Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I don't care if you take my word for it or not, but yes, I think certain movies such as TG2 would have 30% of their WW gross cut off if people know/knew it would be on "free" streaming in 45 days.  

And if certain movies like TG2 went to streaming for free 7-days after, their boxoffice gross would increase by 200%. I got the proof but I won't give it to you.

Edited June 5, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[EmpireCity]

Top Gun: Maverick will lose its premium screens next week, but I can guarantee you right now that every single film booker in North America is planning on keeping nearly every screen of TG2 and not reducing their showtimes by much if anything.  

 

Downton Abbey 2, The Bad Guys, Bob's Burgers and others are the ones that are going to suffer this week, not TG2.  The poor chaps from Universal are going to get slaughtered on their holdover films.  

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The movies that have destroyed on a giant WW level had no pre-announced streaming plan and have had the longest exclusive theatrical window.

Yeah, because pre-announced streaming plans for theatrical releases wasn't a thing before like 2021, when we were still being affected by a worldwide pandemic? 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I can't imagine the 45 day window isn't impacting late legs of big movies. I think it's kinda silly to say otherwise.

[EmpireCity]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

And if certain movies like TG2 went to streaming for free 7-days after, their boxoffice gross would increase by 200%. I got the proof but I won't give it to you.

 

Listen, there was no precedence that TG2 would make $1b+ WW and $600m+ domestic and anyone who would have predicted this would have been laughed at if the burden of "show me the evidence!!" was the standard of proof.  

 

I'm right about this like I am a whole lot of other similar things while many many have shit talked me and been hilariously wrong throughout the last couple years when it comes to day and date, shortened windows, streaming and theatrical being dead.  

 

I'll go off my experience and analysis and not worry too much that lorddemaxus thinks it is "Alex Jones" or whatever.  

[Brainbug]

In my opinion, its a very logical and simple discussion:

 

If you have an early streaming release for your movie, lets say 30 or 45 days, you will loose a part of your audience that would have gone to the theaters if it werent for the early streaming release. Thats just common sense and logical human behaviour.

 

If you want to avoid loosing that part of your audience you either dont announce when exactly it will go on to a streaming plattform or you give your movie a much longer window, so the effect will be lessened dramatically. Many people have the patience of waiting a month, but not many have it for three months or more.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I can't imagine the 45 day window isn't impacting late legs of big movies. I think it's kinda silly to say otherwise.

 

Of course it is, and the bigger the phenomenon of a movie, the more impact it would have.  The Batman alone had a good $50m+ cut off its gross WW and that was with them not announcing the streaming until late.  

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

In my opinion, its a very logical and simple discussion:

 

If you have an early streaming release for your movie, lets say 30 or 45 days, you will loose a part of your audience that would have gone to the theaters if it werent for the early streaming release. Thats just common sense and logical human behaviour.

 

If you want to avoid loosing that part of your audience you either dont announce when exactly it will go on to a streaming plattform or you give your movie a much longer window, so the effect will be lessened dramatically. Many people have the patience of waiting a month, but not many have it for three months or more.

 

Absolutely, and with a movie like TG2 I am saying it would have lost $300m in this scenario because less people watching it means far less word of mouth and far less of a chance of being a worldwide phenomenon.  If Paramount would have said a month before TG2 came out that it would be on Paramount+ on July 9th, there is no way it becomes a $1b+ grosser.  I have a hard time believing it reaches $800m in that scenario.  

[The Dark Rock]

Yes, think the 45 days or something similar should impact the box office. Many will think it is going to stream very soon so maybe we should wait and watch it for free at home. While something like after 3-4 months is quite a long period. 

[YM!]

Tbf is Paramount+ even big enough to cause leg damage like if it were Disney+/HBO Max, I can get the argument (looking at The Batman and Encanto as clear examples) but those were had their dates publicized in advance but in the case of Maverick, I think if they kept mum for the first 30-40 days after release on release strategy  I don’t think it’s legs would completely collapse and more likely than not gross would be the same, give or take like 5-10%. Yes theatrical is still the obvious goldmine but the two could go hand and hand. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by YourMother

[wildphantom]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

In my opinion, its a very logical and simple discussion:

 

If you have an early streaming release for your movie, lets say 30 or 45 days, you will loose a part of your audience that would have gone to the theaters if it werent for the early streaming release. Thats just common sense and logical human behaviour.

 

If you want to avoid loosing that part of your audience you either dont announce when exactly it will go on to a streaming plattform or you give your movie a much longer window, so the effect will be lessened dramatically. Many people have the patience of waiting a month, but not many have it for three months or more.

yep. Let alone those that want to go back another time or two. There’s not even an argument as to why it’s a good thing. 45 days is hilarious for a major movie. 
 

