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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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On 12/2/2022 at 7:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Violent Night 3,171 68,420   61,914   6,506 1,363 0
Black Panther 2 3,222 60,333 -28.23% 52,349 542.27 7,984 2,132 3,176
Strange World 3,395 46,402 -35.32% 44,904 169.37 1,498 0 1,359
The Menu 2,468 27,814 -21.35% 27,788 154.93 26 0 0
Devotion 2,467 25,378 -16.36% 25,338 194.55 40 0 0
Bones and All 2,413 21,624 -25.04% 21,589 78.29 35 0 0
Black Adam 1,907 15,889 -20.97% 15,868 161.92 21 0 0
Top Gun 2 1,663 13,246   12,990   256 165 0
Ticket to Paradise 1,519 11,373 -32.34% 11,344 110.89 29 0 0
I Heard the Bells 1,109 6,607   6,604   3 0 0
The Fabelmans 589 6,544 -16.08% 6,532 289.96 12 0 0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 1,011 5,592 -38.17% 5,583 103.97 9 0 0
Spirited 586 5,374 -6.94% 5,351   23 0 0
The Chosen 836 5,092 -64.00% 5,092   0 0 0
She Said 986 4,555 -78.45% 4,555 54.72 0 0 0
The Quintessential 832 2,987   2,987   0 0 0

*Drops from 3-day show count

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/2 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Violent Night - 68,420 (3,171 TC)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 66,697 (3,387)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008)

I Heard the Bells - 6,607 (1,109 TC)

 - Lamb - 6,740 (541)

 - On the Come Up - 6,680 (519)

The Quintessential Quintuplets - 2,987 (832)

 - Shamshera - 2,889 (323)

 - Sita Ramam - 2,717 (296)

 - Clean - 2,847 (230)

 

T-1 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Father Stu: Reborn - 5,383 (506 TC)

Spoiler Alert - 5,097 (403 TC)

 - Crimes of the Future - 5,257 (402)

 - Fabelmans - 4,808 (437)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Avatar 2 - 19,029 (2,784 TC) (11,434 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 21,595 (2,856) (2,787 PLF)

 - JW3 - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091 PLF)

 - Minions 2 - 17,719 (2,447) (5,190 PLF)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Puss in Boots (11/26 EA) - 1,096 (1,095)

Puss in Boots (OD) - 9,582 (2,055 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 5,023 (1,735 TC)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

 - One Piece: Red - 4,894 (1,791)

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Black Panther 2 3,156 56,712 -6.00% 48,989 290.72 7,723 2,362 2,348
Violent Night 3,195 54,137 -9.70% 49,170 196.58 4,967 722 0
Strange World 3,033 38,955 -16.05% 38,232 109.59 723 0 621
The Menu 2,403 26,234 -5.68% 26,213 124.80 21 0 0
Devotion 2,479 24,252 -4.44% 24,211 107.38 41 0 0
Black Adam 1,888 16,651 4.80% 16,636 98.50 15 0 0
Father Stu: Reborn 941 11,346   11,320   26 0 0
I Heard the Bells 1,219 11,191 116.88% 11,191 302.95 0 0 0
Bones and All 1,544 10,635 -50.82% 10,620 54.97 15 0 0
Ticket to Paradise 1,248 10,503 -7.65% 10,460 75.15 43 0 0
The Fabelmans 896 9,737 48.79% 9,726 194.00 11 0 0
Spoiler Alert 717 9,706   9,706   0 0 0
Top Gun: Maverick 1,069 7,627 -42.42% 7,313 51.04 314 151 0
Spirited 656 6,399 19.07% 6,370   29 0 0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 766 5,018 -10.26% 5,009 71.70 9 0 0
Elf 1,061 4,547   4,504   43 0 0
She Said 387 2,336 -48.72% 2,336 88.96 0 0 0
Christmas Vacation 569 1,740   1,737   3 0 0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/9 Weekend


OW Showtimes Comps

Father Stu: Reborn - 11,346 (941 TC)

 - Glass Onion - 11,414 (637)

 - Call Jane - 12,049 (972)

 - Courageous Legacy - 11,304 (967)

Spoiler Alert - 9,706 (717 TC)

 - Tiger Rising - 10,246 (801)

 - Mouthful of Air - 10,035 (782)

 - Roadrunner - 10,268 (848)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Avatar 2 - 109,827 (3,136 TC) (63,346 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 130,398 (3,199) (15,559 PLF)

