BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Final estimates ... not so good:

#1 SW8 725k (-55%)

#2 Jumanji 210k

#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 190k

#4 PP3 175k (the way it's behaving I begin to doubt 1mil total)

#5 Ferdinand 72,5k (-29%)

#6 Paddington 2 62,5k (-22%)

 

Merry christmas to everyone here!

Edited December 24, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[Taruseth]

40 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Final estimates ... not so good:

#1 SW8 725k (-55%)

#2 Jumanji 210k

#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 190k

#4 PP3 175k (the way it's behaving I begin to doubt 1mil total)

#5 Ferdinand 65k (-26%)

#6 Paddington 2 55k (-32%)

 

Merry christmas to everyone here!

I hoped SW8 would increase a bit from the other estimates, but seems like yesterday was not that strong.

 

Based on the first Thursday estimate I thought PP3 would open with at least 230k, but if I remember correctly that day was way overestimated.

 

Are those the estimates from Insidekino? Because they have Ferdinand and Paddington a bit higher.

 

 

Merry Christmas

[IndustriousAngel]

6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Are those the estimates from Insidekino? Because they have Ferdinand and Paddington a bit higher.

 

 

Merry Christmas

You're right, I've edited the correct numbers in ... Paddington seems to have good legs, should see a good holiday run.

[Taruseth]

What do you see TLJ finishing with?

 

and I noticed something really interesting at the local cinema:

Presales for

25th: 393

26th: 401 

27th: 482 (Probably the Carrie Fisher effect)

I didn't thought the 27th might be that strong.

[Rthmessiah]

Big drops Xmas eve from Sat TLJ/PP3 -80,Jum - 60

[Taruseth]

21 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said:

Big drops Xmas eve from Sat TLJ/PP3 -80,Jum - 60

 

Those holds are awful, but isn't that typical in germany, holds normally are a lot worse than in the us on Christmas Eve, as far as I know.

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2017 by Taruseth

[Brainbug]

In my cinema, there was 1 (!) showing of TLJ yesterday. Christmas Eve is one of the worst moviegoing days all year, so the drop isnt surprising. This week will have insane weekday business though.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Brainbug

[IndustriousAngel]

my cinema's last show started at 3pm so no big surprise here

[Brainbug]

FWIW, this week in my cinema has already sold more tickets for TLJ than the OW+Monday+Tuesday of last week (Reserved seating comparisons. Walk-Ups were solid, but not as strong as TFA last week).

[George Parr]

Mark G. expects a slight increase for TLJ to ~750k this weekend, while everything but PP3 goes up by quite a big (granted, that's easier to do with lower numbers). But more importantly, the chart lists TLJ with 4.275m if that would happen. Subtract the 750k and compare it to the number after last weekend (~2.8m) and the current weekdays would be around 700k or so. Obviously no comparison to the almost 1.3m TFA had during its second set of weekdays, but then again, that movie didn't have the 25th among those days, which is still a weak box office day. If I'm not mistaken, Rogue One had 625k or so during the weekdays, but that was also without the disadvantage of the 25th.

 

I'm really not sure if the 6.5m he expects as final total is all that likely. Even if this weekend would end up like this, TLJ would still be slightly behind AOTC and ROTS at the same time of their runs. The following weekdays could move it past those two, but still, the difference would be rather slim, and the holidays would be over. With those two only reaching 5.8m and 5.6m respectively, 6.5m might be a bit too high.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

Mark G. expects a slight increase for TLJ to ~750k this weekend, while everything but PP3 goes up by quite a big (granted, that's easier to do with lower numbers). But more importantly, the chart lists TLJ with 4.275m if that would happen. Subtract the 750k and compare it to the number after last weekend (~2.8m) and the current weekdays would be around 700k or so. Obviously no comparison to the almost 1.3m TFA had during its second set of weekdays, but then again, that movie didn't have the 25th among those days, which is still a weak box office day. If I'm not mistaken, Rogue One had 625k or so during the weekdays, but that was also without the disadvantage of the 25th.

 

I'm really not sure if the 6.5m he expects as final total is all that likely. Even if this weekend would end up like this, TLJ would still be slightly behind AOTC and ROTS at the same time of their runs. The following weekdays could move it past those two, but still, the difference would be rather slim, and the holidays would be over. With those two only reaching 5.8m and 5.6m respectively, 6.5m might be a bit too high.

 

I swear, if TLJ ends up with fewer admissions than Fack Ju Göhte 3....i might just finally give up on my country... it doesnt look like it, but if we cant even built an airport, such a scenario appears not to be impossible

[Taruseth]

