The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-3

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	2208	30031	7.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

193

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.71

 

NOTE: These numbers are bad (outright dreadful). The pace is abysmal (It should be selling well over 400 seats per a day this close to T-0) and its even falling behind Shazam's final push! 

 

It's losing ground to John Wick and its going to fall far behind GOTG comps tomorrow. By T-0 comps will probably point to $6M previews and low-mid $60Ms OW 

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.273x) ~$4.8M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$47.5M OW)

 

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.079x) ~$9.6M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$95M OW)

 

If it falls between the two comps: $71M OW ; $7.2M THUR 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
210	2493	35801	6.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

285

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.78

 

Good news, show allocation is way up. Bad news, pace is still pretty weak

 

COMPS

T-2

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.287x) ~$5.0M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$49.5M OW)

 

JOHN WICK 4

(0.983x) ~$8.7M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$86M OW)

 

Prediction as of rn: $68M OW ; $7M THUR 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2802	32751	8.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.479x) ~$8.4M THUR

 

If it follows Aladdin IM (~$107M OW)

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2928	32751	8.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

126

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.460x) ~$8.1M THUR

 

If it follows Aladdin IM (~$103M OW)

 

Mario

(0.612x) ~$19.5M THUR

 

If previews fall in between both of these comps: ~$13.8M THUR

Edited May 16, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY incl EA 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	961	22296	4.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.87

 

 

COMPS

T-24

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.213x) ~$3.8M THUR 

 

If it follows Bumblebee IM ~$28M OW

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	989	22296	4.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.87

 

 

COMPS

T-23

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.215x) ~$3.9M THUR 

 

If it follows Bumblebee IM ~$29M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2834	25449	11.4%

*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

COMPS

T-17

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.569x) ~$9.9M THUR

 

If it follows ITSV IM (~$98M OW)

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-16

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2926	25449	11.5%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

92

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.576x) ~$10.1M THUR

 

If it follows ITSV IM (~$99M OW)

[Flamengo81]

How do you guys think sales will behave in NBA game days from now on, since it's conference finals and finals now. Any significant effect either positive or negative in game days?

[screambaby]

29 million would have been a bad opening weekend for scream 6. For transformers it's instant death.

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	20609	22614	2005	8.87%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	107
Total Seats Sold Today	142

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	309.41		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	50.75%		19.34m
JWD	62.93		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	18.28%		11.33m
BA	178.86		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	44.62%		13.59m
Scream VI	248.14		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	63.98%		14.14m
Wick 4	144.04		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	36.80%		12.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       307/5603  [5.48% sold]
Matinee:        69/621  [11.11% | 3.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            225/3948  [5.70% | 11.22% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.93862x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [15.61m]    
TLM = 1.02691x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [14.17m]    
TLM = 0.59173x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [15.65m]    
TLM = 1.0571x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [10.33m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

How much of daily/total sales for early shows? I know it was quite small last time you updated. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Flamengo81 said:

How do you guys think sales will behave in NBA game days from now on, since it's conference finals and finals now. Any significant effect either positive or negative in game days?

Nothing significant I would hope

@Inceptionzq tracks Denver so that may see an impact (Nuggets are going to the finals 😉)

 

@el sid tracks Miami and LA chains so that may also see a hit 

[screambaby]

23 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Nothing significant I would hope

@Inceptionzq tracks Denver so that may see an impact (Nuggets are going to the finals 😉)

 

@el sid tracks Miami and LA chains so that may also see a hit 

So we in Boston are chopped liver?

Edited May 16, 2023 by screambaby

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How much of daily/total sales for early shows? I know it was quite small last time you updated. 

 

Still plenty of room for growth.

