Weekdays Thread 11/15-18 | Thu - Ghostbusters Afterlife $4.5m P - Who you gonna call? / C $0.65m -9% / D $0.46m -5% / N $0.38m -2% / V $0.25m -8%

[charlie Jatinder]

What Eternals can gain over Ragnarok & Dr Strange is that those two films had much bigger films in pre-Thanksgiving weekend aka Justice League & FB&WTFT. If Eternals can make gains here, it can still take on F9 final, otherwise Top 5 Marvel is dead.

Edited November 18, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, john2000 said:

@charlie Jatinder knows better, but the movie will probably break even in the end, one way or another.

FYI ..  https://www.slashfilm.com/615989/hollywoods-budget-problem-and-the-inevitable-reckoning-that-must-come/

 

Disney plus is currently not making money(they lost 630m this quarter). So its all about what Disney would have been paid had they sold the movie to another streaming platform. 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

PS. I don't know much about Hollywood specific, just general how films economics works. @Barnack is absolutely the guy for this, whom I often cc on this stuff.

It has been too long from the last leaking of relevant info for me to have any special edge by now, specially since the post April 2020 world.

 

  

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

other person is @Barnack. Based on data leaks from Sony, studios have costs beyond just production costs. Plus not every market return 50%. it varies by market. Asia is well lower while europe is closer to US which has higher return during OW. 

 

At the time, for Sony at least, Japan-Korea were 2 of the most Domestic like market, high release cost, high theatrical rental rate (47%).

 

Higher return during OW in the US stopped to be common in the early 2000s has OW became larger and larger, back in the days the system did tend to end up in a near 50-50 anyway, it was an incentive for theater to play by then unpopular movies longer and they lacked the negotiation power to pass on OW, but has the industry become more and more frontloaded it was not sustainable.

 

I did look between 2010-2013 release and did not find any difference in studio share of the box office with the movies legs and I am not sure the Christmas season would have become such a popular time for blockbuster with the giant OW share much lower on legs one.

 

[TiagoRodrigues]

I don't understand the doom and gloom around Eternals numbers when compared to other releases to be honest.

 

After 2 weekends:

$282.4 - The Eternals

$264 - Black Widow

$257.6 - Shang Chi

 

The movie surpassed 300M yesterday. It will probably surpass $350M this next weekend, and $400M after the thanksgiving weekend.

 

About the marketing for the movie:

 

‘Eternals’ Strikes Lightning With $100M Promo Partner Campaign; Best For MCU During Pandemic

Quote

In the case of Eternals, Disney has secured $100M in global marketing support from bespoke brands, higher than that of Black Widow and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and also pre-pandemic MCU titles like 2017’s Guardians of the Galaxy 2‘s which brought in $80M worth of advertiser support. 

 

In the end the movie will do around Shang Chi numbers and comfortably surpass both Black Widow and Dune next week.

 

If this is disappointing for a post-pandemic world, then Dune, Black Widow and even Shang Chi are huge flops as well.

Edited November 18, 2021 by TiagoRodrigues

[keysersoze123]

^^^^

 

Added marketingsupport from brands does not mean studios get the cash. Its just additional marketing support through their brands(like lexus ad for ETernals). Studios also has to pay for print, tv,online marketing. 

 

That said there is no doom and gloom. John mentioned budget x and BO 2x and so it broke even. Its not that simple as the budget that we get through trade is only for production and there are so many other costs involved with release and even post release. That is how studios at times puts even a big blockbuster at red at times.

 

Anyway BO for Eternals is ok. Not bad but not great either. But its par for the movie.  

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

I don't understand the doom and gloom around Eternals numbers when compared to other releases to be honest.

 

After 2 weekends:

$282.4 - The Eternals

$264 - Black Widow

$257.6 - Shang Chi

 

The movie surpassed 300M yesterday. It will probably surpass $350M this next weekend, and $400M after the thanksgiving weekend.

 

About the marketing for the movie:

 

‘Eternals’ Strikes Lightning With $100M Promo Partner Campaign; Best For MCU During Pandemic

 

In the end the movie will do around Shang Chi numbers and comfortably surpass both Black Widow and Dune next week.

