The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[robotkiller]

43 minutes ago, Stewart said:

 

This is my thinking, with this being 3 hours +, preview night might inevitably be deflated for other days when people have the time. They will definitely watch it, but there's no spoiler rush to overcome, so why inconvenience yourself for Thursday?

 

I think internal multiplier for this might be shocking compared to other hits this year. And then of course after the weekend we hit holiday period with people off work, where all bets are off as to just how high it flies when every day is a Saturday.

 

Right. Thursday night is going to be a hard sell for many people I suspect depending on the format and where they watch. I'm going to Lincoln Square 13 on Thursday for the big IMAX showtime and there is only one showtime for it at 10:45. I won't be getting out of the theater until after 2 AM. And then I have work at 9AM. 

 

I imagine plenty of people will pick the saner option of waiting for a better showtime on another day. 

[Porthos]

53 minutes ago, Stewart said:

I think internal multiplier for this might be shocking compared to other hits this year. 

 

Little curious here.  Could you define "shocking"?  Or at least the range you think might happen?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

827

2354

35.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

593

2926

20.27%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4087	532	25911	15.77%	15	167

 

AMCs sold	2325
Cinemarks sold	637
Regals sold	623
Harkins sold	502

 

0.828x Top Gun Maverick T-5 (15.94M)

0.852x Batman T-5 (18.41M)

2.08x Eternals T-5 (19.79M)

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

865

2354

36.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

652

2926

22.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4347	260	25911	16.78%	15	167

 

AMCs sold	2466
Cinemarks sold	667
Regals sold	688
Harkins sold	526

 

0.651x Thor L&T T-4 (18.87M)

1.28x Jurassic World Dominion T-4 (22.99M)

0.791x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (14.44M)

0.861x Batman T-4 (18.61M)

2.10x Eternals T-4 (19.97M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Thursday(119 showings): 4196(+431)/27652

0.718x Top Gun Maverick T-5 (13.84M)

0.758x Batman T-5 (16.37M)

 

T-6 Friday(170 showings): 4829(+733)/41509

0.817x Top Gun Maverick T-6 (26.76M)

1.58x Batman T-6 (55.25M)

 

T-7 Saturday(166 showings): 4923(+725)/42016

1.13x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (42.96M)

2.95x Batman T-7

 

T-8 Sunday(175 showings): 2523(+447)/44851

2.35x Top Gun Maverick T-8

6.34x Batman T-8

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-4 Thursday(119 showings): 4426(+230)/27652

0.625x Thor L&T T-4 (18.12M)

1.25x Jurassic World Dominion T-4 (22.49M)

0.707x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (13.61M)

0.763x Batman T-4 (16.49M)

 

T-5 Friday(170 showings): 5229(+400)/41509

1.19x Thor L&T T-5 (48.08M)

1.43x Jurassic World Dominion T-5 (59.47M)

0.804x Top Gun Maverick T-5 (26.33M)

1.53x Batman T-5 (53.47M)

 

T-6 Saturday(166 showings): 5299(+376)/42016

2.13x Thor L&T T-6

1.92x Jurassic World Dominion T-6

1.10x Top Gun Maverick T-6 (41.82M)

2.80x Batman T-6

 

T-7 Sunday(175 showings): 2780(+257)/44851

3.18x Thor L&T T-7

2.86x Jurassic World Dominion T-7

2.11x Top Gun Maverick T-7

6.14x Batman T-7

[XXR vs XXR]

I was thinking about my basic expectations and here's what I came up with. True Friday should be 2.25-2.5x previews, Saturday to be 10-15% higher than true Friday, and Sunday to be 13-18% lower than Saturday. So from that thought process....

$18M Previews = $41-45M True Friday = $45-52M Saturday = $37-45M Sunday = $141-160M OW

$20M Previews = $45-50M True Friday = $50-57M Saturday = $41-50M Sunday = $156-177M OW 

$22M Previews = $50-55M True Friday = $55-63M Saturday = $45-54M Sunday = $172-194M OW 

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Thursday(146 showings): 6843(+853)/20973 ATP: $16.41

1.09x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-5 (16.63M)

0.566x Batman Thurs only T-5 (9.97M)

 

T-6 Friday(217 showings): 8882(+1434)/31405 ATP: $16.07

1.22x Top Gun Maverick T-6 (39.96M)

0.710x Batman T-6 (24.84M)

 

T-7 Saturday(223 showings): 9886(+1401)/32625 ATP: $15.29

1.48x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (56.27M)

0.763x Batman T-7 (33.01M)

 

T-8 Sunday(214 showings): 6222(+831)/31134 ATP: $15.05

1.61x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (58.99M)