 - JW3 - 117,594 (3,104) (30,356 PLF)

 - Minions 2 - 94,225 (2,848) (24,830 PLF)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Puss in Boots (11/26 EA) - 1,096 (1,095)

Puss in Boots (OD) - 10,247 (2,240 TC)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 9,498 (2,220)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 5,579 (1,938 TC)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

 - Lost City - 5,838 (2,142)

Babylon - 3,851 (1,769 TC)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

 - Marry Me - 3,771 (1,845)

 

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 3,770 (1,545 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 3,770 (1,220)

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On 12/8/2022 at 8:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Avatar 2 T-7 Jax 5 84 97 1,296 11,195 11.58%
    Phx 7 84 124 977 11,861 8.24%
    Ral 8 69 95 1,118 8,473 13.19%
  Total   20 237 316 3,391 31,529 10.76%
I Wanna Dance T-14 Jax 5 15 0 22 1,454 1.51%
    Phx 4 13 1 19 1,277 1.49%
    Ral 9 25 0 33 2,579 1.28%
  Total   17 53 1 74 5,310 1.39%
Puss in Boots T-13 Jax 6 31 0 20 3,261 0.61%
    Phx 6 29 0 14 3,388 0.41%
    Ral 6 33 0 31 3,865 0.80%
  Total   18 93 0 65 10,514 0.62%

 

Avatar 2 T-7 comps

 - Eternals - 1.63x (15.52m)

 - TG2 - .861x (16.61m)

 - JW3 - .939x (16.9m)

 - F9 - 3.51x (24.95m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.88x (24.39m)

 - NTTD - 4.94x (25.7m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.85x (17.13m)

 - Dune - 4.13x (21.04m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 18.5m

 - JW3 - 18.78m

 - FB3 - 21.2m

 

Puss in Boots T-13 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .181x (899k)

 - Minions 2 - .226x (2.43m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-14 comps

 - Elvis - .383x (1.23m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Avatar 2 T-6 Jax 5 84 109 1,405 11,195 12.55%
    Phx 7 92 68 1,045 13,532 7.72%
    Ral 8 73 115 1,233 8,765 14.07%
  Total   20 249 292 3,683 33,492 11.00%
Babylon T-13 Jax 5 12 16 16 1,380 1.16%
    Phx 4 13 22 22 1,357 1.62%
    Ral 8 17 26 26 1,618 1.61%
  Total   17 42 64 64 4,355 1.47%
I Wanna Dance T-13 Jax 5 15 0 22 1,454 1.51%
    Phx 4 13 2 21 1,277 1.64%
    Ral 9 25 0 33 2,579 1.28%
  Total   17 53 2 76 5,310 1.43%
M3GAN T-27 Jax 5 20 5 5 1,758 0.28%
    Phx 4 11 4 4 1,327 0.30%
    Ral 7 14 10 10 1,817 0.55%
  Total   16 45 19 19 4,902 0.39%
Puss in Boots T-12 Jax 6 31 0 20 3,261 0.61%
    Phx 6 29 0 14 3,388 0.41%
    Ral 6 33 1 32 3,865 0.83%
  Total   18 93 1 66 10,514 0.63%

 

Avatar 2 T-6 comps

 - Eternals - 1.667x (15.84m)

 - TG2 - .866x (16.71m)

 - JW3 - .959x (17.27m)

 - F9 - 3.53x (25.1m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.82x (16.91m)

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 18.85m

 - JW3 - 19.16m

 - FB3 - 20.89m

 

Puss in Boots T-12 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .175x (870k)

 - Minions 2 - .215x (2.31m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.11m)

 

Babylon T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .291x (931k)

 

M3GAN T-27 comps

 - BW - .035x (467k)

 - JW3 - .014x (255k)

 

(Not much to go on)

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On 12/8/2022 at 9:19 AM, M37 said:

Updated T-8, with a lot of data points the last few days, definitely showing some upward trajectory in the trendlines

 

Sh4R7Av.png

 

However, a word of caution: if Avatar were to prove to be a more pre-sale heavy title, seeing a growth vs comps from the ~T-14/11 to ~T-4 period, before lagging a bit down the homestretch and dipping back down, is precisely the pattern one would expect ...

