BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top18 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Migration	295.793	661	447	661.572	6.176.988	+102	2
2	Wonka	286.438	749	382	1.457.028	13.669.436	+36	4
3	Aquaman 2	259.271	615	422	647.772	7.641.050	+49	2
4	Wish	197.127	639	308	1.295.009	11.104.016	+67	5
5	Hunger Games Prequel	83.227	430	194	1.411.640	15.751.904	+80	7
6	Girl You Know It's True	77.561	522	149	172.927	1.797.546	+141	2
7	Napoleon	73.664	547	135	977.682	11.107.862	+79	6
8	Perfect Days	41.069	117	351	95.227	914.200	+107	2
9	Saw 10	31.627	323	98	371.706	3.884.733	+32	5
10	791km	26.880	351	77	102.373	967.602	+145	3
11	Complètement cramé	17.576	147	120	39.803	360.317	+132	2
12	Wow! Nachricht aus dem All	14.304	445	32	51.774	398.517	+79	3
13	Vem är du, Mamma Mu?	13.715	388	35	15.837	113.594	-	1
14	Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl	13.554	190	71	390.932	2.741.376	+55	10
15	Joan Baez I Am A Noise	13.088	80	164	13.501	124.211	-	1
16	Checker Tobi 2	13.051	241	54	1.062.381	7.852.863	+101	13
17	The Haunting of the Queen Mary	12.163	179	68	15.755	154.974	-	1
18	Anatomie d'une chute	11.898	137	87	227.895	2.324.598	+151	9

An ok weekend with good increases, the gamut of attractive releases makes up for the fact that there's still no blockbuster in sight. (Wonka might come close to 2,5mil total; however I find it strange that it had one of the lowest increases). Aquaman 2 is recovering from the soft opening; 1mil+ will happen and something like 1,3mil total seem like the goal now. The same goes for Migration which should have another strong week and might come close to 2mil in the end, as should Wish. Farther down the chart, Wim Wenders' Perfect Days had a nice PTA; with good WOM and reviews this might become a leggy run.

In Austria, similar results (with less stellar increases thanks to the 3-day vs. 4-day counting, however, Austria's Thursdays get counted in the end, too)

Next weekend: Two semiwide openers, both interesting: Waititi's Next Goal Wins and Miyazakis The Boy and The Heron. Top3 will be impossible for both but they seem like possible crowdpleasers which could see a long run. Also opening: The 2nd part of Atatürk 1881-1919; this should have a very strong PTA again.

 

And a bit of a look back on 2023:

There were some silver lines on the dark horizon - Barbenheimer seemed to put movie-going back on the chart; domestic crime comedy Rehragout-Rendezvous cleared 1,5mil total in Germany and 300k in Austria, the strongest of the series (no small feat for the 9th installment); but overall, it has been a piss-poor year for Germany's movie theaters, and Austria - while consistently performing stronger - was not much better. While a bit of the decline might be thanks to the writer's strike, there's no doubt that even without the strike, this would have been the worst year in this millenium, Covid-years excluded. Of course, the general state of the economy had an influence; when inflation rates hit households, entertainment is going to suffer, especially if it's expensive entertainment. In this regard, there's still distributors who force theaters into 3D, something I continue to not understand …

Here's hoping for an uptick in 2024! Happy New Year everyone!

[titanic2187]

It is clear German doesn’t really like Wonka as compared to other European counterparts. Increasing that “little” is meh.

[IndustriousAngel]

21 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is clear German doesn’t really like Wonka as compared to other European counterparts. Increasing that “little” is meh.

I think it's doing fine, the possible 2,5mil total is a lot more than I thought it could make. The book is not that well-known in German-speaking countries.

[el sid]

Indeed, I didn't know that Wonka has a book template .

The Boy and the Heron gets around 400 copies in Germany, a solid, medium sized number. Mark_G expects around 160k admissions including Sunday (90k true weekend).

Next Goal Wins gets 319 copies and Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts 35k admissions including Sunday (25k true weekend).

[IndustriousAngel]

early estimates for Germany's last holiday weekend:

#1: Migration - 300k (+1%, wow, going up)

#2: Wonka - 250k (-14%, still looking good for 2,5mil)

#3: Aquaman2 - 200k (-23%, good)

#4: Wish - 175k (-11%)

#5 and best opener: Boy&Heron with 200k incl previews, excellent (should be about 130k for the weekend)

#6: HungerPrequel - 70k (-16%)

 

If those estimates come true, fine holds for family releases and everything else is also holding up well; Heron's opening is even better than I expected - a nice overall weekend!

