BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

[thajdikt]

3 hours ago, Flip said:

Forecast for June is in from insidekino: 1.19m admits for Bad Boys and 2.52m admits for Inside Out 2. 

 

The bad Boys number is strong but I feel if Inside out can't pass 3m it's kind of disappointing

Surely Euros would have a negative effect on moviegoing overall especially in Germany?

[IndustriousAngel]

9 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Surely Euros would have a negative effect on moviegoing overall especially in Germany?

I think that's already included in the forecast but yes, especially releases targeted at 15+ males and the overall market will suffer badly. Family releases might still do well (depending on weather) and often there are some arthouse releases or movies targeted at females that do surprisingly well - not everyone is loving football, after all.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top15 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Garfield	213.678	682	313	799.761	6.906.100	+117	4
2	IF	143.245	592	242	401.374	3.389.584	+124	3
3	Furiosa	80.984	644	126	223.000	2.657.235	-7	2
4	Planet of the Apes 4	76.691	571	134	511.253	5.898.563	+24	4
5	The Fall Guy	70.045	550	127	565.167	5.949.398	+45	5
6	Chantal im Märchenland	51.675	493	105	2.616.542	26.311.859	+64	10
7	Tarot	38.288	356	108	149.301	1.563.755	+23	3
8	Kung Fu Panda 4	31.216	416	75	1.740.164	15.895.910	+140	12
9	Challengers	28.548	336	85	323.758	3.269.338	+32	6
10	Back to Black	24.036	385	62	572.351	5.945.658	+37	8
11	Max und die Wilde 7	22.822	462	49	100.779	771.428	+199	5
12	Golda	21.453	104	206	25.403	245.805	-	1
13	Late Night with the Devil	16.268	213	76	23.078	211.559	-	1
14	May December	15.713	138	114	23.338	198.011	-	1
15	Sterben	12.764	250	51	163.356	1.779.068	+4	6

Thanks to enduring rains, the weekend went a lot better than the last one but still far from good. Family movies had extreme increases, and most other releases at least good increases with the sad exception of Furiosa which managed to drop from its already underwhelming OW. None of the openers made it into the Top10.

In Austria, once more, most releases a bit better - Garfield >30k admissions (for the 3day WE), total is already >130k. The Fall Guy increased to a little over 10k and is on its way to well over 100k total, also much stronger than in Germany.

Next weekend: Bad Boys 4 will be the big opener; the last one was one of the last movies before the Covid lockdowns and made it to 1,8mil total back in '20 - with the current state of the German BO, this seems impossible to reach even under normal circumstances; add football into the mix and 1mil total seem like the sensible goal. Garfield should remain the nr1 choice for families but with weather turning sunnier once more, expect steep drops.

[Flip]

First trend has Bad Boys doing 300k for the 5-day opening weekend

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, Flip said:

First trend has Bad Boys doing 300k for the 5-day opening weekend

wow, this is one of the biggest opening weekends of the year in Germany, isn’t it?

[IndustriousAngel]

5 hours ago, leoh said:

wow, this is one of the biggest opening weekends of the year in Germany, isn’t it?

4th biggest of 2024 according to MarkG ... but with the current state of the Germany BO, this is saying little indeed. But at least one million total should be safe with this OW.

Otherwise, steep drops as expected; Garfield estimated at 100k, IF and Furiosa a bit over 50k.

[el sid]

So a quite good start for BB4, that's nice and needed. I say "quite good" because I noticed that with ~ 300k admissions it's ca. in line with expectations.

 

And I slightly hope that the numbers of the family films will increase. Today it's mixed to good but it's predicted that the next two days become pretty bad in most regions weather-wise.

[el sid]

The second trend from insidekino.de: 

 

No changes for the Top 3

#4 Furiosa 37.5k

#5 Planet of the Apes 30k

#6 The Fall Guy 25k 

...

The Watchers 22.5k

King's Land 22.5k

 

The weather is too good. Now they say that the next two weeks become pretty frustrating for summer (colder and not much sunshine) but today and partly tomorrow will be good so people will use these days.

