George Parr Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The weather is certainly interesting right now. Storm-like winds in the south, a ton of rain in the west, snow in the north, risk of floods. Apparently that's supposed to change for the weekend, but if it stays that way it isn't going to help. Bad weather is good for theaters, but not this kind of bad weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 (edited) Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Coco 154.157 620 249 392.229 3.247.471 -22 2 2 Paddington 2 108.269 763 142 591.468 4.044.300 -13 3 3 Mord on the Orient Express 83.778 704 119 1.037.782 9.165.046 -20 5 4 Fack Ju Göhte 3 75.449 662 114 5.770.778 50.391.862 -31 7 5 Daddy's Home 2 60.208 334 180 75.415 591.542 - 1 6 The Star 49.354 364 136 60.037 394.261 - 1 7 Justice League 40.675 500 81 590.101 6.199.588 -43 4 8 The Mountain Between Us 37.004 266 139 37.634 331.458 - 1 9 Bad Moms 2 35.042 449 78 732.189 6.253.988 -30 5 10 Aus dem Nichts 30.007 248 121 202.870 1.725.262 -33 3 11 Thor 3 26.483 297 89 1.435.378 15.778.198 -32 6 12 Happy Death Day 23.645 313 76 325.852 2.724.054 -41 4 13 Burg Schreckenstein 2 22.888 424 54 27.113 176.787 - 1 14 Ayla 22.645 44 515 22.645 216.760 - 1 15 Flatliners 20.461 310 66 85.315 672.727 -43 2 16 Girls Trip 19.642 288 68 79.670 660.608 -41 2 17 Augsburger Puppenkiste: Als der Weihnachtsmann … 14.720 423 35 28.051 162.516 +36 2 18 Madame 14.669 108 136 44.084 356.251 -19 2 19 Hexe Lilli rettet Weihnachten 12.418 528 24 229.616 1.482.060 -21 5 20 Aile Arasinda 10.176 59 172 10.176 98.849 - 1 Depressing weekend … let's look forward! Next weekend: With big opener Star Wars 8, there's no question that business should be a little livelier next weekend - but how high can it go? It will be hard to live up to expectations, but in the end, SW8 should be the most successful 2017 release, it needs 6mil admissions for that goal and that should be easy. As to the opening - midnights at my theater are well booked (but only one sellout) as are the evening shows on Thursday … afternoon not so much. Frankly it doesn't look like a 2mil+ opener to me but that isn't necessary with holidays on the horizon. Few people expect it to hit SW7 numbers (9mil admissions) but 7-7,5mil would be a nice number, too, and that's where I think it will land. Edited December 12, 2017 by IndustriousAngel 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I wanted to watch SW Friday or Saturday but I won't pay 15€ Will see it on Tuesday for 10€. I hope I will not witness the slow death of German BO and anybody will have the will to change something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Aristis said: I wanted to watch SW Friday or Saturday but I won't pay 15€ Will see it on Tuesday for 10€. I hope I will not witness the slow death of German BO and anybody will have the will to change something. I think you're not the only one - they never learn ... me, I don't know if I'll watch it on the big screen, felt a bit shortchanged after Ep7 (I liked Rogue One better). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Sadly we'll probably not get estimates today, but early numbers seem to indicate something like 25%-drop for OD. So I'll say it should be above 1,6M admissions, anything below would be very disappointing... Should become the 2nd biggest OW in gross with at least €18M (anything below €11,50 average TP for the WE would be a big surprise, could approach €12,00...) 1 € 25.345.223 15 Star Wars VII 2 € 17.733.509 15 Fack Ju Göhte 2 (local) 3 € 16.666.356 01 Harry Potter 1 4 € 16.636.145 12 007 - Skyfall € 18.502.953 incl. Previews 5 € 16.590.492 15 007 - Spectre € 18.614.747 incl. Previews 6 € 16.500.000 05 Harry Potter 4 Estimate, 5 day € 18.497.906 7 € 16.175.918 02 Harry Potter 2 8 € 15.402.670 17 Fack Ju Göhte 3 (local) 9 € 14.940.428 11 Harry Potter 7-2 € 18.557.983 in 5 days 10 € 14.918.968 02 LOTR 2 € 18.932.340 in 5 days http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekordBO.htm In december those movies starting are often leggy, so 1,6M would probably lead to 6M+. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 (edited) OD looks to be down by 25-30% (in admission) compared to SW 7. That's what Hype can do, when it's just not there. Edited December 15, 2017 by Poseidon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, Poseidon said: OD looks to be down by 25-30% (in admission) compared to SW 7. That's what Hype can do, when it's just not there. That's a decent drop, if it will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 hours ago, Poseidon said: OD looks to be down by 25-30% (in admission) compared to SW 7. That's what Hype can do, when it's just not there. less should end up around down 18% in $lc and 20% in admits 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 That is about the expected drop ... 6mil total however would be a serious disapppointment, 7mil should happen with holidays and (hopefully) good quality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 First trend is up at insidekino: #1 TLJ (duh) 1.75m (with a huge deal of uncertainty) #2 Ferdinand 100k #3 Coco 100k #4 Paddington 2 70k #5 Murder on the Orient Express 60k #6 FjG3 55k (up to a 5.85m total now) Exchange rates also work in favour of TLJ for once. Unlike with the Pound, the Euro is actually up against the Dollar compared to 2015. