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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

TG: M, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 295 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 467 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 128 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 90 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 149 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 760 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 975 (21 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.864.

Comps: Uncharted (44.0M OW) had 1.062 sold tickets on Wednesday = one day later,

Angel has Fallen (21.4M OW) had 276 sold tickets on the same day

and Midways's (17.9M OW) final number was 300.


TG: M, counted today at 11am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 397 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 517 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 261 (21 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 106 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 84 (16 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 843 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.028 (24 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.235

Not frontloaded in my theaters as it seems.

Comps: Uncharted had 982 sold tickets in 7 theaters on Wednesday = one day later,
F 9 (70M OW) had 2.812 sold tickets also on Wednesday,

Angel has Fallen had 159 sold tickets on Tuesday (I took the wrong day yesterday)

and Midways's final number was 361 (again I made a mistake yesterday, I counted in 10 theaters at that time and used that number - but even better for TG: M).

Still very decent numbers.

 

Bob's Burgers, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 37 ( showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 11 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 21 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 63 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 151 (7 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 320.

Comp: Jackass Forever had one day later, on Wednesday of its release week, 403 sold tickets.


Bob's Burgers, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 69 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 15 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 38 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 11 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 48 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 99 (5 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 294.

 

Comp: Jackass Forever had on the same day, Tuesday of its release week, 584 sold tickets.

Ok numbers so far I would say. The Thursday already looks good.

Edited by el sid
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bigscrubnus said:

I’m new to this tracking scene and I do not really get what these numbers mean. Are JWD mad TGM tracking well?

TGM is tracking very well.

 

Dominion is a wait and see.  Very different behavior than most blockbusters.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, ZackM said:

From last night...

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 0 4 16 4,249
Seats Added 0 0 452 1,761 755,974
Seats Sold 1,709 1,003 1,456 1,218 51,054
           
5/23/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 427 4,269 56,440 758,187 7.44%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 1 5 26 54
           
ATP          
$18.04          

 

its pace is tracking it below BW for the corresponding week. That was at 66333/462524 by T-12 saturday and sold about 17K tickets in a week. JWD pace is lot more anemic. But there were catalysts for BW like social media reactions that did help during the week. Venom 2 could be another comp but its final week was so crazy that its impossible for JWD to do like 60-70% ahead of Venom 2 in final week to hit 18-20m previews. Let us see how things go once TG2 is out of the way. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 5/23/2022 at 3:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 353 2320 15.22%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 384 3250 11.82%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1748 78 25033 6.98% 15 154

 

AMCs sold 1266
Cinemarks sold 210
Regals sold 128
Harkins sold 144

 

1.55x Eternals T-17 (14.70M)

1.20x Black Widow T-17 (15.90M)

4.69x Fast 9 T-17 (33.27M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 360 2320 15.52%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 394 3250 12.12%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1796 48 25033 7.17% 15 154

 

AMCs sold 1298
Cinemarks sold 223
Regals sold 128
Harkins sold 147

 

0.713x Top Gun 2 T-16

0.577x Batman T-16 (12.46M)

1.50x Eternals T-16 (14.27M)

1.20x Black Widow T-16 (15.80M)

4.42x Fast 9 T-16 (31.41M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2022 at 3:16 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-17 Thursday(91 showings): 1355(+66)/26260

1.56x Eternals T-17 (14.83M)

0.740x Black Widow T-17 (9.77M)

 

T-18 Friday(150 showings): 1270(+87)/43519

2.64x Eternals T-18 (56.34M)

1.18x Black Widow T-18 (31.04M)

 

T-19 Saturday(158 showings): 897(+50)/45546

3.24x Eternals T-19 (78.11M)

 

T-20 Sunday(144 showings): 242(+15)/41066

3.06x Eternals T-20 (50.02M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-16 Thursday(93 showings): 1421(+66)/26560

0.513x Top Gun 2 T-16

0.364x Batman T-16 (7.85M)

1.49x Eternals T-16 (14.14M)

0.754x Black Widow T-16 (9.96M)

 

T-17 Friday(150 showings): 1328(+58)/43519

0.505x Top Gun 2 T-17

1.04x Batman T-17 (36.54M)

2.08x Eternals T-17 (44.35M)

1.19x Black Widow T-17 (31.35M)

 

T-18 Saturday(158 showings): 957(+60)/45546

0.571x Top Gun 2 T-18

1.61x Batman T-18 (69.58M)

2.98x Eternals T-18 (71.91M)

 

T-19 Sunday(144 showings): 264(+22)/41066

0.715x Top Gun 2 T-19

1.22x Batman T-19 (41.53M)

3.34x Eternals T-19 (54.57M)

Edited by Inceptionzq
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2022 at 3:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-17 Thursday(114 showings): 4013(+136)/17051 ATP: $14.25

 

T-20 Sunday(148 showings): 1556(+74)/24294 ATP: $13.02

 

Some of the Friday and Saturday showings are giving errors so I'm gonna skip those numbers today. Hopefully it's fine tomorrow

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-16 Thursday(114 showings): 4147(+134)/17051 ATP: $14.26

1.52x Top Gun 2 T-16

0.574x Batman T-16 (10.09M)

 

T-17 Friday(175 showings): 3829(+278)/28240 ATP: $14.60

1.24x Top Gun 2 T-17

0.550x Batman T-17 (19.24M)

 

T-18 Saturday(183 showings): 3756(+270)/29437 ATP: $13.57

1.43x Top Gun 2 T-18

0.621x Batman T-18 (26.83M)

 

T-19 Sunday(148 showings): 1655(+99)/24294 ATP: $13.02

1.42x Top Gun 2 T-19

0.672x Batman T-19 (22.95M)

 

Note that Friday and Saturday are 2 days of sales.