 

If this is disappointing for a post-pandemic world, then Dune, Black Widow and even Shang Chi are huge flops as well.

 

What is the difference between Eternals and Dune and BW? I will give you 1 guess.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Ronin46

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

I don't understand the doom and gloom around Eternals numbers when compared to other releases to be honest.

 

After 2 weekends:

$282.4 - The Eternals

$264 - Black Widow

$257.6 - Shang Chi

 

The movie surpassed 300M yesterday. It will probably surpass $350M this next weekend, and $400M after the thanksgiving weekend.

 

About the marketing for the movie:

 

‘Eternals’ Strikes Lightning With $100M Promo Partner Campaign; Best For MCU During Pandemic

 

In the end the movie will do around Shang Chi numbers and comfortably surpass both Black Widow and Dune next week.

 

If this is disappointing for a post-pandemic world, then Dune, Black Widow and even Shang Chi are huge flops as well.

 

Just for the marketing part of that. The $100m media/promo value isn't insignificant but it's a valuation based on impressions and hopefully with some better metrics too that tend to be overblown. I.e. if Disney would use $100m in their marketing the impact would probably be 5-10x compared to that $100m partner promo value. These partner campaigns might help Disney to keep their marketing campaigns a little lower than otherwise but generally those are more about leveraging and Disney still needs to have a sizable own marketing budget to run it's own marketing machine. How much that is, don't know. $80-90m?

 

With the current WW trajectory, Eternals will be profitable.

[Ronin46]

Correct me if I am wrong but most of the blockbuster films this year have had staggered openings overseas. Eternals I believe opened pretty much everywhere. So comparing it to other films is not really going to be a good idea after a few weeks. Dune has not even opened here (Australia) for example. NTTD opened last week only.

[TiagoRodrigues]

12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Correct me if I am wrong but most of the blockbuster films this year have had staggered openings overseas. Eternals I believe opened pretty much everywhere. So comparing it to other films is not really going to be a good idea after a few weeks. Dune has not even opened here (Australia) for example. NTTD opened last week only.

Eternals opened exactly like Shang Chi. Basically everywhere on week one. And WW Shang Chi didn't do as good.

My point is, movies like Dune already have their sequels confirmed and can't even hit 100M in america after almost a month. 

It's clear we can't look at the box office now like we used to before.

 

I only posted because it feels like Eternals is being crucified unfaily for its numbers, when it's doing better or similar to plenty of others and i couldn't understand why. Not saying it's happening here on this forum by the way, just in general.

Edited November 18, 2021 by TiagoRodrigues

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, von Kenni said:

These partner campaigns might help Disney to keep their marketing campaigns a little lower than otherwise but generally those are more about leveraging and Disney still needs to have a sizable own marketing budget to run it's own marketing machine. How much that is, don't know. $80-90m?

If we use James Bond has an example (outside star wars /fast and Furious, etc... it is up there has the biggest partner promotion machine).

 

On those the actual money involved when there was used to diminish the movie production budget, when the $350M to make movie ended up a $250M in the press, it was after incentive/a little bit of product placement money and so on. On Bond 25 they still planned a $156.82m WW P&A, 112.7 million of those in Marketing.

 

2 hours ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

I don't understand the doom and gloom around Eternals numbers when compared to other releases to be honest.

 

After 2 weekends:

$282.4 - The Eternals

$264 - Black Widow

$257.6 - Shang Chi

Maybe a speak for myself but at a certain time (first teaser maybe), The Eternals did feel like a A (a bit below but in the style of Black Panther) non-sequel in the Marvel new non-establish Avengers entries, BW a B (like a first Captain America-Guardian of the Galaxy) and Shang Chi the C type (like say the first Ant Man).

 

In term of ambition, budget, scope, assemble cast, it felt like the potential to be a tier above BW (and that had the potential to be a tier above Shang Chi), let alone all the day-and-date versus full on theatrical exclusive. The movie should have beaten the other MCU release handedly imo and would probably have with better trailers/review.