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Rth Ragnarok said: less should end up around down 18% in $lc and 20% in admits Someone at insidekino said OD was just over 400k adm., so this must haven been too low, then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 (edited) Yes, the Thursday estimates were not available and I didn't want to do too much speculation but the South-West-reports (also) showed close to 5/6 of the admissions of Star Wars 7. And that were the Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):The bigger new releases:Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 420k/6.024M US$ (released in 814 theaters, mostly good and very good reviews, SW 7 had 560k admissions OD but Mark_G from insidekino.de says if the actual trend holds it would be a minus of only 7% in dollars compared to SW 7 thanks to exchange rates)Ferdinand: 7k (603, quite good reviews)The holdovers (indeed good holds despite SW 8): Coco: 6.7k (actuals last Thursday 9.5k)Murder on the Orient Express: 7k (9.5k)FJG 3: 6k (8k) Edited December 15, 2017 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 (edited) Because there were no Thursday estimates for two weeks, these are the Friday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:SW 8: 414k – so rather flat compared to yesterday which would be quite good Murder on the Orient Express: 20.5k (nice) FJG 3: 15.5k Ferdinand: 4.5k (evening only) Bad Moms 2: 8.5k Daddy‘s Home 2: 8.5k The Mountain Between Us: 7.5K Aus dem Nichts: 5.5k JL: 2.5k Other reports are rather inconsistent for SW 8 but the two other bigger area reports also showed a quite good Friday for SW 8 with a little increase by 3% respectively 15% compared to yesterday. Edited December 15, 2017 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 5 hours ago, el sid said: Because there were no Thursday estimates for two weeks, these are the Friday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:SW 8: 414k – so rather flat compared to yesterday which would be quite good Murder on the Orient Express: 20.5k (nice) FJG 3: 15.5k Ferdinand: 4.5k (evening only) Bad Moms 2: 8.5k Daddy‘s Home 2: 8.5k The Mountain Between Us: 7.5K Aus dem Nichts: 5.5k JL: 2.5k Other reports are rather inconsistent for SW 8 but the two other bigger area reports also showed a quite good Friday for SW 8 with a little increase by 3% respectively 15% compared to yesterday. Fri is loking to be similar drop TFA had over thu , 350k admits 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Saturday update: everything remains nearly the same, TLJ down 25k to 1,725M admissions, battle of the biggest OW‘s of year is gonna be close 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 (edited) 2nd trend is now up as well, with a slight decrease for the weekend: #1 TLJ 1.725m #2 Coco 100k #3 Ferdinand 100k #4 Paddington 2 70k #5 Murder on the Orient Express 55k #6 FjG3 50k #7 Daddy's Home 2 40k edit: a bit too slow Edited December 16, 2017 by George Parr 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Looks like FjG3 will end up coming ahead in terms of admissions, as TLJ drops in the 3rd trend: #1 TLJ 1.625m #2 Coco 105k #3 Ferdinand 100k #4 Paddington 2 77.5k #5 Murder on the Orient Express 57.5k #6 FjG3 50k #7 Daddy's Home 2 40k 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Just now, George Parr said: Looks like FjG3 will end up coming ahead in terms of admissions, as TLJ drops in the 3rd trend: #1 TLJ 1.625m #2 Coco 105k #3 Ferdinand 100k #4 Paddington 2 77.5k #5 Murder on the Orient Express 57.5k #6 FjG3 50k #7 Daddy's Home 2 40k I am so fucking ashamed of my country. We cant built an airport, we cant form a government and now a terrible comedy will come ahead of The Last Jedi. Holiday legs to the rescue! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Well, that's what I feared would happen... According to Rth SW8 had a similiar Fr drop to SW7 - SW7 WE multipler would get it to 1,6M. Shouln't further drop now... Still, with fucking high TP this will probably get to €19,5M and $23M, so down about 15% in $. With holidays this will get past FJG3, I'm sure - it's not like FJG3 had great legs. The Hobbit movies got more than 4,5x their OW. 4xOW would bring this to about 6,5M. Coco -32% Paddington -28% Orient Express -32% FJG3 -33% 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aristis said: Well, that's what I feared would happen... According to Rth SW8 had a similiar Fr drop to SW7 - SW7 WE multipler would get it to 1,6M. Shouln't further drop now... Yeah the pattern for huge blockbuster seems to: initial numbers: really good 2nd trend: low drop/stagnation 3nd trend: big drop (50-100k) early numbers: 25k-50k over the last trend, still under the very first numbers so I would say 1,650-1,675M admissions for Ep8, bigger drop than I expected (based on the prequel trilogy) but the total is gonna be bigger than Ep2 and Ep3, easily Edited December 17, 2017 by Giesi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...