The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[KlapEastwood]

I’m not overly impressed with the amount of tickets sold (just looking at Fandango) in the Huntsville / Birmingham area for Thursday. What’s the current feeling on Thursday in the bigger markets?

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, KlapEastwood said:

I’m not overly impressed with the amount of tickets sold (just looking at Fandango) in the Huntsville / Birmingham area for Thursday. What’s the current feeling on Thursday in the bigger markets?

 

$18-22M 

 

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Sunday drops next weekend should be similar to a typical Summer Sunday. For comparison...

 

Major December OW Sunday Drops

The Force Awakens = 11.3% 

Aquaman = 12% 

SM: NWH = 13.1% 

Rise of Skywalker = 15.1%

Rogue One = 18.6% 

The Last Jedi = 19.8% 

Last few opening sun Dec 18s:

1

(1)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Walt Disney

$37,679,172

-19%

4,157

$9,064

$155,081,681

3

4

(4)

Collateral Beauty

Warner Bros.

$2,004,215

-26%

3,528

$568

$7,102,085

3

1	(1)	Sherlock Holmes: A Game o…	Warner Bros.	$10,334,634	-30%		3,703	$2,791	$39,637,079	3
2	(2)	Alvin and the Chipmunks: …	20th Century…	$6,651,523	-33%		3,723	$1,787	$23,244,744	3
3	(3)	Mission: Impossible—Ghost…	Paramount Pi…	$3,933,794	-17%		425	$9,256	$12,785,204	3

1

(1)

King Kong

Universal

$15,556,225

-23%

3,568

$4,360

$66,181,645

5

3

(3)

The Family Stone

20th Century…

$3,570,500

-27%

2,465

$1,448

$12,521,027

3

 

Lot of the ones you listed are a bit deeper into dec and/or had more spillover. Though I expect plf spillover/Canada can pull it into -15-20ish

Edited December 12, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Eric the IF]

22 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	3021	27336	11.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 143

 

Comp

2.335x of F9 T-5 (16.57M)

2.379x of Venom 2 T-5 (27.59M)

2.484x of No Time to Die T-5 (15.65M)

2.839x of Dune T-5 (14.48M)

2.908x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-5 (17.44M)

1.214x of Top Gun 2 T-5 (23.39M)

1.208x of Jurassic World 3 T-5 (21.75M)

2.428x of Black Adam T-5 (18.46M)

 

I'm...just going to assume this was a weird fluke.

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	3312	27790	11.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 291

 

Comp

2.364x of F9 T-4 (16.78M)

2.321x of Venom 2 T-4 (26.92M)

2.507x of No Time to Die T-4 (15.79M)

2.826x of Dune T-4 (14.41M)

2.826x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-4 (16.95M)

1.215x of Top Gun 2 T-4 (23.41M)

1.219x of Jurassic World 3 T-4 (21.94M)

2.379x of Black Adam T-4 (18.08M)

[Eric the IF]

22 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	514	11535	4.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 47

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.305x of Sing 2 T-11 (2.97M)

0.840x of Sonic 2 T-11 (5.25M)

2.734x of Minions 2 T-11 (29.39M)

12.850x of Super Pets T-11 (28.27M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.170x of Sing 2 T-11 (1.38M)

0.077x of Sonic 2 T-11 (480K)

0.250x of Minions 2 T-11 (2.69M)

1.175x of Super Pets T-11 (2.58M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	514	11535	4.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 47

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.299x of Sing 2 T-10 (2.91M)

0.809x of Sonic 2 T-10 (5.06M)

2.347x of Minions 2 T-10 (25.23M)

12.238x of Super Pets T-10 (26.92M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.151x of Sing 2 T-10 (1.23M)

0.047x of Sonic 2 T-10 (462K)

0.215x of Minions 2 T-10 (2.31M)

1.119x of Super Pets T-10 (2.46M)

[Eric the IF]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	17	5433	0.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.126x of Scream T-26 (441K)

0.094x of Nope T-26 (601K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	17	5433	0.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.104x of Scream T-25 (365K)

0.085x of Nope T-25 (541K)

[interiorgatordecorator]

so I think im seeing the same thing as everyone else and im struggling a bit to see how avatar gets over 170 million, why then does deadline stick with the 200 million projection as its headline number?

isnt it going to look bad on them and on the movie (which I doubt they want to happen)?

