 40

Fri: 70

Sat: 85

Sun: 75

Total: 270m

[Grebacio]

On 11/12/2021 at 5:11 PM, Cap said:

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Grebacio	37M	62M	69M	66M	234M

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by Grebacio

[Ronin46]

On 11/13/2021 at 7:11 AM, Cap said:

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Ronin46	25M	46M	49M	41M	161M

 

[Cap]

Trailer confirmed tickets go on sale Monday, November 29, 2021.  So the deadline for locking in your Previews Predictions has been extended to Sunday, November 28, 2021 @ 11:59PM EST.  

 

All other final predictions for FSS/Overall are still due December 13!

[Krissykins]

 

 

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Krissykins	$36m	$60m	$63m	$48m	$207m

 

[Eric the Ape]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/

 

I have no horse in this race, but early tracking range is 135-185M. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, Eric Venkman said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/

 

I have no horse in this race, but early tracking range is 135-185M. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

A huge range lol ....its legs are also likely ti be 3x

[XXR vs XXR]

It looks like NWH previews may be starting at 3PM!!

I hope we get confirmation of this before the previews deadline, because that's 3 hours earlier than I expected. 

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It looks like NWH previews may be starting at 3PM!!

I hope we get confirmation of this before the previews deadline, because that's 3 hours earlier than I expected. 

 

You really expected it after 4pm?  For a 2hr 45m movie?  4pm was the latest I thought it would be.

 

(already joked it would be 2pm in the Tracking thread a couple of days ago, so I ain't surprised at all at 3pm)

[XXR vs XXR]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You really expected it after 4pm?  For a 2hr 45m movie?  4pm was the latest I thought it would be.

 

(already joked it would be 2pm in the Tracking thread a couple of days ago, so I ain't surprised at all at 3pm)

 

Yes I figured 6pm like Endgame. Now I'm thinking I need to bump my preview numbers by 15-20% or so. 

 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Yes I figured 6pm like Endgame. Now I'm thinking I need to bump my preview numbers by 15-20% or so. 

 

 

With staffing shortages being what they are, many theaters aren't gonna want to do a lot of post 11pm showtimes, never mind post 1am.  By shifting it to 3pm they'll be able to squeeze in more showtimes without worrying about post-midnight madness.

 

Honestly, 6pm didn't even cross my mind as a possibility.  Not after Let There be Carnage, Dune, No Time to Die, and Ghostbusters: Afterlife all went at 4pm.  Two of those aren't Sony releases, but V2 and G:A were.

 

Don't get me wrong, some will do post-midnight madness.  But this would take the pressure off of theaters that don't want to play that game.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Previews start at 3pm, confirmed:

 

[Kalo]

Previews $28m

Friday $43m

Saturday $56m

Sunday $48m

 

$175m OW. (Box office has not recovered enough for $200m+ opening imo.)

 

[TwoMisfits]

So I updated my guesses based on my Cinemark and Regal presets...here's hoping I end up being wrong to the right side...

[LPLC]

38 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So I updated my guesses based on my Cinemark and Regal presets...here's hoping I end up being wrong to the right side...

Add $20M and we'll agree.

[Mango]

3pm previews is absurd. Just start "opening" movies on Thursday at this point, Christ.

 

Anyway:

Preview/Thurs: $33M

Fri/True-Fri: $83/50M

Sat: $60M

Sun: $51M

Weekend: $194M

 

Some people (mainly here) will probably meltdown over that insane opening but Christmas will spread out business. People always point to TFA as an example of it not applying to "certain franchises" when it's damn near assured that TFA would have opened $30-50M more had it been released in May instead. The opening will be insane but not record breaking, but it's weekdays through the holidays and Christmas/New Years boosts will carry it far... then it will sink like a rock in January...

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Mango

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Mango said:

3pm previews is absurd. Just start "opening" movies on Thursday at this point, Christ.

 

Anyway:

Preview/Thurs: $33M

Fri/True-Fri: $83/50M

Sat: $60M

Sun: $51M

Weekend: $194M

 

Some people (mainly here) will probably meltdown over that insane opening but Christmas will spread out business. People always point to TFA as an example of it not applying to "certain franchises" when it's damn near assured that TFA would have opened $30-50M more had it been released in May instead. The opening will be insane but not record breaking, but it's weekdays through the holidays and Christmas/New Years boosts will carry it far... then it will sink like a rock in January...

 

 

If anyone actually melts down over a 194m OW and they aren't just meme-ing or putting on a show...

 

...

 

Well, I think those folks should probably re-think doing that ahead of time iz all I am sayin'.  Maybe give that re-think three or four times, actually. 👍

 

Mild disappointment at coming close to 200m but not reaching it?  Fine, whatever.  But actual meltdown over a 194m OW?  No... Just, no.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

The actual meltdown bar is 151,116,516 in case anyone was curious.

[XXR vs XXR]

 

Reminder that today is the last day to get in your previews prediction!