CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!

[john2000]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

BW had crazy strong PS start. After all she has been in all Avengers movies and this is most likely the last time she is playing the character. Look at how big Far from Home opened and why is it crazy to expect NWH to not have that much higher previews than BW. 

 

That said I am not predicting any previews until I have few days PS data. So I am not playing this game. TO hit 30 milion previews it needs to do 10m at MTC1 and 5 million at MTC2. That wont be easy. We will know in few weeks time if PS is starting only end of this month. With a short PS window, it has to start strong and keep pace most of the run. 

I think that the presale will start when the sec trailer drops online which is basically one month before the premiere, when did the black widow presales started ?

[XXR vs XXR]

At the end of the day this is just a movie like Cap said, and whatever happens will happen. I think it's going to be the for the domestic BO what NTTD was for the UK but if it isn't, the show will go on. 

I'm sorry @Plain Old Tele @baumer @keysersoze123 for getting too heated and I apologize for any harshness 😪

[Plain Old Tele]

Honestly, it’s stupid of me to be annoyed by this and it’s stupid for me to be here. 

[john2000]

I mean its not like we wont all celebrate if this can hit a number that high..

 

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

Let's make one thing perfectly clear. I love movies, I love a healthy box office I love to see movies do well. Me predicting that it will do less than 120 million has nothing to do with hating on Spider-Man. I think I've actually liked 80% of the films that have come out in the series. I even like Spider-Man 3. Hell I was one of the only ones who like The amazing Spider-Man part 2. I would love to see this movie do well however I just don't think we are back to those kind of levels that can support the kind of numbers you guys are talking about. It has nothing to do with hate I'm just basing it on what I see.

 

What I think, is that they made a movie that will get asses in seats, especially on OW.  Will it be any good, that's another question entirely lol.

 

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BW had crazy strong PS start. After all she has been in all Avengers movies and this is most likely the last time she is playing the character. Look at how big Far from Home opened and why is it crazy to expect NWH to not have that much higher previews than BW. 

 

That said I am not predicting any previews until I have few days PS data. So I am not playing this game. TO hit 30 milion previews it needs to do 10m at MTC1 and 5 million at MTC2. That wont be easy. We will know in few weeks time if PS is starting only end of this month. With a short PS window, it has to start strong and keep pace most of the run. 

 

Forgive me since I haven't been very active lately, but were you guys doing this presale tracking for the Christmas break in 2019?  I don't recall it, but I apologize if ya'll were. 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

What I think, is that they made a movie that will get asses in seats, especially on OW.  Will it be any good, that's another question entirely lol.

 

 

Forgive me since I haven't been very active lately, but were you guys doing this presale tracking for the Christmas break in 2019?  I don't recall it, but I apologize if ya'll were. 
 

I did track SW9. Insane OD PS but its hype was not great in release week. It had meh finish and still did 40m previews. Let us see how Spider-man tracks against it. of course SW9 PS started almost 2 months before release if I am not wrong. This will have a short window and so you should not see much of a slowdown. 

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did track SW9. Insane OD PS but its hype was not great in release week. It had meh finish and still did 40m previews. Let us see how Spider-man tracks against it. of course SW9 PS started almost 2 months before release if I am not wrong. This will have a short window and so you should not see much of a slowdown. 

2 months wow thats crazy, the usual is 1 month or so right ?

[Deep Wang]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did track SW9. Insane OD PS but its hype was not great in release week. It had meh finish and still did 40m previews. Let us see how Spider-man tracks against it. of course SW9 PS started almost 2 months before release if I am not wrong. This will have a short window and so you should not see much of a slowdown. 

 

Okay, I just don't want to step on ya'll's toes or anything because the Christmas holiday presales are another kinda beast from the rest of the year!  I didn't know if those numbers you gave me were adjusted for the time or what.

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

@CJohn

 

Not during a pandemic where the world will be in a partial lockdown.

 

130M OW. 16M previews.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Not during a pandemic where the world will be in a partial lockdown.

 

 

What does the world have to do with a domestic opening, where there won't be any lockdown? 

 

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Not during a pandemic where the world will be in a partial lockdown.

 

130M OW. 16M previews.

 So a 8+ multiplier. Excellent. Previews dont stop at 6pm though so the 16 is a fair way off.  

[john2000]

.

Edited November 13, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

56 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

On what data do you base this statement? 