 

Now it can be than day-and-date was vastly overrated has an impact, but Widow was a 131.6 millions dbo after it's second weekend to 118m for Eternals before even taking it into account.

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Barnack

[Ronin46]

Just now, TiagoRodrigues said:

Eternals opened exactly like Shang Chi. Basically everywhere on week one. And WW still didn't do as good.

My point is, movies like Dune already have their sequels confirmed and can't even hit 100M in america after almost a month. 

It's clear we can't look at the box office now like we used to before.

 

I only posted because it feels like Eternals is being crucified unfaily for its numbers, when it's doing better or similar to plenty of others and i couldn't understand why. Not saying it's happening here on this forum by the way, just in general.

 

HBO Max stopped it from doing 150M in USA (maybe more). For Eternals to struggle to even beat Dune WW is beyond embarrassing.

[Ronin46]

7 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

Eternals opened exactly like Shang Chi. Basically everywhere on week one. And WW Shang Chi didn't do as good.

My point is, movies like Dune already have their sequels confirmed and can't even hit 100M in america after almost a month. 

It's clear we can't look at the box office now like we used to before.

 

I only posted because it feels like Eternals is being crucified unfaily for its numbers, when it's doing better or similar to plenty of others and i couldn't understand why. Not saying it's happening here on this forum by the way, just in general.

 

Shang Chi was well recieved and had good legs and opened in the teeth of the new Covid wave. It had no real stars and was not hyped for Marvel and it performed well and will be remembered fondly in the future. Eternals was hyped and had a lot more star power and was expected to do well and has not. Disney have already indicated that a sequel is not compulsory (a producer said it I believe). 

 

Personally I did not really engage with Shang Chi but that's just me. Audiences liked it. Eternals is going to finish around 165M in the USA which is really not good.

[Fox20]

Thinking Dune would have done 50M+ more in the US when the streaming numbers were average at best it's funny.

[von Kenni]

26 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

What is the difference between Eternals and Dune and BW? I will give you 1 guess.

 

9 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

Eternals opened exactly like Shang Chi. Basically everywhere on week one. And WW Shang Chi didn't do as good.

My point is, movies like Dune already have their sequels confirmed and can't even hit 100M in america after almost a month. 

It's clear we can't look at the box office now like we used to before.

 

I only posted because it feels like Eternals is being crucified unfaily for its numbers, when it's doing better or similar to plenty of others and i couldn't understand why. Not saying it's happening here on this forum by the way, just in general.

 

Talking about Dune. It's going to pass $400m when the run is over and a good chance that it'll get over that more than just couple of millions.

 

Then lets talk about Dom and HBO Max (that 1 guess...). Just as a rough example how Dune's Dom legs compare to UK where it was released theatrically (and I guess later affected with HBO Max a bit too) and other hard scifis (spot the anomaly...):

 

	UK	US
Dune	3.84	2.70	-1.14
Martian	4.66	4.21	-0.45
Interstellar	4.04	3.96	-0.08
Gravity	4.55	4.91	0.37
BR2049	3.15	2.81	-0.34
		Avg.	-0.13

 

Dune is going to land close to $110m Dom now. Without HBO Max it's fair to say that Dune's OW would have been around $50m instead of $41m and instead of that 2.7 legs it would have had around 3.84-0.13=3.71 x $50m ~ $185m DOM. To recap:

 

Dune Dom BO

/w HBO Max ~ $110m

Theatrically ~ $185m

 

Just with that difference Dune's final WW would have been $475m... but when considering that 1/3 of HBO Max subscribers are OS and the effect of the early 4K leak and piracy, it's fair to say that without HBO Max Dune would have made way past $500m WW.

 

BW had similar issues plus much more restricted markets due to pandemic.

 

So Eternals is doing OK, but when studios compare successes they evaluate these things in the mix and as we see here, they really matter.

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

Thinking Dune would have done 50M+ more in the US when the streaming numbers were average at best it's funny.

