IndustriousAngel Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 and here are first weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1: It - 175k (-40%) #2: BR - 125k (-30%) #3: Snowman - 110k (incl. previews, prob. 100k fpr the weekend) #4: Geostorm - 80k (also incl. previews) #5: Cars3 - 65k (-24%) remember that BR was way overestimated last Friday - might come in lower this time again. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): Holdovers: It: 20.200 (actuals last Thursday were 45k) Blade Runner: 19.150 (30k) Kingsman 2: 7k (13k) So the three films are chronically overestimated in the estimates, annoying. BR with the best hold but as mentioned, it could lose some power over the weekend, seems to be a Thursday and Friday film, I don't know why. New Releases: The Snowman: 14.100 Geostorm: 10.5k – unsurprisingly a bit up from estimates probably thanks to walk ups The Square (only 100 theaters, good reviews): 4k → 27.5k OW predicted in the first trend Borg/McEnroe: 1.200 → 25 OW predicted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 (edited) The second trend (better for almost every movie): #1 It 175k (-40%) #2 The Snowman 125k #3 BR 110k (-30%) #4 Geostorm 85k #5 Cars 2 65k (-26%) #6 Kingsman 2 55k (-33%) #7 AA 32.5k (-35%) #8 Ninjago 30k (-35%) #9 The Square 30k #10 Victoria & Abdul 25k (-13%) #11 MLP 25k (-33%) #12 Captain Underpants 25k (stays flat, +2.5%) #13 Borg/McEnroe 25k Edited October 21, 2017 by el sid 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 well, that should put Snowman firmly over 100k for the 4day-weekend, at least something. And yes, for whatever reason, BR seems to be a Thruesday film. Maybe the audience is significantly older than for your usual SciFi actioner, which would explain the lower weekend share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 (edited) The Monday update looks again a little bit better for most movies: It 170k/2.845M The Snowman 125k/135k Blade Runner 117.5k/685k Geostorm 100k/105k Cars 3 100k/970k Kingsman 2 60k/925k Lego 45k/610k My Little Pony 37.5k/210k AA 32.5k/205k The Square 32.5k/35k Victoria & Abdul 30k/280k Captain Underpants 25k/55k High Society 22.5k/560k Unter deutschen Betten 22.5k/135k Happy Family 20k/495k Edited October 23, 2017 by el sid 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 It 170.103 701 243 2.856.873 27.004.428 -42 4 2 The Snowman 125.593 439 286 134.817 1.197.090 - 1 3 Blade Runner 2049 118.439 677 175 684.164 7.687.910 -24 3 4 Geostorm 100.693 440 229 103.976 1.066.073 - 1 5 Cars 3 99.906 675 148 970.403 7.440.712 +14 4 6 Kingsman 2 61.011 448 136 923.724 8.561.855 -25 5 7 The Lego Ninjago Movie 44.584 614 73 610.458 4.417.682 -4 5 8 My Little Pony 38.207 560 68 210.511 1.398.152 +2 3 9 American Assassin 33.181 339 98 126.638 1.012.651 -34 2 10 The Square 33.070 104 318 35.907 316.627 - 1 11 Victoria & Abdul 30.290 311 97 279.776 2.310.493 +5 4 12 Captain Underpants 26.260 454 58 56.689 406.435 +8 2 13 High Society 21.824 319 68 560.479 4.565.323 -16 6 14 Unter deutschen Betten 21.784 383 57 134.190 1.118.364 -10 3 15 Happy Family 19.280 278 69 496.023 3.454.642 +30 9 16 The Circle 18.649 208 90 489.281 4.056.569 -3 7 17 Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch … 17.351 340 51 268.080 1.683.641 +43 7 18 Happy End 16.680 98 170 45.771 362.941 -9 2 19 Rock My Heart 15.372 366 42 142.781 1.010.725 +2 4 20 Bullyparade 11.992 224 54 1.883.068 15.191.503 -14 10 A lot of increases for holdovers, but the openers were too soft to make it an excellent weekend. It had the hardest drop and while it may still enjoy some nice helloween days, it will be at a disadvantage next weekend because of the big opener. Next weekend: Fack Ju Göhte 3 may not make critics howl with joy but theaters are preparing for a monster opening, and while 2mil for the weekend are never easy to reach, 1,5mil are the absolute bottom of expectations for the teen comedy. Jigsaw is timed for helloween but, same as It, there will be a considerable shortage of screens so the release date might not turn out as clever as it seemed. (Not only are screens at a premium, but I'd guess Jigsaw and FJG audiences are extremely overlapping). 