The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

$50m OW would be surprising for Oppenheimer considering how much older audiences have been lost post COVID but hope it happens

LOL. I dont think we are short of adult movie going audience despite tragically losing 1.165 million. Median age in US is 35 years. 70% of population are over 21 years.

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LOL. I dont think we are short of adult movie going audience despite tragically losing 1.165 million. Median age in US is 35 years. 70% of population are over 21 years.

i'm referring to many of them not coming to theaters after covid not dying off, most adult drama's have bombed over the last couple years

[Cmasterclay]

So after all the handwringing it appears Transformers is doing 50m huh?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Nolan is one of the few directors today whose name is enough for audiences to come out, cause he’s had a crazy streak.(though I am curious what the pace will be once tickets for all versions go on sale).

[keysersoze123]

at Lincoln Sq imax Oppenheimer as sold

Previews - 403/480 7PM , 373/480 11PM

Friday - 288/480 1030AM, 351/480 230PM, 396/480 630PM, 312/480 1030PM. 

 

Impressive for a 3 hour drama !!! I wish Arclight hollywood was open. It was would sold out in the monstrous Dome for sure.  

[Mulder]

35 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So after all the handwringing it appears Transformers is doing 50m huh?

Maybe. 40-50 sounds about right. Not as big of a disaster as some expected, but not great either.

[JD Asencio]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Tal vez. 40-50 suena bien. No es un desastre tan grande como algunos esperaban, pero tampoco grandioso.

How do you calculate the IM of Transformers? couldn't it be a big jump?, TF4 previewed just $8.8M and OW $100M, TLK previews $5.5M on a Wednesday; I don't know much about this maybe I'm wrong

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, JD Asencio said:

How do you calculate the IM of Transformers? couldn't it be a big jump?, TF4 previewed just $8.8M and OW $100M, TLK previews $5.5M on a Wednesday; I don't know much about this maybe I'm wrong

Previews start much earlier now than when AoE and TLK came out Transformers isn't a kids movie so its not gonna pull a 10+x IM like Minions did last summer, its also not as frontloaded as a big superhero sequel like say Thor, probably meets somewhere in the middle at around 7.5x thursday number

[JD Asencio]

7 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Previews start much earlier now than when AoE and TLK came out Transformers isn't a kids movie so its not gonna pull a 10+x IM like Minions did last summer, its also not as frontloaded as a big superhero sequel like say Thor, probably meets somewhere in the middle at around 7.5x thursday number

thanks, so $50M OW is your current ceiling and there is no way for that to improve, except for preview day to improve, considering that this week they release the final trailer they are probably also waiting for the embargo to be lifted, it seems that it is doomed at least domestically

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, JD Asencio said:

thanks, so $50M OW is your current ceiling and there is no way for that to improve, except for preview day to improve, considering that this week they release the final trailer they are probably also waiting for the embargo to be lifted, it seems that it is doomed at least domestically

i mean i haven't tracked the movie so i couldn't tell you about the ceiling for OW but if its good then it can leg out well with summer to play through, elvis last summer opened to 30m and got to 150m domestically, not saying transformers will pull a 5x multi but it can do well

[keysersoze123]

Fun fact about Oppenheimer is in its 3rd day of presales on very limited screens its friday presales is not that far from Indy 5 Friday PS after almost 2 weeks. Indy 5 is not a small movie and is releasing 3 weeks earlier :-)

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 18402/35697 365979.30 178 shows

Previews - 33001/627076 622275.55 3359 shows

Friday - 25350/848328 466429.16 4321 shows

 

less than 3 days of data. So its definitely amping up. 

 

 

Transformers MTC2

Wednesday - 9764/23639 153725.75 134 shows

Previews - 19118/388073 282895.45 2360 shows

 

Weak numbers here. Thinking around 6m previews and low 40s OW for now. But things could change if its not received badly. 

