XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, LPLC said: $650M in US ???? Sorry but i think this is very very unlikely. 20 minutes ago, LPLC said: Let's try 1,000,000,000 lc for NWH. So 1 Billon LC in Mexico but $650M DOM is unlikely? 1B LC is roughly the exact same as $650M DOM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: So 1 Billon LC in Mexico but $650M DOM is unlikely? 1B LC is roughly the exact same as $650M DOM. Not necessarily, watch Toy Story 4 : 1.4 Billion LC but "only" $435M in US. I don't know if you realize, but $650M in these days is really huge. See NWH above Avengers, almost at the same level as Avengers 3 ? I know there is a huge hype but Avengers 3 and NWH don't play exactly in the same category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, LPLC said: Not necessarily, watch Toy Story 4 : 1.4 Billion LC but "only" $435M in US. I don't know if you realize, but $650M in these days is really huge. See NWH above Avengers, almost at the same level as Avengers 3 ? I know there is a huge hype but Avengers 3 and NWH don't play exactly in the same category. I'm comparing 2 MCU movies though, what does a Toy Story movie have to do with that comparison? You're saying the NWH target is is 1 billion LC which would make it like the 5th biggest movie ever in Mexico right? So why would it be able to be the 5th biggest ever there but not 7th/8th highest grossing domestically? The logic doesn't make sense lol FFH = 611M LC vs $390M DOM NWH @ 1B LC would equate to $640M DOM using the same ratio Edited November 7, 2021 by VenomXXR Info 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 38 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: I'm comparing 2 MCU movies though, what does a Toy Story movie have to do with that comparison? You're saying the NWH target is is 1 billion LC which would make it like the 5th biggest movie ever in Mexico right? So why would it be able to be the 5th biggest ever there but not 7th/8th highest grossing domestically? The logic doesn't make sense lol FFH = 611M LC vs $390M DOM NWH @ 1B LC would equate to $640M DOM using the same ratio I'm sorry but it's your logic that doesn't make sense, why a movie that ends up #5 all time in mexico must also end up #5 all time US ? The two markets are unrelated and they do not work in the same way. You cannot compare two markets that are different. The same is not because a movie is 1B LC which is bound to make $650M in the US, if you want I will take another example from the MCU. Let us take Black Panther: $700M in the US and "only" 500M lc, according to your logic it should have done 1.2B lc but it was not the case. Are you just telling you that in the whole story only 7 films have exceeded $650M, so I hope with all my heart that NWH will make it, I'm just saying it's unlikely and we can no longer expect anything. something around $ 500M (a nice bump from FFH's $390M). Regarding Mexico, I expected more around $45M (900M lc) but if Charlie Jatinder says that $55M is possible then the 1B lc is achievable, that would be great and I hope the best for NWH. So yes NWH, will score very well at the box office but do not expect figures similar to AIW for example, it is a level above. Hopefully, even if it's not won either, that he could overtake the first avengers and finish 3rd at the box office of the MCU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 31 minutes ago, LPLC said: I'm sorry but it's your logic that doesn't make sense, why a movie that ends up #5 all time in mexico must also end up #5 all time US ? The two markets are unrelated and they do not work in the same way. You cannot compare two markets that are different. When you have 2 previous films in the same series, then yea you can. 1B LC for NWH equates to $640M DOM using FFH ratio or $647M DOM using SMHC ratio. The fact that the ratios are that close to equal tells me there's clearly a correlation. We will see what happens when the film comes out, but if it hits 1B LC in Mexico then it's going over The Avenger's DOM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: When you have 2 previous films in the same series, then yea you can. 1B LC for NWH equates to $640M DOM using FFH ratio or $647M DOM using SMHC ratio. The fact that the ratios are that close to equal tells me there's clearly a correlation. We will see what happens when the film comes out, but if it hits 1B LC in Mexico then it's going over The Avenger's DOM. Nah you cant. OS growth is always higher than domestic as domestic market has matured(except few european markets which are even worse). Take homecoming which grossed 334m domestic/546m while Far From home had 390/741m gross. So its never linear in growth. Its similar for Avengers movies, OS growth was much bigger despite Endgame crushing OW record by 100m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Nah you cant. OS growth is always higher than