 

As of last night:

 

Early Access - 6pm			
Arden (2D)		47	271	17.34%
Natoms (2D)		9	144	6.25%
Greenback (2D) 		15	175	8.57%
Blue Oaks (2D)		15	101	14.85%
Doco (2D)		18	214	8.41%
Delta Shores (2D)	21	218	9.63%
Cen Laguna (2D)		22	168	13.10%
Roseville (2D) 		9	205	4.39%
Roseville (BOX)		9	20	
			165	1516	10.88%

 

About 8.2% of all sales at the moment (165/2005 = 8.229%)

 

Just a complete lack of frontloading right now.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/15/2023 at 3:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

215

2019

10.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

185

1266

14.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1088	N/A	20127	5.41%	13	113

 

0.837x Black Adam T-3 (6.36M)

0.284x Jurassic World Dominion T-3 (5.12M)

1.32x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-3 (5.95M)

0.752x No Time to Die T-3 (4.68M)

1.03x Fast 9 T-3 (7.32M)

Fast X Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

259

2437

10.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

206

1721

11.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1285	197	21963	5.85%	13	120

 

0.806x Black Adam T-2 (6.13M)

0.293x JW Dominion T-2 (5.27M)

1.25x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-2 (5.60M)

0.732x NTTD T-2 (4.56M)

1.02x Fast 9 T-2 (7.27M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/15/2023 at 4:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-3 Thursday(172 showings): 2947/25916 ATP: $16.19

0.891x Black Adam T-3 (6.77M)

0.346x JW Dominion T-3 (6.23M)

0.854x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-3 (3.84M)

 

T-4 Friday(228 showings): 3051/33988 ATP: $16.40

0.946x Black Adam T-4 (18.07M)

0.329x JW Dominion T-4 (13.68M)

0.915x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-4 (11.12M)

 

T-5 Saturday(230 showings): 2128/33742 ATP: $16.11

0.707x Black Adam T-5 (16.77M)

0.232x JW Dominion T-5 (10.88M)

0.614x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-5 (9.88M)

 

T-6 Sunday(198 showings): 804/29596 ATP: $15.93

0.722x Black Adam T-6 (11.99M)

0.157x JW Dominion T-6 (6.07M)

0.465x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-6 (5.07M)

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(229 showings): 3561(+614)/31203 ATP: $16.08

0.872x Black Adam T-2 (6.63M)

0.362x JW Dominion T-2 (6.52M)

0.923x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-2 (4.15M)

 

T-3 Friday(362 showings): 3924(+873)/47781 ATP: $16.34

0.930x Black Adam T-3 (17.74M)

0.337x JW Dominion T-3 (14.02M)

0.991x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-3 (12.04M)

 

T-4 Saturday(363 showings): 2603(+475)/47748 ATP: $15.95

0.687x Black Adam T-4 (16.29M)

0.227x JW Dominion T-4 (10.64M)

0.644x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-4 (10.59M)

 

T-5 Sunday(321 showings): 1071(+267)/42567 ATP: $15.64

0.744x Black Adam T-5 (12.36M)

0.171x JW Dominion T-5 (6.62M)

0.531x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-5 (5.79M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/15/2023 at 4:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

138

2943

4.68%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

114

2409

4.73%

 

Wednesday: 253 sold

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
711	N/A	23716	3.75%	12	160

 

2.28x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-10 (10.23M)

1.08x Shang-Chi T-10 (9.48M)

0.325x Avatar 2 T-10 (5.53M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

140

3215

4.35%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

117

2071

5.65%

 

Wednesday: 286(+33) sold

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
784	73	25319	3.81%	13	162

 

0.345x Avatar 2 T-9 (5.86M)

0.448x JW Dominion T-9 (8.04M)

2.29x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-9 (10.31M)

1.07x Shang-Chi T-9 (9.42M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/15/2023 at 4:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 Wednesday(3 showings): 275/321

T-10 Thursday(139 showings): 3645/21037 ATP: $16.58

1.90x Ghostbusters T-10 (8.57M)

0.841x Avatar 2 T-10 (14.29M)

 

T-11 Friday(198 showings): 5405/30889 ATP: $15.87

3.03x Ghostbusters T-11 (36.82M)

0.913x Avatar 2 T-11 (33.05M)

 

T-12 Saturday(207 showings): 5564/31816

3.10x Ghostbusters T-12 (50.96M)

0.787x Avatar 2 T-12 (34.89M)

