thajdikt Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 3 hours ago, Flip said: Forecast for June is in from insidekino: 1.19m admits for Bad Boys and 2.52m admits for Inside Out 2. The bad Boys number is strong but I feel if Inside out can't pass 3m it's kind of disappointing Surely Euros would have a negative effect on moviegoing overall especially in Germany? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 4 Author Share Posted June 4 9 hours ago, thajdikt said: Surely Euros would have a negative effect on moviegoing overall especially in Germany? I think that's already included in the forecast but yes, especially releases targeted at 15+ males and the overall market will suffer badly. Family releases might still do well (depending on weather) and often there are some arthouse releases or movies targeted at females that do surprisingly well - not everyone is loving football, after all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 4 Author Share Posted June 4 Germany's Top15 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Garfield 213.678 682 313 799.761 6.906.100 +117 4 2 IF 143.245 592 242 401.374 3.389.584 +124 3 3 Furiosa 80.984 644 126 223.000 2.657.235 -7 2 4 Planet of the Apes 4 76.691 571 134 511.253 5.898.563 +24 4 5 The Fall Guy 70.045 550 127 565.167 5.949.398 +45 5 6 Chantal im Märchenland 51.675 493 105 2.616.542 26.311.859 +64 10 7 Tarot 38.288 356 108 149.301 1.563.755 +23 3 8 Kung Fu Panda 4 31.216 416 75 1.740.164 15.895.910 +140 12 9 Challengers 28.548 336 85 323.758 3.269.338 +32 6 10 Back to Black 24.036 385 62 572.351 5.945.658 +37 8 11 Max und die Wilde 7 22.822 462 49 100.779 771.428 +199 5 12 Golda 21.453 104 206 25.403 245.805 - 1 13 Late Night with the Devil 16.268 213 76 23.078 211.559 - 1 14 May December 15.713 138 114 23.338 198.011 - 1 15 Sterben 12.764 250 51 163.356 1.779.068 +4 6 Thanks to enduring rains, the weekend went a lot better than the last one but still far from good. Family movies had extreme increases, and most other releases at least good increases with the sad exception of Furiosa which managed to drop from its already underwhelming OW. None of the openers made it into the Top10. In Austria, once more, most releases a bit better - Garfield >30k admissions (for the 3day WE), total is already >130k. The Fall Guy increased to a little over 10k and is on its way to well over 100k total, also much stronger than in Germany. Next weekend: Bad Boys 4 will be the big opener; the last one was one of the last movies before the Covid lockdowns and made it to 1,8mil total back in '20 - with the current state of the German BO, this seems impossible to reach even under normal circumstances; add football into the mix and 1mil total seem like the sensible goal. Garfield should remain the nr1 choice for families but with weather turning sunnier once more, expect steep drops. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 First trend has Bad Boys doing 300k for the 5-day opening weekend 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leoh Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 8 minutes ago, Flip said: First trend has Bad Boys doing 300k for the 5-day opening weekend wow, this is one of the biggest opening weekends of the year in Germany, isn’t it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 5 hours ago, leoh said: wow, this is one of the biggest opening weekends of the year in Germany, isn’t it? 4th biggest of 2024 according to MarkG ... but with the current state of the Germany BO, this is saying little indeed. But at least one million total should be safe with this OW. Otherwise, steep drops as expected; Garfield estimated at 100k, IF and Furiosa a bit over 50k. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 So a quite good start for BB4, that's nice and needed. I say "quite good" because I noticed that with ~ 300k admissions it's ca. in line with expectations. And I slightly hope that the numbers of the family films will increase. Today it's mixed to good but it's predicted that the next two days become pretty bad in most regions weather-wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 (edited) The second trend from insidekino.de: No changes for the Top 3 #4 Furiosa 37.5k #5 Planet of the Apes 30k #6 The Fall Guy 25k ... The Watchers 22.5k King's Land 22.5k The weather is too good. Now they say that the next two weeks become pretty frustrating for summer (colder and not much sunshine) but today and partly tomorrow will be good so people will use these days. Edited June 8 by el sid 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 final estimates stable for BadBoys but lower for holdovers again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Germany's Top14 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bad Boys 4 254.255 607 419 297.610 3.377.980 - 1 2 Garfield 61.597 711 87 874.468 7.541.552 -71 5 3 IF 37.734 618 61 447.921 