domestic as domestic market has matured(except few european markets which are even worse). Take homecoming which grossed 334m domestic/546m while Far From home had 390/741m gross. So its never linear in growth. Its similar for Avengers movies, OS growth was much bigger despite Endgame crushing OW record by 100m. Mexico is a fairly mature market, this isn't the Philippines or Malaysia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Venom is obviously correct here, how is this argument even happening 😆 1B close would translate to mid 600s DOM in terms of boost. You can escape that by postulating that NWH will have a much higher max/DOM ratio than normal for an mcu mega hit but you need to make some kind of affirmative argument for why that would be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Nah you cant. OS growth is always higher than domestic as domestic market has matured(except few european markets which are even worse). Take homecoming which grossed 334m domestic/546m while Far From home had 390/741m gross. So its never linear in growth. Its similar for Avengers movies, OS growth was much bigger despite Endgame crushing OW record by 100m. But HC -> FFH growth in Mexico vs US was linear, even if that isn't true for all overseas (for example China alone played a big part in that OS growth for FFH). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 (edited) The only thing that tickets in Mexico has increased M$10 since 2019 i.e. 20%. Dont think DOM will be +20% FFH for NWH. Best thing is to measure things by admits. 15M+ admits should be done. Edited November 8, 2021 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: The only thing that tickets in Mexico has increased M$10 since 2019 i.e. 20%. Dont think DOM will be +20% FFH for NWH. Best thing is to measure things by admits. 15M+ admits should be done. What do you expect for NWH in DOM ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 (edited) Estimates for Eternals were spot on, 115.2M lc ($5.7M). Really good holds across the board, Venom 2 went up and Dune with a mere 6% drop! BO figures look like pre-pandemic times. EDIT: Those were weekly sales! 😶 Edited November 8, 2021 by Purple Minion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, Purple Minion said: Estimates for Eternals were spot on, 115.2M lc ($5.7M). Really good holds across the board, Venom 2 went up and Dune with a mere 6% drop! BO figures look like pre-pandemic times. For some reason CANACINE is reporting full week figures 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 Oh dear. Would this be a new feature? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Didn't realized how big inflation has hit during pandemic times. Let There Be Carnage has now surpassed first Venom in lc but is running about 12% behind in admissions; No Time To Die has an incredibly high ATP as a result of it skewing to 1st tier cities and premium formats where ticket increases have been more pronounced. Eternals has opened with a higher ATP than Endgame (by nearly 15%!) which already was inflated by special increases during its first week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Purple Minion said: Oh dear. Would this be a new feature? Hopefully not. Probably a fluke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 LONG RANGE FORECAST. SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. 4-DAY OPENING. Sony has officially confirmed December 16th as opening day for the third installment of MCU's Spidey. We'll have to wait until presale begin to know if it'll hold midnight shows or rather Wednesday Night Previews. Big opening coming. Opening Weekend (4-Day): $480M / 6.5M admissions Lifetime Gross: $1,150M / 17M admissions 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: LONG RANGE FORECAST. SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. 4-DAY OPENING. Sony has officially confirmed December 16th as opening day for the third installment of MCU's Spidey. We'll have to wait until presale begin to know if it'll hold midnight shows or rather Wednesday Night Previews. Big opening coming. Opening Weekend (4-Day): $480M / 6.5M admissions Lifetime Gross: $1,150M / 17M admissions 17 mill adm is how many mill of dollars ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 minute ago, john2000 said: 17 mill adm is how many mill of dollars ? o/u $55M depending on how ER behaves 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: LONG RANGE FORECAST. SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. 4-DAY OPENING. Sony has officially confirmed December 16th as opening day for the third installment of MCU's Spidey. We'll have to wait until presale begin to know if it'll hold midnight shows or rather Wednesday Night Previews. Big opening coming. Opening Weekend (4-Day): $480M / 6.5M admissions Lifetime Gross: $1,150M / 17M admissions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...