Batman and MoM left money on the table for absolutely nothing. WB and D+ are not losing or gaining any subs if those movies appear another month down the line. Plus how much are they giving up on PVOD rental/physical/digital retail when they’re just throwing it all out there for nothing. 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, wildphantom said:

yep. Let alone those that want to go back another time or two. There’s not even an argument as to why it’s a good thing. 45 days is hilarious for a major movie. 
 

Batman and MoM left money on the table for absolutely nothing. WB and D+ are not losing or gaining any subs if those movies appear another month down the line. Plus how much are they giving up on PVOD rental/physical/digital retail when they’re just throwing it all out there for nothing. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I can't imagine the 45 day window isn't impacting late legs of big movies. I think it's kinda silly to say otherwise.

Sure, but not a 30% (I got my math wrong before and EmpireCity's 800 to 1100 guess is actually a 37.5% increase) . I mean let's just take Sonic 2 as an example. It's current DOM gross (assuming DOM decrease is also 30%, which btw would probably be an underestimate) would be 244 mil. Movie right now made 149 mil by its third week. What kind of trajectory would you predict for the movie to make that much by the end of this weekend? Even if we assume its current drops were halfed after its 3rd weekend, the movie would get to barely over 200 mil, a single digit percentage difference.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Sure, but not a 30% (I got my math wrong before and EmpireCity's 800 to 1100 guess is actually a 37.5% increase) . I mean let's just take Sonic 2 as an example. It's current DOM gross (assuming DOM decrease is also 30%, which btw would probably be an underestimate) would be 244 mil. Movie right now made 149 mil by its third week. What kind of trajectory would you predict for the movie to make that much by the end of this weekend? Even if we assume its current drops were halfed after its 3rd weekend, the movie would get to barely over 200 mil, a single digit percentage difference.

 

Not every movie is going to be impacted the same and I have said multiple times (and you ignored) that it really affects the mega blockbusters.  

[SupermanLego]

4 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

yep. Let alone those that want to go back another time or two. There’s not even an argument as to why it’s a good thing. 45 days is hilarious for a major movie. 
 

Batman and MoM left money on the table for absolutely nothing. WB and D+ are not losing or gaining any subs if those movies appear another month down the line. Plus how much are they giving up on PVOD rental/physical/digital retail when they’re just throwing it all out there for nothing. 

Exactly Batmans DOM literally halted once it hit streaming......couldn't even pass 370.

[EmpireCity]

I've seen Dune being used as the case study that day and date or 45 day window announced before wouldn't really hurt because "hey look, it made $400m worldwide!"

 

Yeah, no shit, but if it wasn't on HBOMax day and date and has a 90 day or 120 day minimum and plays theatrically up to the Oscars, then it likely does closer to $550m - $600m WW.  

 

It got fucked because of piracy, the "free" release on HBOMax and the short window on the back end.  It's the proof that day and date and pre-announced 45 day windows take a massive amount out of certain films, not the exhonoration.  

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

I've seen Dune being used as the case study that day and date or 45 day window announced before wouldn't really hurt because "hey look, it made $400m worldwide!"

 

Yeah, no shit, but if it wasn't on HBOMax day and date and has a 90 day or 120 day minimum and plays theatrically up to the Oscars, then it likely does closer to $550m - $600m WW.  

 

It got fucked because of piracy, the "free" release on HBOMax and the short window on the back end.  It's the proof that day and date and pre-announced 45 day windows take a massive amount out of certain films, not the exhonoration.  

This is not proof. The movie had great drops throughout its run. Proof would be the movie falling off a cliff.

[IronJimbo]

I mean its common sense to think that it's going to negatively impact the gross. The amount lost though seems difficult to predict and I've not seen enough to take any of these numbers seriously. 

 

Perhaps studios know they're going to lose box office but they don't care as more people subscribe to their shitty streaming service?

[EmpireCity]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

This is not proof. The movie had great drops throughout its run. Proof would be the movie falling off a cliff.

 

Fine, then use The Batman as your example.  That lost out on $50m-$70m in WW gross the second it was announced on streaming at 47 days or whatever.  Now imagine if it was pre-announced as that.  The impact would have easily been $100m+

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I've seen Dune being used as the case study that day and date or 45 day window announced before wouldn't really hurt because "hey look, it made $400m worldwide!"

 

Yeah, no shit, but if it wasn't on HBOMax day and date and has a 90 day or 120 day minimum and plays theatrically up to the Oscars, then it likely does closer to $550m - $600m WW.  

 

It got fucked because of piracy, the "free" release on HBOMax and the short window on the back end.  It's the proof that day and date and pre-announced 45 day windows take a massive amount out of certain films, not the exhonoration.  

I feel there’s a difference in day and date release and a 45 day window on gross and legs.