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Sounds like sales for FjG3 are finally picking up. Presales had been a bit lackluster, but the same had been true for the last one as well. It isn't really a franchise that counts all that much on presales, or even stuff like midnight previews. Regardless of what happens, there will finally be really really big numbers to follow again. Even if the opening would "disappoint", it would still be decisively larger than any opening of the recent past. Well, at least since TFA and FjG2. Looking back at 2015, wow what a year that was in terms of opening weekends. TFA with 2.14m, FjG2 with 2.115m, Spectre 1.68m, Fifty Shades of Grey 1.35m, FF7 1.33m, and finally Mockingjay 2 with 1.14m. Six movies opening above 1m admisions, two even above 2m. Comparing that to the recent past: 2013 had three above 1m, 2014 had two, 2016 barely one, and 2017 so far only has one as well. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 Friday estimates from insidekino.de: #1: FJG3 - 1.6mil admissions #2: Jigsaw - 110k #3: It - 80k (-55%) #4: Snowman - 70k (-45%) #5: BR2049 - 65k (-45%) 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 FJG3 below the second film, which was expected, but it's still a monster and maybe it will increase over the weekend. Also solid for Jigsaw. The holdovers are obviously dying, but that's what happens when you have a mega opener. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/25/2017 at 7:38 PM, George Parr said: Sounds like sales for FjG3 are finally picking up. Presales had been a bit lackluster, but the same had been true for the last one as well. It isn't really a franchise that counts all that much on presales, or even stuff like midnight previews. Regardless of what happens, there will finally be really really big numbers to follow again. Even if the opening would "disappoint", it would still be decisively larger than any opening of the recent past. Well, at least since TFA and FjG2. Looking back at 2015, wow what a year that was in terms of opening weekends. TFA with 2.14m, FjG2 with 2.115m, Spectre 1.68m, Fifty Shades of Grey 1.35m, FF7 1.33m, and finally Mockingjay 2 with 1.14m. Six movies opening above 1m admisions, two even above 2m. Comparing that to the recent past: 2013 had three above 1m, 2014 had two, 2016 barely one, and 2017 so far only has one as well. 2015's awesome was roughly on par with 2001, when 3 movies in that year passed 10m admission 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Saturday estimates: #1: FJG3: 1.575 million admissions #2: Jigsaw: 125k #3: IT: 80k #4: Snowman: 70k #5: BR2049: 60k 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 I think that's really good for Jigsaw, considering what it's up against! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 (edited) The website wasn‘t available for me in the last two days. Damn. These were the Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film). A really long weekend including Wednesday has begun, so there wasn‘t much pressure on the Thursday.Fack ju Göhte 3 (released in 808(!) theaters, and no, critics do not howl with joy and the score is a little bit under the last two films so let‘s see if WOM is also worse; FJG 2 had 403k admissions on its opening day, FJG counted 871.911 moviegoers OW, FJG2 had 2.115.200 fans OW): 280k – so remarkable under part II but as mentioned above, the very long weekend may cause that people prefer other days than the opening dayJigsaw (355, #2-4 had very similar admissions and made ca. 7.5M US$, then the numbers decreased but Saw 3D followed the worldwide trend and made again 11M US$ and had 180k/800k admissions): 20k – not bad. I wonder how frontloaded it is but in the few theaters where I looked, the reservations were quite stable over the next days. The Little Vampire 3D: (291, mixed reviews): 2.850 Maudie (75, mostly good reviews): 3.150 no numbers so far for God‘s Own Country (ca. 30 theaters, good and very good reviews) Holdovers: It: 11k (actuals last Thursday 20k) BR: 10.5k (19k) The Snowman: 10k (14k) Ok holds given the large competition and also the lose of cinema halls because FJG3 captured almost all. By the way I noticed that PotC5 is still playing in a few theaters and also had some reservations . And the rest of the second trend (including Sunday as usual, not the long weekend till Wednesday): Cars 3: 50k -50% Geostorm: 42.5k -58% The Little Vampire 3D: 40k (up from 27.5k) Kingsman 2: 30k -51% Maudie: 25k Edited October 28, 2017 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 The final trend (better for almost all movies): #1 FJG3 1.6M #2 Jigsaw 130k #3 It 85k #4 The Snowman 80k #5 BR 60k #6 Cars 3 60k #7 Geostorm 50k #8 Der kleine Vampir 45k #9 Kingsman2 30k #10 Ninjago 27.5k #11 The Square 25k #12 Maudie 25k 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) Sunday seems to have been