 

On 11/12/2021 at 4:45 AM, Eternal Legion said:

Wow, it does seem that the reporting at the time is that AoU and Pixels were the two most viewed trailers globally in 24 hours with… 35M.    
 

I used the Wikipedia list of historical records to fit the data from 2012 (IM3) to 2018 (AEG):

 

NWH should have done 1.4B to match growth trend. Flop trailer. 40M only

The Australia post was partly in jest or course -- the exponential growth during the 2010s wasn't really sustainable.   

 

But NWH would probably be a bit under even a linear fit -- a lot of time had passed since the endgame trailer.   

 

Now, a slightly under trend new nominal #1 is still a new nominal #1. There is crazy buzz. But the 24 hours views don't support a greater than endgame buzz by any stretch imo, and neither do the Twitter metrics (movie engagement on Twitter has also had 2.5 yes to grow, from a lower base).

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

 

The Australia post was partly in jest or course -- the exponential growth during the 2010s wasn't really sustainable.   

 

But NWH would probably be a bit under even a linear fit -- a lot of time had passed since the endgame trailer.   

 

Now, a slightly under trend new nominal #1 is still a new nominal #1. There is crazy buzz. But the 24 hours views don't support a greater than endgame buzz by any stretch imo, and neither do the Twitter metrics (movie engagement on Twitter has also had 2.5 yes to grow, from a lower base).

none of us are expecting a 357 mill ow ,calm down thats a goal for...

Spoiler

avengers 5

 

 

[Porthos]

*walks back in after leaving the board for about three hours*

*sees this thread lit up like a Xmas tree*

*quickly scans it*

 

 

Really now, folks.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Porthos

[LPLC]

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
LPLC	28M	52M	58M	49M	187M

[baumer]

50 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

What I think, is that they made a movie that will get asses in seats, especially on OW.  Will it be any good, that's another question entirely lol.

 

 

Forgive me since I haven't been very active lately, but were you guys doing this presale tracking for the Christmas break in 2019?  I don't recall it, but I apologize if ya'll were. 
 

 

I hope you're right.  I'm in the same boat as you....I am so far from in tune with the box office climate right now.  It's going to take me a while to get my box office acumen sharp again....however I do feel like I have this one pegged correctly.  But we'll see.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I hope you're right.  I'm in the same boat as you....I am so far from in tune with the box office climate right now.  It's going to take me a while to get my box office acumen sharp again....however I do feel like I have this one pegged correctly.  But we'll see.

Indeed still only a 30 mill increase from venom 2 will be very dissapointing to me, (aside my 200+ mill ow predict) it will be fun nonetheless.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Okay, I just don't want to step on ya'll's toes or anything because the Christmas holiday presales are another kinda beast from the rest of the year!  I didn't know if those numbers you gave me were adjusted for the time or what.

Part of that though is just the PS is spread out more. Not sure if the PS when comparing previews to previews will be inflated. 

[YM!]

Previews: $22.7m 
True Friday: $47.5m 

Saturday: $42.75m

Sunday: $37.6m

 

OW: $150.55m 

 

I may do some brazy adjustments after the trailer if it’s a confirmation of A and B. However, I just want to say this as I’ll sort of repeat from the NWH chat. There’s still a pandemic going on. Families who help MCU movies in the past even with fully vaccinated children may be more hesitant as well as I do think MCU movies are getting more frontloaded than the other way around. 

 

I also want to say this, as someone who can see 200m+ OW, this movie has about the same chance for an OW just about 100m. The main thing is if theaters can match the demand as this is a 2.5 hour movie, and if you’re operating at 3:00 pm, it is much harder for a yuge opening. Make no mistake it’s going to reap screens OW but in a normal times it probably would’ve anyways. I do think that theaters will do their absolute best to get enough supply as this is the first major event since TROS and this holiday season does seem like something to celebrate for them. However, the labor industry this year has been understaffed for a while so it could be possible.
 

I do think A and B are far larger draws than the follow up to Endgame and while I easily can see $200m, I also acknowledge that there’s a very real possibility in that supply might not be able to match up with demand. Yes an $100m OW would be kind of disappointing given the scale but it is also understandable. 
 

Also with holiday presales, that’s gonna be messy and I thank the tracking team of @keysersoze123 @Menor and the rest for shifting through it.

Edited November 14, 2021 by YourMother