Edited by Inceptionzq
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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

Something about JDW really is picking at my brain, something seems weird, I dont know what it is. I mean yes its still like 3 weeks away, just something niggling there. I have a couple of faint possiblities but Im not ready to disclose those yet. If we get to a week before JWD and numbers still seem to keeping quiet, then maybe, still too far away though. 

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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Something about JDW really is picking at my brain, something seems weird, I dont know what it is. I mean yes its still like 3 weeks away, just something niggling there. I have a couple of faint possiblities but Im not ready to disclose those yet. If we get to a week before JWD and numbers still seem to keeping quiet, then maybe, still too far away though. 


Say it, Tinalera. We’re all thinking it.

 

JWD under JWFK :ohmygod:

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MessiahXXR said:


I have TGM’s 4 day at $160M right now.

its just an instinct at this point. I am thinking 180m with uber strong walkups. I was just sampling saturday number at alpha and its looking really strong as well. its just poised to explode. 

 

JWD has no catalyst until its final week. I have a feeling the reviews will be worse than last movie based on some chatter I hear from folks I would trust. So not sure how they can amp it up. Obviously they will market it big time. But its facing a competitive marketplace. Lightyear is releasing following it and Thor 4 will be buzzing as well by that time as presales are starting a day before JWD release !!!

 

I hope I am wrong and JWD just explodes to BrainBug's satisfaction :-)

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

its just an instinct at this point. I am thinking 180m with uber strong walkups. I was just sampling saturday number at alpha and its looking really strong as well. its just poised to explode. 

 

JWD has no catalyst until its final week. I have a feeling the reviews will be worse than last movie based on some chatter I hear from folks I would trust. So not sure how they can amp it up. Obviously they will market it big time. But its facing a competitive marketplace. Lightyear is releasing following it and Thor 4 will be buzzing as well by that time as presales are starting a day before JWD release !!!

 

I hope I am wrong and JWD just explodes to BrainBug's satisfaction 🙂

 

I expect nothing (good) from the eventual RT watch for Dominion. But i also dont expect bad reviews to affect it all that much.

 

And i also dont expect a surge in presales until the final week. Fallen Kingdoms sales (if my memory serves me right) were pretta lackluster until that final week as well.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)

Looking at Denver, TG2 just thursday is slightly behind JWD(1602 to 1796) but its pace was way higher (90 to 48). Obviously with early shows TG2 is way ahead and TG2 was selling 3.6x JWD(174 to 48). 

 

 

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 360 2320 15.52%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 394 3250 12.12%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1796 48 25033 7.17% 15 154

 

AMCs sold 1298
Cinemarks sold 223
Regals sold 128
Harkins sold 147

0.713x Top Gun 2 T-16

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by keysersoze123
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I expect nothing (good) from the eventual RT watch for Dominion. But i also dont expect bad reviews to affect it all that much.

 

And i also dont expect a surge in presales until the final week. Fallen Kingdoms sales (if my memory serves me right) were pretta lackluster until that final week as well.

We have more fine grained data that during FK timeframe. There is limited chance of it tracking like 100m opener and jumping to 200m OW. Plus with 4PM start vs 7PM start for FK, it will probably not do > 9x previews. Could go lower than that as well. So take that into equation. FK did around 9.7x previews if I am not wrong. 

 

As I said its all instinct and I could be wrong. So this could give us new insight for sure if it does explode like you are expecting. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2022 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 653 2574 25.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1036 2984 34.72%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3888 407 29062 13.38% 15 174

 

AMCs sold 2752
Cinemarks sold 277
Regals sold 699
Harkins sold 160

 

Tuesday

Total 1877               95 2831

Wednesday

Total 234                0 276

Overall

Grand Total 5999              502 32169

 

0.555x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (19.97M)

1.10x Batman T-3 (23.68M)

0.366x NWH T-3 (18.32M)

3.40x Dune T-3 (17.33M)

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 741 3274 22.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1127 2833 39.78%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
4325 437 30131 14.35% 15 193

 

AMCs sold 3051
Cinemarks sold 310
Regals sold 773
Harkins sold 191

 

Tuesday

Total 2250          373 2831

Wednesday

Total 249           15 276

Overall

Grand Total 6824          825 33238

 

0.575x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (20.69M)

1.09x Batman T-2 (23.58M)

0.387x NWH T-2 (19.37M)

3.34x Dune T-2 (17.02M)

Edited by Inceptionzq
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