BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt Film look like that (as often in the last weeks, the Thursday isn't the problem - this time it's again the sunshine...let's hope that Mark_G is too pessimistic):

The new releases:

Love, Simon (366): 10k

Meine teuflisch gute Freundin (a German fantasy comedy, released in 414 theaters): 6k → 27.5k admissions OW in the first trend

The holdovers:

JW2: 25k (actuals last Thursday 29k) - not bad at all
Ocean's 8: 21k (26.5k)

Pope Francis: 7k (7.1k)
DP2: 6.5k (8k)
Solo: 5.5k (7.2k)

Edited June 29, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

Having all movies at basically 4x the Thursday number does seem pretty pessimistic to me. Then again, the weather should be better on the weekend (it was great in many parts of the country on thursday, but it should be great all around on the weekend) and the weekdays already saw some sort of holiday effect due to over a quarter of the country having holidays, so who knows.

[James]

Any chance anything beats Infinity War for the year? On Insidekino I see IW sold about 3.32m tickets and Fantastic Beasts sold 3.47m back in 2016 so maybe that? 

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, James said:

Any chance anything beats Infinity War for the year? On Insidekino I see IW sold about 3.32m tickets and Fantastic Beasts sold 3.47m back in 2016 so maybe that? 

 

Bar a big surprise (Maybe Halloween, Grinch or Mary Poppins...?), its the only movie where id say it has a shot. But right now, i dont think FB2 can reach the first one. Buzz is very muted and - thats just anecdotical i know - whenever they showed the trailer when i was in the theater this year, there was literally no response from the audience. That was completely different back in 2016.

 

I do hope it manages it, as this market needs a big hit as soon as possible.

[George Parr]

I'd say The Incredibles 2 should also have a decent shot. The first one had 3.5m admissions, and who knows how this one will fare. It does have a pretty good opening-date at the end of September. Would be better if the 3rd of October would be closer to the weekend instead of falling on a Wednesday, but it still should allows for pretty good weekdays. October 1st is also the start of the autumn holiday in 9 states, so that should give a boost as well, even if the states with the biggest populations aren't among them.

 

Doesn't look like anything will beat Inifinity War in terms of money though.

Edited June 29, 2018 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

Incredibles2 would also be my favourite - should appeal to parents and kids alike and fun animation can really take off on the German (and Austrian) market. Keeping my fingers crossed ... as Brainbug said, the market does need a few hits.

[George Parr]

Second trend looks a bit better, for the most part:

 

#1 JW2 125k

#2 Ocean's 8 95k

#3 Love, Simon 52.5k

#4 Deadpool 2 35k

#5 Papst Franziskus 25k

#6 Solo 25k

#7Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 25k

 

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates from insidekino.de have JW2 now at 150k for the weekend - a sub 40% drop, good!

[miketheavenger]

JW2 has so far always increased quite a bit throughout the weekend. I think that's a positive sign for word-of-mouth and it shows that the movie appeals to families, too.

[IndustriousAngel]

Actuals tomorrow but it seems that with JW2 at 160k and O8 a little over 100k, we've got at least two releases with >100k admissions. A small but silver lining

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top10 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jurassic World 2	162.808	680	239	1.703.715	18.878.164	-34	4
2	Ocean's 8	103.160	657	157	362.593	3.066.323	-36	2
3	Love, Simon	41.717	366	114	72.720	473.892	-	1
4	Deadpool 2	38.891	449	87	2.087.814	18.972.867	-21	7
5	Papst Franziskus	32.579	622	52	193.246	1.510.419	-28	3
6	Solo	30.916	453	68	1.252.704	13.545.180	-37	6
7	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	30.306	414	73	34.742	244.395	-	1
8	Hereditary	15.877	246	65	76.174	665.801	-14	3
9	Luis & die Aliens	13.576	485	28	176.950	1.174.340	-58	6
10	Avengers - Infinity War	10.186	223	46	3.339.568	37.407.507	-23	10

No surprises … BO still down, only half the business of the corresponding weekend last year.