Updated with data through T-7. Still a big gap between the highs and lows, really not much in the middle near where the average lines lie around $19M. How much convergence trends towards those upper vs lower bounds is the question in the final week

 

SYxYHtl.png

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53 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Avatar 2 T-6 Jax 5 84 109 1,405 11,195 12.55%
    Phx 7 92 68 1,045 13,532 7.72%
    Ral 8 73 115 1,233 8,765 14.07%
  Total   20 249 292 3,683 33,492 11.00%
Babylon T-13 Jax 5 12 16 16 1,380 1.16%
    Phx 4 13 22 22 1,357 1.62%
    Ral 8 17 26 26 1,618 1.61%
  Total   17 42 64 64 4,355 1.47%
I Wanna Dance T-13 Jax 5 15 0 22 1,454 1.51%
    Phx 4 13 2 21 1,277 1.64%
    Ral 9 25 0 33 2,579 1.28%
  Total   17 53 2 76 5,310 1.43%
M3GAN T-27 Jax 5 20 5 5 1,758 0.28%
    Phx 4 11 4 4 1,327 0.30%
    Ral 7 14 10 10 1,817 0.55%
  Total   16 45 19 19 4,902 0.39%
Puss in Boots T-12 Jax 6 31 0 20 3,261 0.61%
    Phx 6 29 0 14 3,388 0.41%
    Ral 6 33 1 32 3,865 0.83%
  Total   18 93 1 66 10,514 0.63%

 

Avatar 2 T-6 comps

 - Eternals - 1.667x (15.84m)

 - TG2 - .866x (16.71m)

 - JW3 - .959x (17.27m)

 - F9 - 3.53x (25.1m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.82x (16.91m)

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 18.85m

 - JW3 - 19.16m

 - FB3 - 20.89m

 

Puss in Boots T-12 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .175x (870k)

 - Minions 2 - .215x (2.31m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.11m)

 

Babylon T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .291x (931k)

 

M3GAN T-27 comps

 - BW - .035x (467k)

 - JW3 - .014x (255k)

 

(Not much to go on)


Hi, I’m trying to understand these numbers, are they pre-sales for the opening day, opening weekend, or the previews day?   thanks

 

Edited by wboxoffice
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Avatar 2

Calgary Alberta Canada

Dec 15 and Dec 16 (Taken Dec 9) No Comps

 

  # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent  
Thurs 8 65 948 10453 11401 0.0831  
friday 8 49 1698 7728 9426 0.1801  

 

Thursday 

Show increase of 28, Seat sold increase of 298 

 

As an aside, Its been nice to see the positive reactions to people liking the country wide type percentages. I know 99 percent of everyone is obviously more focused on US numbers, but I am happy to be bringing Northern numbers so people can use them as they see fit in figuring out their calculations. I may continue this for other films, as i am rather enjoying seeing the different regions and how they are comparing.

 

Im trying to decide if I want to do comps going into new year. If I do, I will do comps for Toronto only as that is what I have for previous. If I do continue the countrywide thing though it would only be a comp every three days-so Im not sure. Have to see how the holiday and into new year shakes out.

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5 hours ago, M37 said:

 

Looks like I never posted the T-11 update for this market, but here's T-7 breakdown by format, with decent growth in 3D and Standard 2 shows over the past few days

oz5MQR1.png

 

As much as the hype train seems to be barreling down the tracks the last few days, let me try to pump the breaks a bit? At present, PLF ticket (2,403) still represent over 62.8% of all Thursday sales in this market, and available seats continue to dwindle. So let's set a nice round target of 3,000 total PLF tickets by preview Thursday, and look at what share (%) of overall ticket sales that estimated figure could represent:

 

PLF Share 62.8% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25%
PLF Tickets 2,403 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
3D/2D Tickets 1,423 2,000 2,455 3,000 3,667 4,500 5,571 7,000 9,000
3D/2D Growth   40.5% 72.5% 110.8% 157.7% 216.2% 291.5% 391.9% 523.5%
Overall Growth   30.7% 42.6% 56.8% 74.2% 96.0% 124.0% 161.4% 213.6%

 

 

For reference, here is the approximate (eyeball average) growth rate from T-7 to T-0 for some high profile titles, including the comps being used for Avatar

  • JWD = ~190%
  • TGM = ~150% (includes EA shows)
  • Batman = ~130%
  • BPWF = ~100%
  • Venom 2 = ~400%

In other words, in order for overall tickets sales to pace like TGM (+160%) over this final week even as PLF shows cap out, the 2D & 3D shows would have to sell at Venom 2 pace (+400%) during that time!! At least to me, that seems like a pretty high bar, which is why I continue to expect a much more muted final push, with a convergence between the higher walk-up titles (TGM, JWD) and the more pre-sale heavy CBMs (Batman et all)

 

When it comes to PLF penetration, there's a reason why I've been using Dune as a comp even though it had a ***FAR*** smaller preview night (and thus I wouldn't normally dream of using it).