Edited June 8 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates stable for BadBoys but lower for holdovers again

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top14 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Bad Boys 4	254.255	607	419	297.610	3.377.980	-	1
2	Garfield	61.597	711	87	874.468	7.541.552	-71	5
3	IF	37.734	618	61	447.921	3.773.960	-74	4
4	Furiosa	31.475	636	49	275.496	3.251.321	-61	3
5	Planet of the Apes 4	29.729	494	60	552.769	6.356.682	-61	5
6	The Fall Guy	22.389	494	45	597.731	6.284.118	-68	6
7	The Watchers	19.282	366	53	20.217	208.988	-	1
8	Chantal im Märchenland	17.306	454	38	2.639.662	26.541.862	-67	11
9	King's Land	15.273	208	73	25.447	215.702	-	1
10	Tarot	15.108	330	46	170.846	1.786.722	-61	4
11	Challengers	10.893	286	38	341.855	3.451.086	-62	7
12	Golda	10.723	123	87	43.975	426.828	-50	2
13	Kung Fu Panda 4	9.018	393	23	1.751.078	15.985.587	-71	13
14	Back to Black	8.773	340	26	588.285	6.036.233	-64	9

Horrible drops across the chart but Bad Boys 4 opened within expectations and saved the weekend a bit (the only one with a decent PTA, still, what a drop from Bad Boys 3 which opened to about 440k …)

In Austria, similar numbers with BB4 opening a bit (but not much, 38k after Sunday) better.

Next weekend: The big opener will be Inside Out 2. The first on made it to about 3,5mil admissions total but with the current state of the Germany BO, 3mil total seem impossible - still, with weather a bit rainy in many regions for most of the time, we're in for a fine weekend  at least for family films and a strong new #1! For many other releases, football will be the big competition starting this weekend … BO will enter hibernation mode in the evenings.

[Flip]

FSS prediction is 560k, full opening is 650k, and Mark is predicting 3.5m final admits, which would be great. Hopefully the weekend is higher though, because that would actually be a drop of 80k admits from IO’s OW 

[Youngstar]

41 minutes ago, Flip said:

FSS prediction is 560k, full opening is 650k, and Mark is predicting 3.5m final admits, which would be great. Hopefully the weekend is higher though, because that would actually be a drop of 80k admits from IO’s OW 

I feel like a drop of 80k admits is acceptable when you consider that the EM starts this weekend.

[Youngstar]

With ~90k admissions InsideOut 2 has the biggest opening day of the year, when exluding holidays and the second best with those included.

[Youngstar]

The first trend is 700k admissions for Inside Out 2. It would normally be 800k - 1.1M, but due to the weather/football it's lower.

Bad Boys 4 is 175k (225k-250k without the factors above)

Nothing else above 50k.

[pepsa]

On 6/13/2024 at 1:28 AM, Flip said:

FSS prediction is 560k, full opening is 650k, and Mark is predicting 3.5m final admits, which would be great. Hopefully the weekend is higher though, because that would actually be a drop of 80k admits from IO’s OW 

IO didn't make 640k FSS, it had a 4-day OW

[IndustriousAngel]

that's a super opening, wouldn't have thought it possible after all the disappointments (including family releases like Garfield) - a nice surprise!

[el sid]

We won't get an accurate second trend today from insidekino.de due to the football EM - Mark_G thinks that would be pure guesswork. 

 

#1 Inside Out 2 is still listed with 700k admissions today 

#2 BB4 had in the first trend 175k admissions (without the EM it would have been ~ 225-250k according to insidekino.de/542.5k total admissions (with 175k admissions on this weekend).

 

Mark_G also says that the family films saw nice jumps yesterday compared to their admission numbers on Thursday and that the other films stayed more or less flat compared to Thursday. 

Tomorrow we will get a trend.

Edited June 15 by el sid

[Brainbug]

Curious to see IO2's run here in the coming weeks since normally theaters are deader than Olaf Scholz' popularity levels when a major football tournament is going on.

[IndustriousAngel]

25 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Curious to see IO2's run here in the coming weeks since normally theaters are deader than Olaf Scholz' popularity levels when a major football tournament is going on.

I'd say family releases depend more on favourable weather ... IO2 is of course targeting teenagers and YA rather than the usual family demo so it's really difficult to predict.

[Youngstar]

The Sunday trend from insidekino.de:
1. Inside Out 2 825k (mark sees this as the worst case, up to 900k is possible depending on the weather)

2. Bad Boys - Ride or Die 150k

3. Garfield 55k

4. IF 25k