Next weekend: No big openers; How to Party With Mom should be the biggest one and even has a chance to make it to #1 as the Dinos are already in their 5th weekend …

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates for the whole country look good:
The new releases:

The First Purge (450, modest to ok reviews, overall similar to those in the USA): 52k - very good if it holds and if the weekend doesn't become too sunny (like it's unfortunately predicted)
How to Party with Mom (310, modest reviews): 4k
Liebe bringt alles ins Rollen/Tout le Monde Debout (130, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10): 2.5k
 

The holdovers:

Ocean's 8: 17k (actuals last Thursday 21k)
JW2: 17k (25k) - maybe again underestimated
DP2: 4.5k (6.5k)
Love, Simon: 6.5k (10k) - was also underestimated last week
Solo: 3.5k (5.5k)

Pope Francis: 6k (7k) - so far it was always underestimated
 

The South-West report also shows again good holds and even some increases: For O8 463 admissions (last Thursday 544), JW2 had 488 (494), Solo 115 (last week 102), DP2 152 (206) and Love, Simon 232 (180) in the selected theaters.
And for the biggest new release – The First Purge – it counted remarkable 1.059 admissions. The other two new releases look a bit meager: 144 for How to Party with Mom and 37 for Liebe bringt alles ins Rollen.

Mark_G predicts a minus for all holdovers of only 20%. The First Purge could start with 160k admissions OW and HTPWM with 50k (which is lower than I would have guessed).
44% of the federal republic have school holidays.

[IndustriousAngel]

excellent for First Purge ...

[George Parr]

First trend is up, again with quite a bit of uncertainty due to weather supposedly improving for the weekend itself (not to mention World Cup games on Friday and Saturday):

 

#1 The First Purge 150k

#2 JW2 140k (-14%)

#3 Ocean's 8 80k (-22%)

#4 Love, Simon 35k (-15% / -51% with previews)

#5 Meine teuflische gute Freundin 35k (+15% / flat with previews)

[IndustriousAngel]

rainy weather --> super drops! even if overall level of admissions is pitiable ...

[el sid]

And, a bit late, The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

The First Purge: 32.5k - far under the estimates . I don't know why so many people didn't appear after their reservations, the weather wasn't so great (in the South), also no football...
How to Party with Mom: 5k → 35k OW predicted so far, even under the already pretty low expectations
Liebe bringt alles ins Rollen: 1.450 → 15k OW
 

The holdovers look more delightful:

JW2: 23k (actuals last Thursday 25k)
Ocean's 8: 17.5k (21k)
Love, Simon: 7.6k (10k)
Meine teuflisch gute Freundin: 7.2k (6k)
 

[George Parr]

Ouch, the second trend is pretty ugly, the three movies at the top dropped, JW2 by a ton:

 

#1 The First Purge 135k

#2 JW2 100k (-38%)

#3 Ocean's 8 75k (-27%)

#4 How to party with Mom 35k

#5 Meine teuflische gute Freundin 32.5k (+8% / -6% with previews)

#6 Love, Simon 32.5k (-22% / -55% with previews)

#7 Papst Franziskus 27.5k (-16%)

#8 Deadpool 2 25k (-36%)

 

http://insidekino.de/News.htm

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, George Parr said:

Ouch, the second trend is pretty ugly, the three movies at the top dropped, JW2 by a ton:

 

#1 The First Purge 135k

#2 JW2 100k (-38%)

#3 Ocean's 8 75k (-27%)

#4 How to party with Mom 35k

#5 Meine teuflische gute Freundin 32.5k (+8% / -6% with previews)

#6 Love, Simon 32.5k (-22% / -55% with previews)

#7 Papst Franziskus 27.5k (-16%)

#8 Deadpool 2 25k (-36%)

 

http://insidekino.de/News.htm

 

So just around 500k for the Top 10, so slightly better than last weekend (480k for Top 10) and way better than that absolutely atrocious third weekend in April (286k for Top 10)

Edited July 7, 2018 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

let's just say it's not as bad as feared but pretty bad (as most of 2018)

[George Parr]

Not a whole lot of movement with the third trend:

 

JW2 up again to 115k (+15k from the last one, but still quite a bit below the first one), Meine teuflisch gute Freundin +2,5k, Papst Franziskus -2,5k, nothing else changed.