el sid Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum (school holidays in every state but too nice weather): New Releases: War for the Planet of the Apes: 57.5k (released in 614 theaters, very good reviews – better than for #2) - that number would be ca. on par with the Dunkirk actual number last Thursday. But I don't have much hope that the film will do better than IndustriousAngel estimated on Tuesday (250k) and IMO it could open even lower. The reservations looked terrible at the theaters where I looked at but maybe WOM will help or it's more of a walk up film. The Emoji Movie: 3k evening only, the afternoon seemed to be much better (475, several very bad and two mediocre reviews) Alibi.com: 4k (305, mediocre reviews) How could I forget it: Grießnockerlaffäre: 24.5k - a very decent start in only 150 theaters mostly in the South, the next book adaption in the series of crime novels with local color of Rita Falk Die göttliche Ordnung: 3.5k (100, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10) Holdovers:DM 3: 14.5k evening only (actuals last Thursday 80k whole day, 22.5k evening only) - looks like it will have another good hold Dunkirk: 33k (51k) - that number would be ok but it was the only film which was massively overestimated last Thursday Valerian: 24k (40k) - pretty ok again Baby Driver: 14k (20k) - good WOM kicking in? Das Pubertier: 12k (15.5k estimated) Wish Upon: 3k (7k) The Party: 2.5k (6k) Edited August 3, 2017 by el sid 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 First trend is up at insidekino: #1/#2 DM3 250k #1/#2 Planet of the Apes 250k #3 Emoji 175k #4 Ostwind 3 150k #5 Dunkirk 125k #6 Valerian 120k #7 Grießnockerlaffäre 100k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, George Parr said: First trend is up at insidekino: #1/#2 DM3 250k #1/#2 Planet of the Apes 250k #3 Emoji 175k #4 Ostwind 3 150k #5 Dunkirk 125k #6 Valerian 120k #7 Grießnockerlaffäre 100k Baby? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Baby? Not mentioned yet. The first trend usually just reports the top movies, plus some smaller starts. The following trends on Saturday and Sunday should list more movies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 Better drops than feared and with the wide selection of new releases (last weekend and this) it's possible that we may see 7 >100k movies! drops for holdovers with Fri estimates: DM 3: -22% (really good against Emoji) Ostwind 3: -34% (not as bad as expected) Dunkirk: -37% (more frontloaded than ostwind 3? give me a break, hope that number goes up) Valerian: -30% (again, very good hold, excellent WOM it seems or a poorely marketed opening) I doubt if Grießnockerlaffäre will really hit 100k, that would be a fantastic PTA, bur the franchise is obviously very alive in its 4th installment! (Saw it yesterday, ok movie and it doesn't slide into self-spoof territory as I feared after parts 2 and 3 got rather sillier at times). Planet of the Apes 3 will have problems to reach 1mil total, despite good reviews - maybe the market is too crowded at the moment, or it is (like Dunkirk) a bit too serious or depressing for a summer release. And Emoji doing a 175k OW - not bad at all, after the poisonous buzz and reviews it got I thought more like 100k, so a positive surprise (from the theaters POV) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 hour ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Baby? Seems in for a 40%+ drop, not good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Baby? Yes, you have to be patient till tomorrow . But the estimates yesterday were - which is not always the case - pretty close to the actuals so I guess Baby Driver is no exception. Plus the weather is also predicted to become worse than said a few days before so I hope the hold is better than -40%. The "worst" film reported in the first trend has 100k admissions so BD will probably come in under 100k admissions but that's all we have so far. Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):New Releases:Apes 3: 45k - still better than I fearedThe Emoji Movie: 35kGrießnockerlaffäre: 22k Alibi.com: 5.5k Die göttliche Ordnung: 3.2kHoldovers:DM 3: 50k (actuals last Thursday 80k)Ostwind 3: 35k (76k) - the poor evening number yesterday (not even 2k admissions) was already no good signValerian: 25k (40k) Edited August 4, 2017 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Seems in for a 40%+ drop, not good Germany has been upsetting me this Summer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 5 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Germany has been upsetting me this Summer Too much summer this summer (You're not the only one...