 

As I check, Dune had around a 55% PLF penetration, which is just bananas. Closest one I can find at a super quick glance, again locally, was Top Gun: Maverick which was 53% locally thanks to additional early access PLF showings.  But that didn't sell a single 3D ticket (it will have ticket inflation factored in, however).  Even The Batman with all of its extra EA showings "only" had around 48% PLF sales locally (and of course no 3D).

 

Using Dune and Top Gun: Maverick, after making various adjustments for 3D and ticket inflation as needed, will probably be my touchstones for the final comp locally.

 

(needless to say, given how frontloaded TGM was locally, I expect A2 to sell far more tickets locally than TGM did in the last week)

Edited by Porthos
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3 hours ago, JustLurking said:

previews

 

Thanks, so basically when I read this:

 

I Wanna Dance T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.11m)


Does it mean that I Wanna Dance is heading right now towards 1.11m Previews which is .345x of the Elvis previews when that movie was also 13 days prior to release?   And is this based only on the chart that includes previews sales from Jax, Phx, Ral, and not the whole USA?  Thanks

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2 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

 

Thanks, so basically when I read this:

 

I Wanna Dance T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.11m)


Does it mean that I Wanna Dance is heading right now towards 1.11m Previews which is .345x of the Elvis previews when that movie was also 13 days prior to release?   And is this based only on the chart that includes previews sales from Jax, Phx, Ral, and not the whole USA?  Thanks

 

That's correct!  If it follows Elvis' sales the rest of the way, those areas would point to a preview of 1.11m.  

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3 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

 

Thanks, so basically when I read this:

 

I Wanna Dance T-13 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.11m)


Does it mean that I Wanna Dance is heading right now towards 1.11m Previews which is .345x of the Elvis previews when that movie was also 13 days prior to release?   And is this based only on the chart that includes previews sales from Jax, Phx, Ral, and not the whole USA?  Thanks

 

Correct. Just keep in mind that this is only one comp, and certain places over/underperform for varying reasons. 

 

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On 12/8/2022 at 12:03 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-10 Avatar 2 (Sun) PLF 75 81 1,263 12,210 10.34% $14.98 $18,917.63
    Standard 53 4 358 6,908 5.18% $10.00 $3,578.97
  Total   128 85 1,621 19,118 8.48% $13.88 $22,496.60
T-7 Avatar 2 PLF 54 120 2,184 8,429 25.91% $15.85 $34,626.72
    Standard 44 46 531 5,959 8.91% $11.97 $6,356.02
  Total   98 166 2,715 14,388 18.87% $15.09 $40,982.74
T-8 Avatar 2 (Fri) PLF 75 98 2,014 12,210 16.49% $16.34 $32,899.19
    Standard 54 30 510 7,010 7.28% $12.42 $6,332.46
  Total   129 128 2,524 19,220 13.13% $15.54 $39,231.65
T-9 Avatar 2 (Sat) PLF 74 131 2,090 11,989 17.43% $15.37 $32,113.03
    Standard 53 32 493 6,899 7.15% $10.96 $5,401.15
  Total   127 163 2,583 18,888 13.68% $14.52 $37,514.18

 

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-10 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 58 42 562 9,191 6.11% $17.99 $10,113.08
    Y 70 43 1,059 9,927 10.67% $11.69 $12,383.52
  Total   128 85 1,621 19,118 8.48% $13.88 $22,496.60
T-7 Avatar 2 N 70 103 2,114 10,373 20.38% $15.94 $33,689.39
    Y 28 63 601 4,015 14.97% $12.14 $7,293.35
  Total   98 166 2,715 14,388 18.87% $15.09 $40,982.74
T-8 Avatar 2 (Fri) N 59 91 1,935 9,293 20.82% $16.60 $32,117.33
    Y 70 37 589 9,927 5.93% $12.08 $7,114.32
  Total   129 128 2,524 19,220 13.13% $15.54 $39,231.65
T-9 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 58 96 1,252 9,184 13.63% $17.24 $21,585.80
    Y 69 67 1,331 9,704 13.72% $11.97 $15,928.38
  Total   127 163 2,583 18,888 13.68% $14.52 $37,514.18