 

Still, compared to the corresponding 2018 weekend with the same weekday constellation, you can't help but be disappointed by the current market ... back then, we had 8 releases >100k admissions, the leader (SW8) at 466k 😭

 

Edited January 5 by IndustriousAngel

[Youngstar]

6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

early estimates for Germany's last holiday weekend:

#1: Migration - 300k (+1%, wow, going up)

#2: Wonka - 250k (-14%, still looking good for 2,5mil)

#3: Aquaman2 - 200k (-23%, good)

#4: Wish - 175k (-11%)

#5 and best opener: Boy&Heron with 200k incl previews, excellent (should be about 130k for the weekend)

#6: HungerPrequel - 70k (-16%)

 

If those estimates come true, fine holds for family releases and everything else is also holding up well; Heron's opening is even better than I expected - a nice overall weekend!

 

Still, compared to the corresponding 2018 weekend with the same weekday constellation, you can't help but be disappointed by the current market ... back then, we had 8 releases >100k admissions, the leader (SW8) at 466k 😭

 

I thought Marks comment that the Top 4 movies are doing better than in the USA interesting:

 

Quote

Pikanterweise laufen die Top 4-Filme bei uns (im Verhältnis) deutlich besser als in den USA . Wenn das grobe 1:10 Verhältnis der Besucherzahlen gelten würde, dann müsste am Sonntag in den USA Teich bei $135 Mio., Wonka bei $216 Mio., Aquaman bei $112 Mio. und Wish bei $173 Mio. stehen.

translation:
Ironically, the top 4 films are doing significantly better here (relatively) than in the USA. If the rough 1:10 ratio of admissions were to apply, then on Sunday [...] Migration should be at $135 million, Wonka at $216 million, Aquaman at $112 million and Wish at $173 million.

 

Does anyone know why that is?

 

 

[el sid]

The very nice second trend from insidekino.de:

#1 Migration 325k
#2 Wonka 290k
#3 Aquaman 2 200k
#4 Wish 190k
#5 The Boy and the Heron 220k (including previews)
#6 Hunger Games 72.5k
#7 Napoleon 55k
#8 Girl You Know It's True 52.5k
#9 Perfect Days 45k
#10 Next Goal Wins 50k (including previews)
#11 Priscilla 40k
#12 Saw X 30k

[IndustriousAngel]

finale estimates a bit lower for Wonka but higher for Aquaman; Boy&Heron is also climbin higher the longer the weekend lasts - a satisfying results. Only Next Goal Wins seems to stay below the radar.

[el sid]

The Monday update from insidekino.de:

#1 Migration 305k/1.175M total admissions
#2 Wonka 255k/1.887.5M
#3 Aquaman 2 217.5k/995k
#4 Wish 175k/1.600M
#5 The Boy and the Heron 215k
#6 Hunger Games 67.5k/1.525M
#7 Napoleon 57.5k/1.075M
#8 Girl You Know It's True 57.5k/265k
#9 Perfect Days 47.5k/170k
...
Next Goal Wins 50k
Priscilla 40k

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Migration	305.809	681	449	1.178.812	10.799.709	+3	3
2	Wonka	253.918	771	329	1.887.376	17.618.113	-11	5
3	Aquaman 2	216.520	631	343	995.284	11.613.482	-16	3
4	Wish	174.587	628	278	1.601.742	13.634.576	-11	6
5	The Boy and the Heron	140.156	398	352	214.125	2.222.311	-	1
6	The Hunger Games Prequel	67.889	396	171	1.524.112	17.003.349	-18	8
7	Napoleon	57.353	488	118	1.074.982	12.210.905	-22	7
8	Girl You Know It's True	56.666	563	101	263.580	2.718.349	-27	3
9	Perfect Days	46.948	144	326	171.298	1.648.778	+14	3
10	Next Goal Wins	39.807	322	124	50.693	440.146	-	1
11	Priscilla	36.967	169	219	42.609	410.862	-	1
12	Saw 10	30.243	299	101	414.378	4.336.470	-4	6
-	MET: Nabucco	23.271	185	126	23.271	702.261	-	1
13	Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl	20.069	187	107	421.247	2.917.936	+48	11
14	Checker Tobi 2	16.861	209	81	1.090.656	8.053.479	+29	14
15	791km	16.274	289	56	133.009	1.260.701	-39	4
16	Anatomie d'une chute	15.754	156	101	252.616	2.580.651	+33	10
17	Joan Baez I Am A Noise	13.842	93	149	39.061	357.447	+6	2
18	Wow! Nachricht aus dem All	13.433	338	40	76.452	583.466	-6	4
19	Atatürk 1881-1919 2	13.230	91	145	13.230	144.788	-	1
20	Complètement cramé!	13.032	138	94	62.430	567.283	-26	3

A pretty good weekend - most releases with good holds or even increases. Among openers, Boy & Heron was stronger than I expected, extremely good number for a Miyazaki movie. Next Goal Wins stayed behind my expectations and barely made the Top10 while Priscilla opened way higher than I expected and came close in admissions despite only having about half the screens of Next Goal … I Was disappointed by the 2nd Atatürk movie; part one had a super PTA, this is an extremely steep drop - must have generated lousy WOM.