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 6 hours ago, el sid said: Yes, you have to be patient till tomorrow . But the estimates yesterday were - which is not always the case - pretty close to the actuals so I guess Baby Driver is no exception. Plus the weather is also predicted to become worse than said a few days before so I hope the hold is better than -40%. The "worst" film reported in the first trend has 100k admissions so BD will probably come in under 100k admissions but that's all we have so far. Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):New Releases:Apes 3: 45k - still better than I fearedThe Emoji Movie: 35kGrießnockerlaffäre: 22k Alibi.com: 5.5k Die göttliche Ordnung: 3.2kHoldovers:DM 3: 50k (actuals last Thursday 80k)Ostwind 3: 35k (76k) - the poor evening number yesterday (not even 2k admissions) was already no good signValerian: 25k (40k) Pirates please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, John Marston said: Pirates please We would if we could. No indications so far. Maybe it will be mentioned in the second trend tomorrow if it stays around 20-25k admissions. Some big theater chains have canceled the film by now but in most it still gets one show/day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 In the whole of Austria, there's exactly 5 theaters left where PotC5 is played, so the run here is practically ended. (Austria has worse multipliers than Germany as a rule, probably thanks to more seats/capita) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 2nd trend is up: #1 DM3 240k #2 Planet of the Apes 225k #3 Emoji 175k #4 Ostwind 3 125k #5 Dunkirk 125k #6 Valerian 125k #7 Grießnockerlaffäre 100k #8 Das Pubertier 65k #9 Baby Driver 60k #10 Spiderman 50k POTC wasn't mentioned, will have to wait until after the weekend to see how it did 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 5, 2017 Author Share Posted August 5, 2017 (edited) Saturday estimates - down down down is the motto #1: DM3 - 240k (-25%) #2: PotA3 - 225k (1mil total looking difficult, Apes2 opened to 400k) #3: Emoji - 175k #4/5/6: 125k each for Dunkirk (-37%), Ostwind3 (-45%) and Valerian (-27%) #7: Grießnockerl - 100k #8: Pubertier - 65k (-13%) #9: BabyDriver - 60k (-35%) #10: SM:H - 50k (-51%) Alibi.com opens to about 50k including some previews Edited August 5, 2017 by IndustriousAngel 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Valerian, the only movie that is up against the first Trend That's great. Is Germany the only market where this movie has good WOM? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 5, 2017 Author Share Posted August 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Aristis said: Valerian, the only movie that is up against the first Trend That's great. Is Germany the only market where this movie has good WOM? Yep. might happen that it stays on #4 despite three strong new releases! Still a disappointing total (Fifth Element was >3mil total - ok, that was another time and the SciFi / summer blockbuster market was not as saturated as today, but still ...). I rather don't understand why wom isn't as good elsewhere, I really liked it (8/10), saw it twice and think it's perfect summer popcorn stuff, but then I'm a SciFi geek and loved the comics so what do I know ... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marveldcfox Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Yep. might happen that it stays on #4 despite three strong new releases! Still a disappointing total (Fifth Element was >3mil total - ok, that was another time and the SciFi / summer blockbuster market was not as saturated as today, but still ...). I rather don't understand why wom isn't as good elsewhere, I really liked it (8/10), saw it twice and think it's perfect summer popcorn stuff, but then I'm a SciFi geek and loved the comics so what do I know ... people are idiots. They are a bunch of sheeps who blindly follow what is being made to believe! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 (edited) Most releases down with the 3rd Trend... DM3 225k (-30%) Apes3 225 (stable, which is a good sign!) Emoji 135k Ostwind3 115k (-49%) Valerian 115k (-33%) Dunkirk 105k (-47%) Grießnockerlaffäre 100k Pubertier 60k (-20%) Baby Driver 60k (-35%/-51%) SM:H 50k (-51%) Alibi.com 50k Weather was predicted to be worse today but it seems it'll be rather good... Edited August 6, 2017 by Aristis 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 6, 2017 Author Share Posted August 6, 2017 wow, that's bad for most releases ... and still we might see 7 100+ results thanks to Grießnockerl staying on the 100k goal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Any suggestion how to translate Grießnockerlaffäre? Those german titles are killing me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...