excellent, 1.725 mil admissions are reported for FJG3 and most other releases went up from estimates, too. And with strong weekdays and Thor3 opening tomorrow, theaters are bound to stay packed - finally a relief after the horrible summer! edit: Austria had excellent numbers, too - FJG3 seems to have scored the biggest opening day ever with >66k admissions on Thursday (including midnight shows) Edited October 30, 2017 by IndustriousAngel 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Fack Ju Göhte starts at #1 with 1.725.872 admissions > best start of the year by quiet a margin > best start in the month of October > 3rd best opening weekend ever for a german movie (Traumschiff Surprise 2.164.909, FJG2 2.155.200) > people in the inside.kino forum are pointing out that it‘s in fact backloaded compared to FJG2, tomorrow we have a national holiday and today a lot of people use this day as a bridge day. One of the top 10 biggest opening weeks is possible. I swear, if this movie ends up being the most successful movie of the year..... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, Giesi said: Fack Ju Göhte starts at #1 with 1.725.872 admissions > best start of the year by quiet a margin > best start in the month of October > 3rd best opening weekend ever for a german movie (Traumschiff Surprise 2.164.909, FJG2 2.155.200) > people in the inside.kino forum are pointing out that it‘s in fact backloaded compared to FJG2, tomorrow we have a national holiday and today a lot of people use this day as a bridge day. One of the top 10 biggest opening weeks is possible. I swear, if this movie ends up being the most successful movie of the year..... One the one hand, im glad that this movie proves theres still life left in the german box office. Otoh, i dislike this series and hope, that SW8 can top it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 51 minutes ago, Giesi said: Fack Ju Göhte starts at #1 with 1.725.872 admissions > best start of the year by quiet a margin > best start in the month of October > 3rd best opening weekend ever for a german movie (Traumschiff Surprise 2.164.909, FJG2 2.155.200) > people in the inside.kino forum are pointing out that it‘s in fact backloaded compared to FJG2, tomorrow we have a national holiday and today a lot of people use this day as a bridge day. One of the top 10 biggest opening weeks is possible. I swear, if this movie ends up being the most successful movie of the year..... and we have 31/10 and 1/11 holidays to come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Fack Ju Göhte 3 1.725.872 808 2.136 1.725.872 15.402.670 - 1 2 Jigsaw 137.252 355 387 137.252 1.254.366 - 1 3 It 90.514 609 149 2.993.245 28.274.142 -47 5 4 The Snowman 84.481 442 191 257.071 2.246.919 -33 2 5 Cars 3 77.059 662 116 1.078.196 8.212.124 -23 5 6 Blade Runner 2049 66.650 479 139 798.903 8.941.462 -44 4 7 Geostorm 53.148 441 121 186.982 1.874.829 -47 2 8 Der kleine Vampir 50.702 294 172 50.702 344.468 - 1 9 Kingsmen 2 31.374 328 96 972.896 9.018.088 -49 6 10 The Lego Ninjago Movie 30.774 525 59 658.583 4.745.347 -31 6 11 The Square 28.579 108 265 79.828 689.223 -14 2 12 My Little Pony 26.922 541 50 250.104 1.655.122 -30 4 13 Maudie 19.510 80 244 31.367 225.167 - 1 14 Victoria & Abdul 18.089 254 71 314.586 2.575.982 -40 5 15 Happy Family 18.056 257 70 523.031 3.630.757 -6 10 16 Captain Underpants 17.980 454 40 86.074 598.853 -32 3 17 Mathilde 13.007 88 148 13.007 142.221 - 1 18 Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch … 12.546 273 46 290.066 1.814.784 -28 8 19 Django - Ein Leben für die Musik 12.477 86 145 15.567 120.914 - 1 20 Die Unsichtbaren - Wir wollen leben 11.082 54 205 16.313 124.962 - 1 Fantastic weekend, with this opening FJG3 should be on ist way to safely more than 6mil admissions! Not that bad for Jigsaw either, considering the competition. Next weekend: Thor3 is already in theaters and is doing ok, the first ones managed 1,1 and 1,4 mil admissions, maybe the 3rd one can cross 1,5 (Germany likes comedy stuff so this should be doing fine but of course it's up against a monster in the same demo ...). Other releases are short on screens … 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 FJG3 stands at 2.175mio admissions after 5 days, so around 450k adm on Monday. The midweek record (Monday-Wednesday) of SW7 (over 1,27mio adm) could be in danger. Even though SW8 is in a good position to bring the record back into the family with 25.12. / 26.12. on Monday/Tuesday this year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...