BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[George Parr]

First trend is up, and the numbers are obviously to be taken with a huge grain of salt due to the World Cup:

 

#1 Jurassic World 2 250k (-56% / -61% with previews)

#2 Deadpool 2 75k (-39.5%)

#3 Solo 65k (-50%)

#4 Papst Franziskus 55k

#5 Hereditary 27.5k

 

JW2 would stand at a total of 1.05m, which means a first week of 800k.

Edited June 15, 2018 by George Parr

[Taruseth]

5 minutes ago, George Parr said:

First trend is up, and the numbers are obviously to be taken with a huge grain of salt due to the World Cup:

 

#1 Jurassic World 2 250k (-56% / -61% with previews)

#2 Deadpool 2 75k (-39.5%)

#3 Solo 65k (-50%)

#4 Papst Franziskus 55k

#5 Hereditary 27.5k

 

JW2 would stand at a total of 1.05m, which means a first week of 800k.

That drop would be rather awful for JW2 and worse than I thought for Solo.

 

JW2: $3.5M

DP2: $0.8M

Solo: $0.8M

 

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 10k
Hereditary: 5k
Die brillante Mademoiselle Neila: 1.7k
Overboard: 1.5k -> 20k admissions OW predicted in the first trend
Just Getting Started: under 1k -> only 7.5k admissions OW

The holdovers - the Thursday by itself wouldn't be so bad:

JW 2: 45k/551k US$ (actuals last Thursday 72k)
DP 2: 13k (19k)
Solo: 11k (18k)

 

Incidentally: The WM opening match yesterday was watched by 9.48M people (51% market share), which was a bit higher than the number in 2010 were the first match started ca. at the same time of day (one hour earlier).

Edited June 15, 2018 by el sid

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, el sid said:

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 10k
Hereditary: 5k
Die brillante Mademoiselle Neila: 1.7k
Overboard: 1.5k -> 20k admissions OW predicted in the first trend
Just Getting Started: under 1k -> only 7.5k admissions OW

The holdovers - the Thursday by itself wouldn't be so bad:

JW 2: 45k/551k US$ (actuals last Thursday 72k)
DP 2: 13k (19k)
Solo: 11k (18k)

I doubt that is the true number.

Because that ticket price change would be impressive and mean, that the drop in $ will be around 60%.

[Aristis]

5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I doubt that is the true number.

Because that ticket price change would be impressive and mean, that the drop in $ will be around 60%.

It should have more 2D from now on, maybe that explains the drop?

€10,30 doesn't seem that low...

Edited June 15, 2018 by Aristis

[el sid]

Yes, that's very probably the reason. In the weekend thread of insidekino it was mentioned that 2D was across the board allowed since Thursday... 

[Brainbug]

The 2nd weekend drop was always gonna be very brutal mainly because of the WC and Germanys match in particular. JW2 could recover in the weeks ahead, since its basically the only big blockbuster playing right now - or it could be damaged even further by König Fußball. Im hoping for the former and if its only because our theaters really need a hit at this point lol.

[George Parr]

Mark G said something like the weekly top ten are behind last year by 16% at the same point in time, and with the World Cup coming up this percentage is unlikely to improve.  Heading for the worst first half of a year in at least 26 years.

 

Needless to say, 26 years ago was one of the five worst years ever:

5) 1992 105.9m admissions

4) 1986 105.2m

3) 1985 104.2m

2) 1990 102.5m

1) 1989 101.2m

 

compared to the 120 or 130m range of the last few years.

[Taruseth]

33 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Mark G said something like the weekly top ten are behind last year by 16% at the same point in time, and with the World Cup coming up this percentage is unlikely to improve.  Heading for the worst first half of a year in at least 26 years.

 

Needless to say, 26 years ago was one of the five worst years ever:

5) 1992 105.9m admissions

4) 1986 105.2m

3) 1985 104.2m

2) 1990 102.5m

1) 1989 101.2m

 

compared to the 120 or 130m range of the last few years.

What is even worse, is that there is no FJG3 or TLJ to help the last quarter. So it's unlikely that it will catch up much in the fourth quarter.

 

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

The 2nd weekend drop was always gonna be very brutal mainly because of the WC and Germanys match in particular. JW2 could recover in the weeks ahead, since its basically the only big blockbuster playing right now - or it could be damaged even further by König Fußball. Im hoping for the former and if its only because our theaters really need a hit at this point lol.

JW2 had a Wednesday start and really hot weather for most of the opening Weekend, after such a weekend JW stayed flat (increased by a few hundred admissions), so at least a drop of around 30% should have been doable (accounting for slightly worse legs and a mostly dead Sunday) and a worse Thursday evening.

But dropping more than 50%, mmmh, if it holds well next weekend, I take everything back and really just was the WC (a drop of 10% should be doable or even a flat hold)

[Giesi]

6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

But dropping more than 50%, mmmh, if it holds well next weekend, I take everything back and really just was the WC (a drop of 10% should be doable or even a flat hold)

I‘m not so sure about a flat hold for JW2, Brasil plays Friday afternoon and Germany‘s next match is set for Saturday evening. The WC is ruthless.

[Taruseth]

4 minutes ago, Giesi said:

I‘m not so sure about a flat hold for JW2, Brasil plays Friday afternoon and Germany‘s next match is set for Saturday evening. The WC is ruthless.

Sorry, thought it was Sunday evening next weekend.

[Aristis]

I still have hope that Saturday could be better than thought...

[IndustriousAngel]

Considering the dismal state of the german-speaking BO, there's a lot of traffic in this thread 😁

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Considering the dismal state of the german-speaking BO, there's a lot of traffic in this thread 😁

 

You have lots of talk when a market is driving or completely failing

[George Parr]

Just be thankful that - unlike with movies - there aren't people rooting to see a market fail

[James]

18 hours ago, Taruseth said:

What is even worse, is that there is no FJG3 or TLJ to help the last quarter. So it's unlikely that it will catch up much in the fourth quarter.

You know, I feel sad to see the overall BO decreasing, but no SW movie in Dec means Fantatic Beasts 2 might get some better holiday late legs so I will take that. I hope 40m is within reach. The first one did 36.5,

[IndustriousAngel]

2018 was never supposed to be a big year, the lineup was simply not strong enough and the World Cup on top ... but what we're witnessing at the moment - one "locked" blockbuster failing after another - is more like an implosion than a decline. Many movie theaters were already walking a very narrow financial tightrope in the past years, and a year as bad as 2018 might put an end to many of them. Let's hope the 2nd hald of the year can turn the trend ...

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday estiamtes even lower ...

[George Parr]

Sunday trend is up, and it is more in line with what I thought would happen after the Friday numbers listed on the insidekino forum. Though it's obviously anything but clear how much on an impact today will have:

 

#1 Jurassic World 2 290k

#2 Deadpool 2 67.5k

#3 Solo 60k

#4 Papst Franziskus 40k

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

Sunday trend is up, and it is more in line with what I thought would happen after the Friday numbers listed on the insidekino forum. Though it's obviously anything but clear how much on an impact today will have:

 

#1 Jurassic World 2 290k

#2 Deadpool 2 67.5k

#3 Solo 60k

#4 Papst Franziskus 40k

JW: $3.55M

DP2: $0.7M

Solo: $0.77M