The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[motionpic05]

20 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Fallen Kingdom was 148M at 2018 ticket prices, which translates to roughly 170M in todays prices. So a debut of 125M would mean a considerable admissions decrease from Fallen Kingdom which cant be seen as a success.

 

On paper, it will make money of course and it still will be one of the years biggest hits. But the context really matters here imo.

Fair enough. I don't think $125 million is happening though. I would be shocked with less than $150 million. 

[Krissykins]

54 minutes ago, Nublar7 said:

How did we get to $125 million now as the projection? That is really low than what most seemed to be projecting earlier.

It’s just the industry tracking. 
 

Deadline are going with $125m too:

 

https://twitter.com/deadline/status/1534281193079721984?s=21&t=9kQVaSBvEXsQ-Zw7XqAybg

 

And Shawn said Universal are just going with “over $100m”. 

[Bigscrubnus]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

It’s just the industry tracking. 
 

Deadline are going with $125m too:

 

https://twitter.com/deadline/status/1534281193079721984?s=21&t=9kQVaSBvEXsQ-Zw7XqAybg

 

And Shawn said Universal are just going with “over $100m”. 

So they’re lowballing the hell out of it?

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

So they’re lowballing the hell out of it?

Deadline say tracking is similar to Top Gun, which did $124m. So maybe they’re not lowballing. Unless there’s evidence in the tracking thread to suggest a bigger opening. 

[motionpic05]

I seriously don't get where the $125m tracking is coming from. 

I still think $150m+ is certain.

[XXR & Friends]

I would be surprised with $125M but let’s put to rest the notion that it’s impossible. Yes it’s unlikely but certainly not impossible. If previews don’t ramp up properly, it looks like reviews aren’t going to help at all. If Thursday comes in under $16M then $125M is in the board. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by T-ReXXR

[Bigscrubnus]

3 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

I would be surprised with $125M but let’s put to rest the notion that it’s impossible. Yes it’s unlikely but certainly not impossible. If previews don’t ramp up properly, it looks like reviews aren’t going to help at all. If Thursday comes in under $16M then $125M is in the board. 

I agree that it’s not impossible. It’s not impossible for a truck to smash into my room right now, killing me. But I also would take a bet on that chance

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

701

2320

30.22%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

717

3250

22.06%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3828	424	28816	13.28%	15	186

 

AMCs sold	2386
Cinemarks sold	616
Regals sold	451
Harkins sold	375

 

0.638x Top Gun 2 T-3 (12.29M)

0.354x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (12.75M)

0.700x Batman T-3 (15.11M)

1.23x Black Widow T-3 (16.20M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

804

3076

26.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

779

3287

23.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4390	562	31328	14.01%	15	213

 

AMCs sold	2643
Cinemarks sold	723
Regals sold	542
Harkins sold	482

 

0.643x Top Gun 2 (12.39M)

0.370x Doctor Strange 2 (13.31M)

0.702x Batman T-2 (15.17M)

1.25x Black Widow T-2 (16.56M)

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

I would be surprised with $125M but let’s put to rest the notion that it’s impossible. Yes it’s unlikely but certainly not impossible. If previews don’t ramp up properly, it looks like reviews aren’t going to help at all. If Thursday comes in under $16M then $125M is in the board. 

 

1 minute ago, Bigscrubnus said:

I agree that it’s not impossible. It’s not impossible for a truck to smash into my room right now, killing me. But I also would take a bet on that chance

 

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

0.643x Top Gun 2 (12.39M)

0.370x Doctor Strange 2 (13.31M)

0.702x Batman T-2 (15.17M)

1.25x Black Widow T-2 (16.56M)

Watch out for that truck….

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-3 Thursday(124 showings): 4151(+609)/32308

0.587x Top Gun 2 T-3 (11.30M)

0.324x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (11.66M)

0.641x Batman T-3 (13.85M)

1.10x Black Widow T-3 (14.50M)

 

T-4 Friday(152 showings): 4550(+886)/43713

0.604x Top Gun 2 T-4 (19.80M)

0.513x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (28.05M)

1.08x Batman T-4 (37.88M)

1.38x Black Widow T-4 (36.38M)

 

T-5 Saturday(167 showings): 3317(+550)/47621

0.587x Top Gun 2 T-5 (22.32M)

0.584x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (33.74M)

1.45x Batman T-5 (62.77M)

 

T-6 Sunday(181 showings): 1153(+181)/46747

0.736x Top Gun 2 T-6 (27.01M)

0.748x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (29.08M)

2.12x Batman T-6 (72.23M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-2 Thursday(149 showings): 4827(+676)/35606

0.594x Top Gun 2 T-2 (11.43M)

0.343x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (12.34M)

0.640x Batman T-2 (13.83M)

1.10x Black Widow T-2 (14.52M)

 

T-3 Friday(298 showings): 5779(+1229)/69162

0.629x Top Gun 2 T-3 (20.59M)

0.555x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (30.34M)

1.10x Batman T-3 (38.55M)

1.47x Black Widow T-3 (38.78M)

 

T-4 Saturday(309 showings): 4072(+755)/71305

0.609x Top Gun 2 T-4 (23.16M)

0.599x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (34.61M)