 

T-13 Sunday(194 showings): 3624/29848

4.40x Ghostbusters T-13 (48.02M)

0.857x Avatar 2 T-13 (31.34M)

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-8 Wednesday(3 showings): 286(+11)/321

T-9 Thursday(152 showings): 3891(+246)/22574 ATP: $16.50

0.842x Avatar 2 T-9 (14.31M)

0.799x JW Dominion T-9 (14.39M)

1.89x Ghostbusters T-9 (8.52M)

 

T-10 Friday(203 showings): 5763(+358)/31556 ATP: $15.89

0.875x Avatar 2 T-10 (31.68M)

1.09x JW Dominion T-10 (45.33M)

2.94x Ghostbusters T-10 (35.73M)

 

T-11 Saturday(210 showings): 5893(+329)/32242

0.786x Avatar 2 T-11 (34.84M)

1.15x JW Dominion T-11 (53.92M)

2.99x Ghostbusters T-11 (49.15M)

 

T-12 Sunday(195 showings): 3889(+265)/29990

0.849x Avatar 2 T-12 (31.05M)

1.45x JW Dominion T-12 (56.14M)

4.21x Ghostbusters T-12 (46.00M)

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/15/2023 at 4:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

344

2967

11.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

224

1754

12.77%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1382	N/A	21712	6.36%	12	128

 

0.791x JW Dominion T-17 (14.23M)

0.456x Batman T-17 (9.85M)

1.22x Eternals T-17 (11.62M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

349

3200

10.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

232

1875

12.37%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1452	70	24658	5.89%	13	134

 

0.479x Ant-Man 3 T-16 (8.38M)

0.808x JW Dominion T-16 (14.55M)

0.466x Batman T-16 (10.07M)

1.21x Eternals T-16 (11.53M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/15/2023 at 4:33 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-17 Thursday(129 showings): 3844/20228 ATP: $16.05

0.958x JW Dominion T-17 (17.24M)

0.539x Batman Thurs only T-17 (9.49M)

1.10x Eternals T-17 (10.43M)

 

T-18 Friday(176 showings): 3024/28935 ATP: $16.12

0.820x JW Dominion T-18 (34.10M)

0.448x Batman T-18 (15.70M)

1.05x Eternals T-18 (22.41M)

 

T-19 Saturday(169 showings): 3200/27994

0.884x JW Dominion T-19 (41.45M)

0.537x Batman T-19 (23.23M)

1.14x Eternals T-19 (27.50M)

 

T-20 Sunday(152 showings): 1640/25215

1.05x JW Dominion T-20 (40.53M)

0.716x Batman T-20 (24.43M)

1.06x Eternals T-20 (17.39M)

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-16 Thursday(129 showings): 3972(+128)/20228 ATP: $16.04

0.429x Ant-Man 3 T-16 (7.51M)

0.958x JW Dominion T-16 (17.24M)

0.550x Batman Thurs only T-16 (9.67M)

1.01x Eternals T-16 (9.60M)

 

T-17 Friday(176 showings): 3193(+169)/28935 ATP: $16.11

0.425x Ant-Man 3 T-17 (12.30M)

0.834x JW Dominion T-17 (34.69M)

0.459x Batman T-17 (16.05M)

1.03x Eternals T-17 (21.94M)

 

T-18 Saturday(169 showings): 3356(+156)/27994

0.489x Ant-Man 3 T-18 (16.58M)

0.894x JW Dominion T-18 (41.92M)

0.555x Batman T-18 (24.00M)

1.08x Eternals T-18 (25.94M)

 

T-19 Sunday(152 showings): 1752(+112)/25215

0.532x Ant-Man 3 T-19 (13.71M)

1.06x JW Dominion T-19 (40.86M)

0.712x Batman T-19 (24.29M)

1.04x Eternals T-19 (16.93M)

[joselowe]

Are these numbers for Little Mermaid good or bad or so-so? I expected it to have picked up steam by now but it seems to be the same levels as last week.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Are these numbers for Little Mermaid good or bad or so-so? I expected it to have picked up steam by now but it seems to be the same levels as last week.