 

Avatar previews T-7 comps

 - NWH - .173x (8.64m)

 - Batman - .79x (13.91m)

 - Thor 4 - .428x (12.41m)

 - DS2 - .246x (8.84m)

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.283x (18.86m)

 - FB3 - 4.095x (24.57m)

 - JW3 - missed

 

Avatar Fri T-8 comps

 - NWH - .196x (14.08m)

 - DS2 - .316x (17.28m)

 - Batman - .872x (30.51m)

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-6 Avatar 2 PLF 54 160 2,344 8,429 27.81% $15.82 $37,082.86
    Standard 44 105 636 5,959 10.67% $12.10 $7,696.23
  Total   98 265 2,980 14,388 20.71% $15.03 $44,779.09
T-7 Avatar 2 (Fri) PLF 81 271 2,285 12,771 17.89% $16.23 $37,094.49
    Standard 61 72 582 8,052 7.23% $12.41 $7,221.50
  Total   142 343 2,867 20,823 13.77% $15.46 $44,315.99
T-8 Avatar 2 (Sat) PLF 81 229 2,319 12,777 18.15% $15.30 $35,477.16
    Standard 60 59 552 7,941 6.95% $11.06 $6,105.33
  Total   141 288 2,871 20,718 13.86% $14.48 $41,582.49
T-9 Avatar 2 (Sun) PLF 81 132 1,395 12,771 10.92% $15.03 $20,971.91
    Standard 59 13 371 7,838 4.73% $10.02 $3,715.81
  Total   140 145 1,766 20,609 8.57% $13.98 $24,687.72

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-6 Avatar 2 N 70 198 2,312 10,373 22.29% $15.86 $36,666.71
    Y 28 67 668 4,015 16.64% $12.14 $8,112.38
  Total   98 265 2,980 14,388 20.71% $15.03 $44,779.09
T-7 Avatar 2 (Fri) N 64 235 2,170 9,902 21.91% $16.53 $35,879.54
    Y 78 108 697 10,921 6.38% $12.10 $8,436.45
  Total   142 343 2,867 20,823 13.77% $15.46 $44,315.99
T-8 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 64 152 1,404 10,020 14.01% $17.15 $24,078.86
    Y 77 136 1,467 10,698 13.71% $11.93 $17,503.63
  Total   141 288 2,871 20,718 13.86% $14.48 $41,582.49
T-9 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 62 72 634 9,688 6.54% $17.99 $11,407.56
    Y 78 73 1,132 10,921 10.37% $11.73 $13,280.16
  Total   140 145 1,766 20,609 8.57% $13.98 $24,687.72

 

Avatar previews T-6 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - Batman - missed

 - Thor 4 - .452x (13.09m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.284x (18.87m)

 - FB3 - 3.716x (22.29m)

 - JW3 - missed

 

Avatar Fri T-7 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman - missed

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.

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Friday Dec 9th Salt Lake Valley update for Avatar 2: The Way of Water.

 

Preview Night:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non-PLF) 144 (+20)

Cinemark Draper XD 222 (+45)

Cinemark Farmington XD 281 (+20)

Total Tix Sold: 647 (+85), increase of 15.1% from two days ago.

 

Current A2 presale as a % of FINAL presale:

Nope 215%

Black Adam 174%

B.P. Wakanda 53%

 

Current A2 presale as a % of FINAL presale, Sugarhouse only.

Elvis 152%

JW: Dominion 39.6%

The Batman 34.2%

Thor: L&T 28.8%

 

Cooled off a bit after the review bump, but still solid. More screenings showing up today, including some additional 2Ds.

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Quorum Updates

Empire of Light T-1: 12.51% Awareness, 4.52 Interest

Babylon T-15: 27.57%, 5.15

M3GAN T-29: 35.08%, 5.86

Jesus Revolution T-76: 16.52%, 4.73

Chevalier T-120: 16%, 4.62

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-148: 50.47%, 6.51

Fast X T-162: 40.51%, 6.24

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-183: 38.89%, 6.05

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-218: 32.83%, 5.83

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