 

50M + gives it 155 to 160 gross. Do you mean 40 to 45? Use the calculator function on your phone if you need to.  Or do you think its going to stop at 100M? 

 

[von Kenni]

Here's some more estimates and scenarios on HBO Max effect. SambaTV had 1.9m households watching Dune OW. It doesn't measure all so real number is a bit higher and it doesn't measure if more than one person watches it like often do. So let's use a conservative 1.3 multiplier. The ATP was $14.4 or more (I remember seeing that number with Dune at one point). Potential BO loss was 1.9x1.3x14.4 ~$36m. Of course most of them wouldn't have gone to watch Dune OW in any case. So here are different scenarios for that with the previous 3.71x legs multiplier (without HBO Max):

 

11% (~every 9th person) OW $45m -> $167m

17% (~every 6th person) OW $47m -> $175m

25% (~every 4th person) OW $50m -> $185m

 

So depending where Dune ends up Dom now $108-112m, you can estimate what was left on the table due to HBO Max.

[von Kenni]

Oh, plus Dune's budget (reportedly...) is $165m. Getting over $500m would have meant 3+ multiplier but now it'll get "just" shy of 2.5. Pretty darn good for a DaD release and "new" IP. If we would factor pandemic effects WW, we would talk about $600-700m run as a pre-pandemic theather exclusive release. I would imagine Legendary and WB being pretty happy and excited for Part 2 and Messiah.

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

For Eternals to struggle to even beat Dune WW is beyond embarrassing.

What struggle? LOL. 

 

 

 

 

[von Kenni]

Wed actuals. It's crazy how one day the dog is missing, the other day it's Eternals or Bond, and now it's Dune. One of these, but just one, is usually veeery late.

 

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
1	(1)	Eternals	Walt Disney	$1,614,457	-26%	-62%	4,090	$395	$123,613,699	13
-	(2)	Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount Pi…	$715,084	-33%	-69%	3,700	$193	$24,763,839	8
-	(4)	No Time to Die	United Artists	$391,647	-13%	-41%	2,867	$137	$151,598,855	41
-	(5)	Venom: Let There be Carnage	Sony Pictures	$270,342	-9%	-28%	2,538	$107	$203,450,975	48
-	(7)	The French Dispatch	Searchlight …	$204,459	-5%	-36%	1,225	$167	$12,128,472	27
-	(6)	Belfast	Focus Features	$173,645	-21%		580	$299	$2,335,210	6
-	(8)	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Century…	$102,651	-21%	-36%	2,430	$42	$21,111,491	27
-	(-)	Last Night in Soho	Focus Features	$100,425	-11%	-51%	1,341	$75	$9,666,655	20
-	(-)	Antlers	Searchlight …	$99,596	-13%	-53%	1,825	$55	$9,879,100	20
-	(-)	Halloween Kills	Universal	$67,915	-9%	-58%	1,994	$34	$91,640,565	34
-	(-)	The Addams Family 2	United Artists	$35,007	-20%	-49%	1,322	$26	$56,120,896	48
-	(-)	Shang-Chi and the Legend …	Walt Disney	$17,397	-14%	-75%	335	$52	$224,438,375	76
-	(-)	The Last Duel	20th Century…	$14,999	-7%	-13%	250	$60	$10,740,019	34
-	(-)	Dear Evan Hansen	Universal	$6,130	+142%	+428%	175	$35	$14,996,541	55
-	(-)	Free Guy	20th Century…	$3,940	+9%	-41%	85	$46	$121,580,290	97
-	(-)	Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney	$1,243	+19%	-60%	60	$21	$116,978,320	111
		16		$3,818,937

[ThomasNicole]

Eternals is fine.

 

It will finish with a overall good box office, decent legs DOM and great legs OS. It doesn't even look like the B Cinemascore hurt it much, the reviews hurt it tho.

 

With the usual reviews for MCU this would opened with 90-100M and easily crossed +500M without China. It won't happen, but still probably +450M finish and it's definitely not rejected by audiences, so Feige can't complain that much. With the early negative buzz after reviews came out this could've turned out way worse.