3.773.960 -74 4 4 Furiosa 31.475 636 49 275.496 3.251.321 -61 3 5 Planet of the Apes 4 29.729 494 60 552.769 6.356.682 -61 5 6 The Fall Guy 22.389 494 45 597.731 6.284.118 -68 6 7 The Watchers 19.282 366 53 20.217 208.988 - 1 8 Chantal im Märchenland 17.306 454 38 2.639.662 26.541.862 -67 11 9 King's Land 15.273 208 73 25.447 215.702 - 1 10 Tarot 15.108 330 46 170.846 1.786.722 -61 4 11 Challengers 10.893 286 38 341.855 3.451.086 -62 7 12 Golda 10.723 123 87 43.975 426.828 -50 2 13 Kung Fu Panda 4 9.018 393 23 1.751.078 15.985.587 -71 13 14 Back to Black 8.773 340 26 588.285 6.036.233 -64 9 Horrible drops across the chart but Bad Boys 4 opened within expectations and saved the weekend a bit (the only one with a decent PTA, still, what a drop from Bad Boys 3 which opened to about 440k …) In Austria, similar numbers with BB4 opening a bit (but not much, 38k after Sunday) better. Next weekend: The big opener will be Inside Out 2. The first on made it to about 3,5mil admissions total but with the current state of the Germany BO, 3mil total seem impossible - still, with weather a bit rainy in many regions for most of the time, we're in for a fine weekend at least for family films and a strong new #1! For many other releases, football will be the big competition starting this weekend … BO will enter hibernation mode in the evenings. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 FSS prediction is 560k, full opening is 650k, and Mark is predicting 3.5m final admits, which would be great. Hopefully the weekend is higher though, because that would actually be a drop of 80k admits from IO’s OW 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youngstar Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 41 minutes ago, Flip said: FSS prediction is 560k, full opening is 650k, and Mark is predicting 3.5m final admits, which would be great. Hopefully the weekend is higher though, because that would actually be a drop of 80k admits from IO’s OW I feel like a drop of 80k admits is acceptable when you consider that the EM starts this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youngstar Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 With ~90k admissions InsideOut 2 has the biggest opening day of the year, when exluding holidays and the second best with those included. 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youngstar Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 The first trend is 700k admissions for Inside Out 2. It would normally be 800k - 1.1M, but due to the weather/football it's lower. Bad Boys 4 is 175k (225k-250k without the factors above) Nothing else above 50k. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 On 6/13/2024 at 1:28 AM, Flip said: FSS prediction is 560k, full opening is 650k, and Mark is predicting 3.5m final admits, which would be great. Hopefully the weekend is higher though, because that would actually be a drop of 80k admits from IO’s OW IO didn't make 640k FSS, it had a 4-day OW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 that's a super opening, wouldn't have thought it possible after all the disappointments (including family releases like Garfield) - a nice surprise! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 (edited) We won't get an accurate second trend today from insidekino.de due to the football EM - Mark_G thinks that would be pure guesswork. #1 Inside Out 2 is still listed with 700k admissions today #2 BB4 had in the first trend 175k admissions (without the EM it would have been ~ 225-250k according to insidekino.de/542.5k total admissions (with 175k admissions on this weekend). Mark_G also says that the family films saw nice jumps yesterday compared to their admission numbers on Thursday and that the other films stayed more or less flat compared to Thursday. Tomorrow we will get a trend. Edited June 15 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Curious to see IO2's run here in the coming weeks since normally theaters are deader than Olaf Scholz' popularity levels when a major football tournament is going on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 15 Author Share Posted June 15 25 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Curious to see IO2's run here in the coming weeks since normally theaters are deader than Olaf Scholz' popularity levels when a major football tournament is going on. I'd say family releases depend more on favourable weather ... IO2 is of course targeting teenagers and YA rather than the usual family demo so it's really difficult to predict. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youngstar Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 The Sunday trend from insidekino.de: 1. Inside Out 2 825k (mark sees this as the worst case, up to 900k is possible depending on the weather) 2. Bad Boys - Ride or Die 150k 3. Garfield 55k 4. IF 25k 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...