1.37x Batman T-4 (59.25M)

 

T-5 Sunday(292 showings): 1363(+210)/68015

0.687x Top Gun 2 T-5 (25.21M)

0.779x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (30.29M)

1.89x Batman T-5 (64.36M)

[motionpic05]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-2 Thursday(149 showings): 4827(+676)/35606

0.594x Top Gun 2 T-2 (11.43M)

0.343x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (12.34M)

0.640x Batman T-2 (13.83M)

1.10x Black Widow T-2 (14.52M)

 

T-3 Friday(298 showings): 5779(+1229)/69162

0.629x Top Gun 2 T-3 (20.59M)

0.555x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (30.34M)

1.10x Batman T-3 (38.55M)

1.47x Black Widow T-3 (38.78M)

 

T-4 Saturday(309 showings): 4072(+755)/71305

0.609x Top Gun 2 T-4 (23.16M)

0.599x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (34.61M)

1.37x Batman T-4 (59.25M)

 

T-5 Sunday(292 showings): 1363(+210)/68015

0.687x Top Gun 2 T-5 (25.21M)

0.779x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (30.29M)

1.89x Batman T-5 (64.36M)

Let's also keep in mind that the Jurassic movies aren't as pre-sale heavy. 

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

So they’re lowballing the hell out of it?

 

30 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Fair enough. I don't think $125 million is happening though. I would be shocked with less than $150 million. 

 

17 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

I seriously don't get where the $125m tracking is coming from. 

I still think $150m+ is certain.

Why do you think $125m is so low, what is your view based on? 
 

Literally the most recent update after these posts indicates previews under $15m. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-3 Thursday(168 showings): 8517(+729)/22863 ATP: $14.44

0.718x Top Gun 2 T-3 (13.84M)

0.367x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (13.22M)

0.610x Batman T-3 (10.73M)

 

T-4 Friday(225 showings): 9282(+1028)/32455 ATP: $14.45

1.02x Top Gun 2 T-4 (33.31M)

0.419x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (22.94M)

0.609x Batman T-4 (21.30M)

 

T-5 Saturday(242 showings): 9174(+1095)/34482 ATP: $13.81

1.08x Top Gun 2 T-5 (41.08M)

0.390x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (22.53M)

0.565x Batman T-5 (24.45M)

 

T-6 Sunday(165 showings): 5109(+704)/29205 ATP: $13.29

0.956x Top Gun 2 T-6 (35.06M)

0.373x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (14.51M)

0.613x Batman T-6 (20.94M)

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(218 showings): 9835(+1318)/28465 ATP: $14.43

0.745x Top Gun 2 T-2 (14.35M)

0.383x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (13.78M)

0.615x Batman T-2 (10.82M)

 

T-3 Friday(359 showings): 11642(+2360)/46730 ATP: $14.43

1.07x Top Gun 2 T-3 (35.04M)

0.450x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (24.63M)

0.624x Batman T-3 (21.84M)

 

T-4 Saturday(363 showings): 11476(+2302)/47666 ATP: $13.88

1.16x Top Gun 2 T-4 (44.21M)

0.418x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (24.20M)

0.586x Batman T-4 (25.36M)

 

T-5 Sunday(332 showings): 6245(+1136)/43196 ATP: $13.26

0.988x Top Gun 2 T-5 (36.22M)

0.393x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (15.30M)

0.08x Batman T-5 (20.75M)

[Brainbug]

I think we can all agree that a 125M isnt at all impossible. But i think we can also all agree that this number would be ... not good.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Lightyear first day of sales

 

AMC Wednesday DOLBY EVENT: (27)

 

Thursday

Cinemark: (2)

XD- 3 (2)

4 (0), 710 (0), 10

AMC: (25)

DOLBY- 335(19)

IMAX- 4 (6)

3D- 430 (0), 730 (0), 730 (0)

5, (0), 7 (0), 8 (0)

 

Friday

Cinemark (3)

XD- 10 (0), 1 (2), 4 (2), 

12 (0), 3 (0), 6 (0), 9 (0)

AMC: (4)

IMAX: 4 (0)

DOLBY: 330 (4)

430 (0), 5 (0), 530 (0), 730 (0), 8 (0)

 

Seems a bit lackluster for previews + Friday. But again, this is day 1. Families might still be buying JW this week and this can be walk-up heavy. 

 

Toy Story 4 did 12m previews with 6pm showtimes. I'll take under for Lightyear

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

I think we can all agree that a 125M isnt at all impossible. But i think we can also all agree that this number would be ... not good.

 

Not impossible but seems unlikely. Maybe 10% chance I would guess. 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

I think we can all agree that a 125M isnt at all impossible. But i think we can also all agree that this number would be ... not good.

We can agree there. That would be a 25% drop in total tickets sold VS JWFK. It would be a bigger collapse than TROS.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

There's an AMC investor screening of Black Phone on Wed 15th. Regular format. Here, showing has sold 11 tickets. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

125m not impossible but is seeming pretty unlikely to me, Friday sales are healthy and moving at a good pace. 

[Bigscrubnus]

1 hour ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

 

Watch out for that truck….

Edited June 7, 2022 by Bigscrubnus