1.03x Batman T-8 (35.13M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-4 Thursday(146 showings): 7356(+513)/20973 ATP: $16.43

0.436x Thor L&T T-4 (12.65M)

0.945x Jurassic World Dominion T-4 (17.00M)

1.07x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-4 (16.33M)

0.575x Batman Thurs only T-4 (10.12M)

 

T-5 Friday(217 showings): 9650(+768)/31405 ATP: $16.08

0.670x Thor L&T T-5 (27.15M)

1.17x Jurassic World Dominion T-5 (48.66M)

1.20x Top Gun Maverick T-5 (39.30M)

0.714x Batman T-5 (24.98M)

 

T-6 Saturday(223 showings): 10699(+813)/32625 ATP: $15.27

0.779x Thor L&T T-6 (32.80M)

1.32x Jurassic World Dominion T-6 (61.89M)

1.42x Top Gun Maverick T-6 (53.99M)

0.751x Batman T-6 (32.50M)

 

T-7 Sunday(214 showings): 7015(+793)/31134 ATP: $15.02

0.888x Thor L&T T-7 (28.86M)

1.59x Jurassic World Dominion T-7 (61.47M)

1.55x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (56.76M)

1.01x Batman T-7 (34.61M)

[Stewart]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Little curious here.  Could you define "shocking"?  Or at least the range you think might happen?

Well with Maverick and Wakanda both pulling around 6.5 or so (iirc), then it feels as though a "reasonable" number for Avatar would be around 7-7.5, since you'd expect it to be slightly less driven than those two. But with the preview numbers here seemingly converging to 18M, that "only" gets a weekend figure of 135M, which is well below all tracking figures.

 

While I think previews will go up a bit from the comps here (maybe 20M or so), the IM could go as high as 9 or 10 I think. 
 

i believe the original Avatar hit 11x, although this was with the snowstorm reducing Saturday quite noticeably, and it's an original as well. I would be surprised if it went over 10x. 
 

My current opti-realistic result would be 20M previews, 180M OW, giving an IM of 9x. Based on presales we see here and through the weekend, this seems plausible to me.

 

I have visions of previews coming in lower because of aforementioned factors, e.g. at around 16M and then OW still being 170/180M, because it's so much less convenient on Thursday night for people to watch it.

 

What do you think? Does the data from your tracking support this?

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Stewart said:

Well with Maverick and Wakanda both pulling around 6.5 or so (iirc), then it feels as though a "reasonable" number for Avatar would be around 7-7.5, since you'd expect it to be slightly less driven than those two. But with the preview numbers here seemingly converging to 18M, that "only" gets a weekend figure of 135M, which is well below all tracking figures.

 

While I think previews will go up a bit from the comps here (maybe 20M or so), the IM could go as high as 9 or 10 I think. 
 

i believe the original Avatar hit 11x, although this was with the snowstorm reducing Saturday quite noticeably, and it's an original as well. I would be surprised if it went over 10x. 
 

My current opti-realistic result would be 20M previews, 180M OW, giving an IM of 9x. Based on presales we see here and through the weekend, this seems plausible to me.

 

I have visions of previews coming in lower because of aforementioned factors, e.g. at around 16M and then OW still being 170/180M, because it's so much less convenient on Thursday night for people to watch it.

 

What do you think? Does the data from your tracking support this?

 

I would say that @Inceptionzq's data does seem to indicate more backload in the presales than even JWD had (and that had an 8x IM) BUT that doesn't mean walkups will be more backloaded than JWD. 

 

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I was thinking about my basic expectations and here's what I came up with. True Friday should be 2.25-2.5x previews, Saturday to be 10-15% higher than true Friday, and Sunday to be 13-18% lower than Saturday. So from that thought process....

$18M Previews = $41-45M True Friday = $45-52M Saturday = $37-45M Sunday = $141-160M OW

$20M Previews = $45-50M True Friday = $50-57M Saturday = $41-50M Sunday = $156-177M OW 

$22M Previews = $50-55M True Friday = $55-63M Saturday = $45-54M Sunday = $172-194M OW 

 

I'd think the Saturday bump can be better than that, but friday and sunday % sound reasonable. Although does sunday drop less because monday is start of holidays?

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

I would say that @Inceptionzq's data does seem to indicate more backload in the presales than even JWD had (and that had an 8x IM) BUT that doesn't mean walkups will be more backloaded than JWD. 

 

Yes, I suppose walkups are the big factor to play here. Does it play a la Avatar and JW1 where walkups are huge? Or are presales backloaded because people want to guarantee PLFs and IMAX? Guess we'll find out in less than 7 days time...

[GOGODanca]

When do you guys expect more showtimes go go up?