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

... why then does deadline ...

 

Really, the Eternal Question of this board.

[narniadis]

3 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Last few opening sun Dec 18s:

1

(1)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Walt Disney

$37,679,172

-19%

4,157

$9,064

$155,081,681

3

4

(4)

Collateral Beauty

Warner Bros.

$2,004,215

-26%

3,528

$568

$7,102,085

3

1	(1)	Sherlock Holmes: A Game o…	Warner Bros.	$10,334,634	-30%		3,703	$2,791	$39,637,079	3
2	(2)	Alvin and the Chipmunks: …	20th Century…	$6,651,523	-33%		3,723	$1,787	$23,244,744	3
3	(3)	Mission: Impossible—Ghost…	Paramount Pi…	$3,933,794	-17%		425	$9,256	$12,785,204	3

1

(1)

King Kong

Universal

$15,556,225

-23%

3,568

$4,360

$66,181,645

5

3

(3)

The Family Stone

20th Century…

$3,570,500

-27%

2,465

$1,448

$12,521,027

3

 

Lot of the ones you listed are a bit deeper into dec and/or had more spillover. Though I expect plf spillover/Canada can pull it into -15-20ish

Interestingly enough, after throwing out Ghost Protocol (it was a limited imax only opening that weekend), based on sheer size, Rogue One is still probably closer to a reality than the -30ish average of the others. This set up is an interesting one, especially since most schools wont be out yet until probably mid-week. So Sunday gets the benefit of colleges out, but not quite the same benefits as the 26th and 2nd with 100% out. 

[Borobudur]

Good to see some slowdown in presale, we need some containment on expectation for A2. I don't wish to see people calling A2 flop with $2bn+ gross like TLK.

 

China presale also see some slowdown, reminding people China is still a restricted market with people STILL very scared of Covid-19. 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Probably because it wasn’t even in the top 25 OWs at the time?   
 

It wasn’t like, *tiny*, but not a really big OW either

The weekend had some snow storm thingy and lets not forget Pre-XMAS didn't had huge openings back then as they can have now. We had Hobbit films opening to similar numbers a few years later and before that LOTR wasn't a lot higher.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

so I think im seeing the same thing as everyone else and im struggling a bit to see how avatar gets over 170 million, why then does deadline stick with the 200 million projection as its headline number?

isnt it going to look bad on them and on the movie (which I doubt they want to happen)?

I think their actual prediction later this week will be lower than that, but yeah they should change this headlines. 

 

The OW is shaping to be very boring tbh, it´s not showing signs of less than 150M OW neither more than 190M OW which i think would shake up things a bit. Seems to be converging to around 20M previews with a very health IM so 160-170M OW, the realistic and reasonable expectation since day 1 of presales. 

 

I think the real fun will be after the OW, seeing how big it can go on holidays.

Edited December 12, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Fanboy]

21 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think their actual prediction later this week will be lower than that, but yeah they should change this headlines. 

 

The OW is shaping to be very boring tbh, it´s not showing signs of less than 150M OW neither more than 190M OW which i think would shake up things a bit. Seems to be converging to around 20M previews with a very health IM so 160-170M OW, the realistic and reasonable expectation since day 1 of presales. 

 

I think the real fun will be after the OW, seeing how big it can go on holidays.

I think it will be fun to track from start to finish. 150M and 190M is also a big difference in numbers and depends on Previews and IM. Then the following weekdays and weekends into its fourth weekend are gonna be a lot of fun too. I've been waiting for this movie's run since I joined the forums more than 12 years ago. 