 

11 hours ago, M37 said:

Time for a Little Mermaid Update? Before I dive in, just want to make something clear that perhaps I failed to do before: the process I use is mostly title blind, in that it is based almost exclusively on the trends in ticket sales, and I'm largely trying to avoid incorporating my own personal or even industry tracking expectations into the results; not determining how the data could/would arrive at an expected outcome. That may generate a forecast range and mid-point that is much higher or lower than the general consensus, but is very much supported by the data, even if I think its reasonable to expect the actual outcome to trend much closer to the high or low side of the range. However, the data set being used is limited, making it difficult to truly know what is a repeatable high or low end result vs true outlier exception, and in order to keep the width of the range limited and useful - particularly before T-7 in the sales cycle - somewhat subjective choices have to be made on the upper, lower, and midpoint expected outcomes

If you are unsure what all of that means, then please feel free to ignore what follows, because it will be open to misinterpretation

 

With that mouthful of caveats out of the way, what is does the sales data look like at T-10? Really freakin good - can certainly make a case that the Memorial Day weekend record set last year by TGM may be in jeopardy. We're still flying a bit blind with lack of a good comp, but the early sales volume is high enough that even if it were to pace a little below the JW4/BA/Scream VI grouping from this point, still likely gets to double digits for Thursday ... and the pace over the last week is slightly above that range, tracking closer to Sonic 2. Now as @Porthos has mentioned, there has been a marketing push over that period, so that very well may be inflated, but even Scream VI pace from here gets you to ~$12M (after adjusting the PSM)

 

As for the IM, the 10x range of Minions/Lightyear/Ghostbusters is still in play, and the Thu/Fri/Sat ratio of sales from latest Drafthouse updates are off the charts for releases of this size, well ahead of even Avatar 2, which had a 7.88x (and 5.74x by Sat). However, last MTC1 Friday count isn't as glowing, but pacing better than Thursday, so will have to see how that shakes out as release approaches. Still in the ~8-10x+ range, tentatively

 

Enough data to bump up the Thursday range somewhat, but unfortunately not enough clarity on trajectory yet to really start narrowing it down. Personally, based on the soft tracking numbers like Quorum and what Shawn & Co use, I again think this display overestimates the potential outcome, but also can't ignore the sales data in hand, until (if?) we start to see it level off a bit and find the groove it will follow to the finish

Thursday Forecast: $10-$16M

OW 3-day Forecast: $95-$130M

 

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$10.0	$11.0	$12.0	$13.0	$14.0	$15.0	$16.0	$17.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.00	$72.0	$80.0	$88.0	$96.0	$104.0	$112.0	$120.0	$128.0	$136.0
	8.31	$74.8	$83.1	$91.4	$99.8	$108.1	$116.4	$124.7	$133.0	$141.3
	8.63	$77.6	$86.3	$94.9	$103.5	$112.1	$120.8	$129.4	$138.0	$146.6
	8.94	$80.4	$89.4	$98.3	$107.3	$116.2	$125.1	$134.1	$143.0	$151.9
	9.25	$83.3	$92.5	$101.8	$111.0	$120.3	$129.5	$138.8	$148.0	$157.3
	9.56	$86.1	$95.6	$105.2	$114.8	$124.3	$133.9	$143.4	$153.0	$162.6
	9.88	$88.9	$98.8	$108.6	$118.5	$128.4	$138.3	$148.1	$158.0	$167.9
	10.19	$91.7	$101.9	$112.1	$122.3	$132.4	$142.6	$152.8	$163.0	$173.2
	10.50	$94.5	$105.0	$115.5	$126.0	$136.5	$147.0	$157.5	$168.0	$178.5

 

 

 

V good, IMO.

[poweranimals]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any word on when Flash tickets go on sale yet.

[Porthos]

Just now, poweranimals said:

I'm surprised there hasn't been any word on when Flash tickets go on sale yet.

 

They're doin' me a solid by waiting until Fast X is in the rear view mirror. 👍