According to Insidekino the second week had 1,41m, would mean 0,69m on the three weekdays and a total of 3,53m admissions sold.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Star Wars 8	720.998	816	884	2.837.996	33.810.398	-56	2
2	Jumanji	197.999	523	379	220.335	2.283.402	-	1
3	Pitch Perfect 3	178.561	494	361	178.561	1.511.581	-	1
4	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	159.852	590	271	194.362	1.640.808	-	1
5	Ferdinand	75.259	659	114	207.264	1.510.226	-26	2
6	Coco	66.078	598	110	620.599	4.951.240	-39	4
7	Paddington 2	60.040	671	89	788.958	5.324.122	-26	5
8	Murder on the Orient Express	33.320	455	73	1.184.187	10.387.799	-44	7
9	The Star	32.340	428	76	153.489	978.430	-8	3
10	Fack Ju Göhte 3	27.764	452	61	5.901.662	51.423.921	-45	9
11	Ayla	18.001	66	273	89.257	812.081	-35	3
12	Augsburger Puppenkiste: Weihnachtsmann …	15.372	281	55	69.382	387.083	-16	4
13	Daddy's Home 2	11.844	305	39	159.987	1.241.749	-71	3
14	Aus dem Nichts	10.767	158	68	264.286	2.210.651	-55	5
15	Bad Moms 2	8.740	180	49	786.251	6.706.088	-64	7
16	Burg Schreckenstein 2	8.570	335	26	61.144	385.213	-47	3
17	The Mountain Between Us	8.298	225	37	94.160	794.723	-68	3
18	Ôtez-moi d'un doute	6.921	74	94	6.921	55.706	-	1
19	Hexe Lilli rettet Weihnachten	6.593	266	25	252.995	1.606.029	+456	7
20	Un Beau Soleil Intérieur	5.860	77	76	27.737	217.045	-57	2

 

Due to holiday alignment, it was a rather slow weekend which should be countered by strong weekdays. Family stuff, especially for the very young, were the only releases with decent drops or even increases. Among openers, Jumanji surprised me while Pitch Perfect 3 and domestic comedy Dieses bescheuerte Herz stayed behind expectations. Star Wars 8 was the clear winner but with less than 3mil total after two weekends, it remains to be seen if it can cross 7mil total - MarkG from insidekino.de is predicting 6,5mil.

Next weekend: It's the rare weekend that has not a single wide release, but this is such a weekend. Obviously, holdovers should see excellent holds, some even increases. SW8 will stay on top, and #2 will probably be close between Jumanji and DbH, while PP3 was heavily frontloaded (but should still manage #4 once more). Of course, weekend numbers are only half the story over the holidays so for a final asessment we'll have to wait until after the first Jan weekend.

[George Parr]

The next set of weekdays might actually play out a bit better than last year due to more states still being on holiday. The effect probably won't be that much bigger due to the states with the biggest populations not having all that much of a different holiday schedule, but it still might be noticeable.

 

The following states have holiday throughout the entire first week of January (using German names because I am lazy ):

BW, Bayern, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, Niedersachsen, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein, Thüringen, Saarland

Hessen even has another week of holidays after that

 

MV+Sachsen-Anhalt have Monday+Tuesday off, Berlin+Brandenburg+Sachsen, Monday off

 

So all 16 states are on holiday on Monday, 13 on Tuesday and 11 the rest of the week

 

In comparison, 2016:

BW, Bayern, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, Niedersachsen, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein

 

Berlin and Brandenburg Monday+Tuesday off, MV+Sachsen+Sachsen-Anhalt Monday off, Thüringen+Saarland holidays over

 

14 states had holidays still running on Monday, 11 states had holidays on Tuesday, and 9 states had holidays the rest of the week

[el sid]

According to insidekino.de theses are the really long Christmas weekend numbers (which means from Thursday, the 21th till including Wednesday, the 27th, so 7 days/the whole week):
,
#1 Star Wars 8: 1.41M/3.53M (so 690k from Mo-We)
#2 Jumanji: 480k (280k Mo-We)
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 400 (240k Mo-We)
#4 PP3: 315k (135k Mo-We)
#5 Ferdinand: 160k (85k Mo-We)
#6 Coco: 145k (80k Mo-We)
#7 Paddington 2: 120k (60k Mo-We)
#8 Murder on the Orient Express: 82.5k (50k Mo-We)
#9 FJG 3: 57.5k (30k Mo-We)
#10 The Star: 50k (20k Mo-We)

[Giesi]

The DBH underperformance is real. I really have no desire to watch this movie, but from trailers alone it looked like 3M+, maybe even 4M admissions. Is the Elyas fatigue finally setting in?

[Brainbug]

Just now, Giesi said:

The DBH underperformance is real. I really have no desire to watch this movie, but from trailers alone it looked like 3M+, maybe even 4M admissions. Is the Elyas fatigue finally setting in?

 

I expected 3M minimum. Looked like something German audiences ate up. Maybe your right, he had like 3 movies this year? He seems like the german Samuel L. Jackson, appearing everywhere.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

I expected 3M minimum. Looked like something German audiences ate up. Maybe your right, he had like 3 movies this year? He seems like the german Samuel L. Jackson, appearing everywhere.

Might develop some legs.

 

Can anyone explain me, why The Star! has the biggest auditorium for next weekdays for the morning show.

And SW doesn't for the evening the main shows 16:10 and 20:00 got changed from a 582 to a I think 150 auditorium. That auditorium has nothing after 15:00. Probably they change SW back into that.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

Can anyone explain me, why The Star! has the biggest auditorium for next weekdays for the morning show.

And SW doesn't for the evening the main shows 16:10 and 20:00 got changed from a 582 to a I think 150 auditorium. That auditorium has nothing after 15:00. Probably they change SW back into that.

 

Morning/Matinee shows favour kid- and family-orientated movies. The Star beeing an animated movie fits that. Doesnt change that fact that its obviously dumb to not give SW the biggest auditoriums at any time of the day. 

[George Parr]

First trend is up, and it looks pretty good:

 

#1 TLJ 900k

#2 Jumanji 300k

#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 275k

#4 PP3 200k

#5 Ferdinand 140k

#6 Coco 115k

#7 Paddington 2 85k

#8 Murder on the Orient Express 60k

#9 FjG3 40k

#10 Loving Vincent 25k