The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

In general do review embargoes dropping and being really positive cause a really good acceleration in pre-sales especially this late?

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

In general do review embargoes dropping and being really positive cause a really good acceleration in pre-sales especially this late?

 

Not really. I don't expect any kind of unusual acceleration. It's going to pop because it's time for it to happen.

[Joyous Legion]

It’s hard to disentangle because:

The final week is the big ramp regardless of when reviews drop

this movie has been widely expected to be super good for the whole run already

[ZackM]

6 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Is this weighted vs NWH final atp or t-5 atp?

T-5 ATP

[XXR & Friends]

9 hours ago, ZackM said:

Thursday Only:

.245x NWH T-5

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.282x NWH T-5

 

So, "alpha" ticket prices are 15% higher in only 3 months?

[ZackM]

1 minute ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

So, "alpha" ticket prices are 15% higher in only 3 months?

NWH had 3pm shows.

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

NWH had 3pm shows.

 

So does The Batman. 

[ZackM]

Just now, PenguinXXR said:

 

So does The Batman. 

Interesting.  I hadn’t even realized that.  I’ll look into it and see why ATPis so much higher.

[Joyous Legion]

With overall sales much lower the plf % should be higher. Also likely to be doing less ps business in lower atp areas of the country.  

Edited February 27, 2022 by Derby Legion

[XXR & Friends]

So it looks like alpha may hit half of NWH, ATP adjusted. Other chains are looking weaker, maybe 35-45%.

 

Alpha is still about 30-33% of the overall market, but probably a higher % on previews (40%?). 

 

Based on this, I'm thinking $21-22M previews.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New*	% Sold
T-19	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	18	2,151	98	98	4.56%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,313	122	122	9.29%
		Raleigh	5	7	792	100	100	12.63%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		17	36	4,256	320	320	7.52%
T-3	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	465	7	55.29%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	403	1	98.29%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	1,014	8	72.33%
T-4	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	646	55	55.40%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	255	10	80.19%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	901	65	60.71%
T-5	Batman	Jacksonville	7	126	20,501	1,185	167	5.78%
		Phoenix	7	115	18,183	1,897	289	10.43%
		Raleigh	28	101	11,404	1,481	145	12.99%
	Batman Total		42	342	50,088	4,563	601	9.11%

 

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Batman T-5 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .205x (10.24m)

Black Widow - 1.429x (18.86m)

Eternals - 1.984x (18.85m)

 

Here's where MHA was at T-5 (my first run):

892/7768 in 56 shows

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-18	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	18	2,151	121	23	5.63%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,313	149	27	11.35%
		Raleigh	5	7	792	115	15	14.52%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		17	36	4,256	385	65	9.05%
T-2	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	469	4	55.77%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	404	1	98.54%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	1,019	5	72.68%
T-3	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	668	22	57.29%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	256	1	80.50%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	924	23	62.26%
T-4	Batman	Jacksonville	7	126	20,501	1,243	58	6.06%
		Phoenix	7	115	18,183	2,020	123	11.11%
		Raleigh	28	101	11,404	1,556	75	13.64%
	Batman Total		42	342	50,088	4,819	256	9.62%

 

Batman T-4 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .211x (10.53m)

Black Widow - 1.429x (18.77m)

Eternals - 1.984x (18.53m)

 

Fell back against BW and Eternals, increasing only 5.61% where they increased by 6.14% and 7.39% respectively.

 

T-4 ATP comparison

Batman - 13.99

Spider-Man - 13.20

Black Widow - 13.27

Eternals - 14.32

 

From what I can tell, Spider-Man's low show count early on drove up the sales in the matinee and standard shows.  With the full slate of Batman shows up on the first day, those same shows won't be targeted until closer to release when the other shows have started filling up.

[Juby]

4 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Who cares? You are aware that this movie isn't coming out in 2020/2021, right? It's coming out now. 

 

And? 2022 will be still no more than 70% of 2019 gross. Things change.

 

Aquaman 2 even without covid wouldn't be a sure 1bn-grosser. The first one did great because of lack of competition and he perfectly filled the gap between the two Star Wars movies (Dec 2017 and Dec 2019). AQ2 will be 9th superhero film this year, 4th from DC, and will be released against "Avatar 2"! And the first AQ isn't very beloved movie. $800m for AQ2 will be amazing for WB.

 

 

[Notthereverseflash24]

8 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

And? 2022 will be still no more than 70% of 2019 gross. Things change.