[JpTransformers]

39 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

quero dizer, eu não acompanhei o filme, então não posso falar sobre o teto para OW, mas se for bom, pode se sair bem com o verão para jogar, elvis no verão passado abriu para 30m e chegou a 150m domesticamente, não dizendo transformadores vai puxar um multi 5x, mas pode fazer bem

this is reminiscent of Bumblebee who had an opening of 21m and ended with 127m in the domestic

[Wesley]

5 minutes ago, JpTransformers said:

this is reminiscent of Bumblebee who had an opening of 21m and ended with 127m in the domestic

Remember Bumblebee opened around Christmas holidays. This will not have the same legs as a summer movie with so many other movies coming out too. 

[JpTransformers]

10 minutes ago, Wesley said:

Lembre-se de que Bumblebee abriu nas férias de Natal. Isso não terá as mesmas pernas de um filme de verão com tantos outros filmes saindo também. 

Just an example, logically the new Transformers will not have the same multiplier.

Bumblebee also had competition around the same time, Aquaman and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse were released at close dates.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/2/2023 at 3:59 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1822	22296	8.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:30PM EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

120

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.999x) of Fast X

~$7.5M THUR Previews 

 

 

Updating earlier than normal because I'm seeing ATSV later tonight 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1988	22296	8.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

166

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.033x) of Fast X

~$7.7M THUR Previews 

 

Low to mid $50Ms

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/2/2023 at 4:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

204

3271

6.24%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

145

1705

8.50%

 

Wednesday: 480(+46)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
764	67	18710	4.08%	13	108

 

0.419

JW Dominion T-6

7.55M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

235

3271

7.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

160

1705

9.38%

 

Wednesday: 514(+34)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
840	76	18710	4.49%	13	108

 

1.347

Black Adam T-5

10.24M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/2/2023 at 4:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-6 Thursday

119 Showings

1004

+181

17263

ATP:

15.25

0.150

JW Dominion T-6

2.70M

 

T-7 Friday

133 Showings

835

+166

20995

ATP:

14.38

0.123

JW Dominion T-7

5.10M

 

T-8 Saturday

133 Showings

608

+70

20965

ATP:

14.28

0.095

JW Dominion T-8

4.46M

 

T-9 Sunday

122 Showings

317

+46

19663

ATP:

13.06

0.091

JW Dominion T-9

3.53M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-5 Thursday

122 Showings

1213

+209

17692

ATP:

15.18

0.483

Black Adam T-5

3.67M

 

T-6 Friday

137 Showings

1038

+203

21578

ATP:

14.53

0.472

Black Adam T-6

9.00M

 

T-7 Saturday

136 Showings

782

+174

21340

ATP:

14.18

0.377

Black Adam T-7

8.93M

 

T-8 Sunday

126 Showings

358

+41

20147

ATP:

12.86

0.520

Black Adam T-8

8.64M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/2/2023 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-5 Wednesday	3 Showings	104	+6	445
T-6 Thursday	148 Showings	512	+51	22325

 

T-7 Friday

237 Showings

594

+78

34713

 

T-8 Saturday

238 Showings

460

+36

35085

 

T-9 Sunday

236 Showings

213

+17

34609

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-4 Wednesday	5 Showings	111	+7	817
T-5 Thursday	148 Showings	555	+43	22325

 

T-6 Friday

236 Showings

708

+114

34574

 

T-7 Saturday

238 Showings

534

+74

35088

 

T-8 Sunday

236 Showings

289

+76

34609

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/2/2023 at 4:04 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	2349	25403	9.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

137

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.440x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.704x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.2M THUR Previews 

 

**UNOFFICAL COMP** 

(1.624x) of FAST X

~$12.18M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	2439	25403	9.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

90

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.450x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.9M THUR Previews

 

(0.707x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.3M THUR Previews 

 

**UNOFFICAL COMP** 

(1.666x) of FAST X

~$12.5M THUR Previews

 

Keep in mind ATSV had insane late growth, which the Flash PROBABALY won't replicate...So ATSV comp is probably going to end closer to $11.3M than $12.3M