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Stewart said:

While I think previews will go up a bit from the comps here (maybe 20M or so), the IM could go as high as 9 or 10 I think. 
 

i believe the original Avatar hit 11x, although this was with the snowstorm reducing Saturday quite noticeably, and it's an original as well. I would be surprised if it went over 10x. 

 

The main problem with using the OG Avatar, besides the snowstorm on the coast, is that had Friday Midnights while this is gonna have 3pm Thur previews.  Checking, OG A had 3.5m Friday midnights, so not really any sort of comparison to be made, historically speaking.

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Although does sunday drop less because monday is start of holidays?

 

Sunday drops next weekend should be similar to a typical Summer Sunday. For comparison...

 

Major December OW Sunday Drops

The Force Awakens = 11.3% 

Aquaman = 12% 

SM: NWH = 13.1% 

Rise of Skywalker = 15.1%

Rogue One = 18.6% 

The Last Jedi = 19.8% 

[Stewart]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

The main problem with using the OG Avatar, besides the snowstorm on the coast, is that had Friday Midnights while this is gonna have 3pm Thur previews.  Checking, OG A had 3.5m Friday midnights, so not really any sort of comparison to be made, historically speaking.

Oh very true, I forgot previews used to be midnights! I only started following BO properly after TFA. 
 

And previews are 3pm now? When did that happen, thought they were still 7pm! This changes things for me now, since I thought people only had 1 decent showing at 7pm then others were too late night. But with 3pm it allows for several good showtimes cascaded throughout the afternoon / evening. 

 

Where did you find preview figures? I tried looking up Avatar's but couldn't find them anywhere (which is why 7m was in my head)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

When do you guys expect more showtimes go go up?

 

Depends on the market.  Mine has rolled out its first stage of showtime expansions in some theaters a few days ago, but they're probably gonna start expanding for real over Mo/Tu with some perhaps waiting until the last minute on Wed/Thr morning to see what sort of demand happens when reviews drop.  Might even see a couple tonight.

 

But, really like I said, its market dependent. 

 

Don't forget the 3+ hour run time is gonna put something of a scrunch on things since theaters need to clear four hour-plus blocks, esp if Disney is gonna play hardball on format/projectors/screen size.

 

(is sign locally that they're easing up on the 3D requirement as more 2D showtimes are rolling in so that's something)

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Oh very true, I forgot previews used to be midnights! I only started following BO properly after TFA. 
 

And previews are 3pm now? When did that happen, thought they were still 7pm! This changes things for me now, since I thought people only had 1 decent showing at 7pm then others were too late night. But with 3pm it allows for several good showtimes cascaded throughout the afternoon / evening. 

 

Where did you find preview figures? I tried looking up Avatar's but couldn't find them anywhere (which is why 7m was in my head)

 

This is my go-to link for all things previews:  http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

But I also confirmed it via Google (search terms "Avatar Midnight Screening").

 

===

 

As for previews, they've been getting pushed back earlier and earlier.  Last year No Way Home broke the 3pm line thanks to its length and theater staffing shortages.  Ever since then 2pm to 4pm has been the "standard" with a smattering of 5/6/7 pm'ers.

 

(sadly)

Edited December 12, 2022 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

This is my go-to link for all things previews:  http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

But I also confirmed it via Google (search terms "Avatar Midnight Screening").

 

===

 

As for previews, they've been getting pushed back earlier and earlier.  Last year No Way Home broke the 3pm line thanks to its length and theater staffing shortages.  Ever since then 2pm to 4pm has been the "standard" with a smattering of 5/6/7 pm'ers.

 

(sadly)

Cant wait for when Wednesday Previews become the Norm and the "OD" will include Wed, Thurs and Friday.....

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

This is my go-to link for all things previews:  http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

But I also confirmed it via Google (search terms "Avatar Midnight Screening").

 

===

 

As for previews, they've been getting pushed back earlier and earlier.  Last year No Way Home broke the 3pm line thanks to its length and theater staffing shortages.  Ever since then 2pm to 4pm has been the "standard" with a smattering of 5/6/7 pm'ers.

 

(sadly)

Ah yes I remember BOR from precovid but couldn't for the life of me remember it

 

and couldn't find via google because i was looking for avatar previews, not midnights

 

thanks a bunch

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Cant wait for when Wednesday Previews become the Norm and the "OD" will include Wed, Thurs and Friday.....

Tbh just follow South Korea and France and open on a Wednesday completely, it'll dampen OW and burn off demand. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, Stewart said:

Well with Maverick and Wakanda both pulling around 6.5 or so (iirc),

 

isnt maverick useless as a comparison point because of early access screenings?

what would be its IM if you completely ignored those?