 

Aquaman 2 even without covid wouldn't be a sure 1bn-grosser. The first one did great because of lack of competition and he perfectly filled the gap between the two Star Wars movies (Dec 2017 and Dec 2019). AQ2 will be 9th superhero film this year, 4th from DC, and will be released against "Avatar 2"! And the first AQ isn't very beloved movie. $800m for AQ2 will be amazing for WB.

 

 

This is a wrong statement. Aquaman in 2018 had plenty of competition.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/26/2022 at 12:01 AM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6193	36269	17.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 216

 

Comp

2.160x of Black Widow T-6 (28.51M)

2.837x of Eternals T-6 (26.95M)

0.326x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-6 (16.29M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.391x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-6 (15.63M)

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6514	36269	17.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 321

 

Comp

2.125x of Black Widow T-5 (28.05M)

2.798x of Eternals T-5 (26.58M)

0.331x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-5 (16.57M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.406x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-5 (16.25M)

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6514	36269	17.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 321

 

Comp

2.125x of Black Widow T-5 (28.05M)

2.798x of Eternals T-5 (26.58M)

0.331x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-5 (16.57M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.406x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-5 (16.25M)

Is this just thursday or does it include tue/wed shows as well?

[Eric is Quiet]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is this just thursday or does it include tue/wed shows as well?

It includes Tue/Wed shows

[XXR & Friends]

On 2/23/2022 at 9:38 AM, PenguinXXR said:

 

The Batman - (T-8, 24 Screen Theater)

Tuesday - 1 showtime, 147 tickets sold, IMAX 
Thursday - 28 showtimes, 360 tickets sold,  IMAX/Dolby, 80 regular 

IMAX Fan Event: $24.00

IMAX: $18.29

Dolby: $19.29

Regular: $13.79

 

Comps vs Finals (Tues + Thurs)

Endgame -  587 vs 3623 = $9.72M

No Way Home -  587 vs 3545 = $8.28M

Rise of Skywalker -  587vs 1826 = $12.86M

The 355 -  587 vs 31 = $6.63M

 

**Added in ticket price for a 7PM adult ticket as a reference point for future films. 

 

The Batman - (T-4, 24 Screen Theater)

Tuesday - 1 showtime, 147 tickets sold, IMAX 
Thursday - 28 showtimes, 405 tickets sold IMAX/Dolby, 119 regular 

IMAX Fan Event: $24.00

IMAX: $18.29

Dolby: $19.29

Regular: $13.79

 

Comps vs Finals (Tues + Thurs)

Endgame -  671 vs 3623 = $11.11M

No Way Home -  671 vs 3545 = $9.47M

Rise of Skywalker -  671 vs 1826 = $21.65M

The 355 -  671 vs 31 = $7.58M

 

Also to note, there are 6 available "private rentals" at my theater. So far none have sold.  

[keysersoze123]

The Batman MTC2 // as of yesterday night

Tue - 3585/4151 56851.50 14 shows

Wed - 26970/38787 395555.75 183 shows

Thu(T-5) - 73624/577933 983810.95 3966 shows

Fri - 73136/749085 926467.71 4848 shows

 

Friday should overtake thursday today for sure. Real action should be seen from tomorrow.  

[XXR & Friends]

Tracking Announcement

 

Starting with the Batman, I will do tracking for TEN movie theaters going forward! I will be retiring my single theater comp. I feel like this will be a better way to measure scope across the country and not be limited to one subset of people. Due to the scale of this, I will only do 2 counts per film. One on Sunday T-4 (starting at 3PM CST), and a final count in the evening of T-1 (starting at 7PM CST). For major films (openings I believe will be over $100M), I will try to do 24HR sales figures as well. Below are the 10 theaters I'll be tracking and my goal is to do this for every film that has previews, no matter the size....

 

AMC Willowbrook 24 (Houston, TX)
AMC Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Vancouver Mall 23 (Seattle, WA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)

AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL) 

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

In general do review embargoes dropping and being really positive cause a really good acceleration in pre-sales especially this late?

 

Acceleration?

 

No.

 

Bump and then a possibly higher (or lower if they are bad) baseline?  Well depends on when they are released, but sure absolutely. 

 

The problem, as mentioned in one of the replies to you, will be trying to disentangle any boost from reviews from a ramp up of last days sales as an acceleration already usually happens from Sun-Thur and there won't time to see a fall from a review bump and seeing a new baseline being established.  

 

But here's the thing.  Sun-Thr accelerations are not created equal.  In fact a decent amount of being able to tell if a film is gonna have a really good preview number is the Sun-Thr acceleration (though here genre also heavily applies, so one should look at it relatively).  Can be a decent guide to walkups as well, though more factors at play there.  And having positive (or wildly positive) reviews can absolutely be a factor though by no means is it guaranteed.