[Porthos]

On 12/10/2022 at 11:51 PM, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	198	22541	27227	4686	17.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1098
Total Seats Sold Today	296

 

T-5 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	389.20		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	160.75%		19.85m
Bats	82.89		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		21117	22.19%		17.91m
FB3	301.74		136	1553		0/178	23915/25468	6.10%		4456	105.16%		18.10m
TGM	70.42		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	40.84%		13.56m
JWD	101.45		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	42.73%		18.26m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        1117/9649  [11.58% sold]
Matinee:    544/4008  [13.57% | 11.61% of all tickets sold]
3D:          3122/17023  [18.34% | 66.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    2282/7439  [30.68% | 48.70% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	204	22706	27800	5094	18.32%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	573
Total Seats Sold Today	408

T-4 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	381.86		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	174.75%		19.47m
Bats	84.60		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		21117	24.12%		18.27m
FB3	301.60		136	1689		0/178	23779/25468	6.63%		4456	114.32%		18.10m
TGM	71.44		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	44.40%		13.76m
JWD	96.70		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	46.45%		17.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:          1215/9649  [12.59% sold]
Matinee:       587/4008  [14.65% | 11.52% of all tickets sold]
3D:            3381/17023  [19.86% | 66.37% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:      2434/7439  [32.72% | 47.78% of all tickets sold]

[Cap]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

so I think im seeing the same thing as everyone else and im struggling a bit to see how avatar gets over 170 million, why then does deadline stick with the 200 million projection as its headline number?

isnt it going to look bad on them and on the movie (which I doubt they want to happen)?

I would assume they are assuming the inflated PLF and 3D prices tickets are going to give it a boost. Only problem with this there’s only so many of those seats available. And once they are sold out, people just might wait until mid week to go since there isn’t a sequel/hook/they lost spoiler question that would cause people to go feel compelled to go IMMEDIATELY, and every positive review I’ve seen has commented on seeing it in PLF format. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Interestingly enough, after throwing out Ghost Protocol (it was a limited imax only opening that weekend), based on sheer size, Rogue One is still probably closer to a reality than the -30ish average of the others. This set up is an interesting one, especially since most schools wont be out yet until probably mid-week. So Sunday gets the benefit of colleges out, but not quite the same benefits as the 26th and 2nd with 100% out. 

 

I too remember the freakout of 2016  discussion about Rogue One's first few weekdays.

 

Many many electrons died as they splatted on screens across the net over debates about just how many schools were out at the time and how much that might be affecting things.

 

Was actually thinking about bringing it back up in regards to A2, but decided to hold off.

 

Sure am looking forward to those debates again, should they come to pass.

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Porthos

[DAJK]

Just looking at some box office stats that I found kind of interesting. Correct me if I'm wrong on any of these.

 

Smile, at 216M WW, is currently the highest-grossing horror movie of 2022. It will be the first time that a wholly original horror flick has been the year's top-grosser for the genre since 2009's Paranormal Activity.

 

Bullet Train is currently the highest-grossing R-rated movie of 2022 (239M WW). It will be the lowest-grossing "top rated-R movie of the year" since 1989's Lethal Weapon 2. If you want to adjust for inflation... depends what 1983's Flashdance adjusts to.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The weekend had some snow storm thingy and lets not forget Pre-XMAS didn't had huge openings back then as they can have now. We had Hobbit films opening to similar numbers a few years later and before that LOTR wasn't a lot higher.

Pre-xmas didn't have huge openings because there weren't any huge openings movies put in Xmas. TFA or NWH kind of event would have been like 200 in 2009 still 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Legion By Night

[JustLurking]

Honestly looking at INT tracking as well, the US doesn't seem to be alone in lacking the expected final push in PS. We'll see what happens I guess.

[ThomasNicole]

42 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Honestly looking at INT tracking as well, the US doesn't seem to be alone in lacking the expected final push in PS. We'll see what happens I guess.

I don't think it's lacking final push in US, most people here was expecting the TGM / JW comps to go down in final days.

 

Same goes for some INT markets. People got way ahead of themselves with china presales ignoring that they're still in a complicated moment and starts predicting 700-800M. It looks like it will have a great performance there, but their situation needs to be taken in consideration.

 

I would argue what's happening is just the data bringing the somewhat absurd predictions down to earth. If it ended up being a 3B grosser or so, it will be in the long run, not something visible on presales alone like some people was starting to think.

Edited December 12, 2022 by ThomasNicole