Holdovers are looking good, Wonka should get to 2,5mil total and Migration and Wish to 2mil. Aquaman 2, while dropping from the about 2mil total of ist predecessor, is still no flop but doing nicely, maybe coming close to 1,5mil total - let's keep in mind that Germany has always been a difficult market for superheroes. The Hunger Games Prequel is also doing better than I expected, and Napoleon has finally reached 1mil. Perfect Days has gone up from the already good OW, might get to 500k total - good for such an arthouse release!

In Austria, the weekend was even better, nearly all releases 20-40% ahead of Germany - Wonka and Migration should both reach the Golden Ticket für 300k admissions; even Wish has a small chance to reach this blockbuster status.

Next weekend: With holidays over, be ready for steep drops. The only big opener will be The Beekeeper; a six-digit-OW would be nice (but presales are low). Also opening on a samller scale: The Pod Generation; presales even lower.

[Issac Newton]

Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom (Austria) ~ €1.96M Total (€375K WKend)

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom (Austria) ~ €1.96M Total (€375K WKend)

wow, that means it's about 75% ahead of Germany ... while the Austrian market has been stronger throughout 2023 (I'd guess, overall in the 25% range), it's still rare for a Hollywood release to have such different results!

[IndustriousAngel]

early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:

#1: Beekeper - 170k incl previews (better than I thought)

#2: Migration - 140k (-54%)

#3: Wonka - 110k (-57%)

#4: Boy&Heron - 100k (-29%, excellent)

#5: Aquaman2 - 85k (-61%)

 

as expected, a bloodbath once holidays are over, but Beekeeper is a positive surprise! And that would be an astonishing hold for Boy & Heron, more like an arthouse release.

[el sid]

The second trend from insidekino.de - some improvements:

#1 The Beekeeper 175k
#2 Migration 140k
#3 Wonka 125k
#4 The Boy and the Heron 100k
#5 Aquaman 2 92.5k
#6 Wish 75k
#7 Hunger Games 40k
#8 Napoleon 35k
#9 Girl You Know It's True 32.5k
#10 Perfect Days 30k
#11 Priscilla 27.5k

[el sid]

The final trend from insidekino.de - again many films increased:

#1 Migration 165k
#2 The Beekeeper 177.5k (with previews)
#3 Wonka 145k
#4 Aquaman 2 110k
#5 The Boy and the Heron 95k
#6 Wish 90k
#7 Hunger Games 40k
#8 Napoleon 35k
#9 Perfect Days 35k
#10 Girl You Know It's True 32.5k
#11 Priscilla 27.5k

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

The final trend from insidekino.de - again many films increased:

#1 Migration 165k
#2 The Beekeeper 177.5k (with previews)
#3 Wonka 145k
#4 Aquaman 2 110k
#5 The Boy and the Heron 95k
#6 Wish 90k
#7 Hunger Games 40k
#8 Napoleon 35k
#9 Perfect Days 35k
#10 Girl You Know It's True 32.5k
#11 Priscilla 27.5k

Where do you see Heron going to end??

[Flip]

hopefully Migration can hit 2m admits. The Boy and The Heron I could see making 800k admits possibly if this week's hold was any indication of interest 

[el sid]

The Monday update from insidekino.de:

#1 The Beekeeper 180k (with previews but still probably #1)
#2 Migration 165k/1.370M total admissions
#3 Wonka 142.5k/2.060M
#4 Aquaman 2 107.5k/1.130M
#5 The Boy and the Heron 92.5k/347.5k
#6 Wish 90k/1.707.5M

[el sid]

23 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Where do you see Heron going to end??

Mark_G from insidekino.de thought last week that it would get ca. 550k total admissions but it had a bit better hold than expected (92.5k vs 84k) so maybe 600k?

Edited January 15 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Mark_G from insidekino.de thought last week that it would get ca. 550k total admissions but it had a bit better hold than expected (92.5k vs 84k) so maybe 600k?

with those kind of holds it might make it well past 600 ... 1mil seem out of reach but say 750k?