Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Jiffy]

20 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

top gun maverick just got 5.6x legs off a very similar opening weekend

And TGM had once-in-a-generation legs for a $100m+ summer opener. I would not say it really operated as a sequel in the sense we know it given the gap between the original film and this.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Jiffy said:

And TGM had once-in-a-generation legs for a $100m+ summer opener. I would not say it really operated as a sequel in the sense we know it given the gap between the original film and this.

It's not like A2 is performing like a sequel right now is it?

[reddevil19]

Avatar 5, starring Tom Cruise, in his last role, reportedly dying doing a stunt during location filming on Mars... That will be the point cinemas close down as there will be nothing more worth showing after.

[Ronin46]

17 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

TGM was at $402M through 18 days. Avatwo will be around $420M. I’m calling it now that by the end of the 4th weekend; that gap will be total closed (TGM @ $466.8M end of 4th).

 

You currently predict 466.8M for AV2 by end of weekend 4?

[Torontofan]

I mean avatar 2 will be at a 3X multipler by sunday no? 

[upriser7]

Back in January first week this year, I wonder how many thought NWH would have poor legs after holidays based on how similar both Rogue One and NWH weekdays were in that week..total 3rd week numbers were also very similar for both Rogue One, NWH....fast forward couple of months, NWH ends up collecting more than double of what Rogue One did for rest of run ($170M vs $76M). What this tells me is NWH is a better comparison for Avatar2 legs than Rogue One as both released in post-pandemic era and both had very little competition in January which for me seems like a lot more critical factor here for legs. 

 

Jan Week1 Weekdays:

Tuesday:

NoWayHome - $5.9M

Rogue One    - $6.2M

 

Wednesday:

NoWayHome - $4.4M

Rogue One    - $4.2M

 

Thursday:

NoWayHome - $3.9M

Rogue One    - $3.9M

 

Overall 3rd Week:

NoWayHome - $78M

Rogue One    - $79M

 

[theghostofmarv]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Curious, if A2 makes more than Top Gun Marverick. What would you put that down too if not word of mouth?

Oh, if that happens then I will absolutely chalk it up to WOM. But really, if A2 beats Maverick's domestic I'll be too happy to care that I was wrong, and I'll chalk it up to the will of Eywa. 

[Ledmonkey96]

3 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

I mean avatar 2 will be at a 3X multipler by sunday no? 

Easily, it's at 320 now and only needs like 400mil to be 3x 80mil Wed-Sun should be easily surpassed

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

You currently predict 466.8M for AV2 by end of weekend 4?

 
Right around there. My main point was TGM will essentially eat up the 18M difference in 6 days. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, theghostofmarv said:

Oh, if that happens then I will absolutely chalk it up to WOM. But really, if A2 beats Maverick's domestic I'll be too happy to care that I was wrong, and I'll chalk it up to the will of Eywa. 

Then my point is if you judge WOM by money made then you have to wait, it's doing great so far. We have to see how it holds post holidays.

I think using your immediate friend group as a guage for WOM is completely misleading.

[Flamengo81]

34 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Even with the holidays I think if it manages ~4.5x multiplier for a $100m+ opener that is really good legs. You just aren't going to replicate once-in-a-generation legs with a sequel.

I think 4.5x were along the lines with the most optimistic cautious (if that is even a thing) people expectations. I myself always thought this would get aprox. half of the legs of the first one, so 4.5x to 5x although with a better opening weekend.

[Jiffy]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It's not like A2 is performing like a sequel right now is it?

Compared to the original film sure.

[Jiffy]

Final Tuesday is $24.13m you love to see it!

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Jiffy said:

Compared to the original film sure.

if TGM operated not like a sequel, then A2 definitely is too.

And it's actually pretty similar to Avatar in terms of patterns, it's just got some extra cash smacked on, honestly mostly from ticket prices.

[Jiffy]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

if TGM operated not like a sequel, then A2 definitely is too.

And it's actually pretty similar to Avatar in terms of patterns, it's just got some extra cash smacked on, honestly mostly from ticket prices.

I mean if this pulls in $50m weekend post-holidays I'd be more than happy to be wrong. I am rooting for this film to make as much money as it can.

[theghostofmarv]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Then my point is if you judge WOM by money made then you have to wait, it's doing great so far. We have to see how it holds post holidays.

I think using your immediate friend group as a guage for WOM is completely misleading.

I'm not basing it on my friend group at all. RT Verified Audience, Letterboxd, IMDb. Cinemascore, etc. are all higher for TGM. I wish they weren't, but they are. If it turns out that TWOW has 300m+ domestic left in the tank after January 3rd I will *personally* buy you a beer, and I will be very happy to do so.

[IronJimbo]

 

BLUE IS A2

RED IS Avatar

Y AXIS DOMESTIC GROSS
X AXIS DAYS SINCE RELEASE

 

not used to google sheet graphs, i need to rebuy excel

 

But my point is how it's performing similar to original Avatar so far

Edited December 28, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

BLUE IS A2

RED IS Avatar

Y AXIS DOMESTIC GROSS
X AXIS DAYS SINCE RELEASE

 

not used to google sheet graphs, i need to rebuy excel

 

But my point is how it's performing similar to original Avatar so far

 

What happens if you add in Rogue One?

[stuart360]

After the OW of both AVATAR films, A2 was 57mil ahead.

After the 4 day Christmas 2nd weekend, A2 is 54mil ahead.

 

Now i'm not saying that means A2 is going to finish 50mil ahead of the orig AVATAR and gross 800mil. I'm not even saying it means it will gross 700mil, but I AM struggling to see how it will miss 600mil when its currently matching pace with the orig film.

Obviously the chance of a sequel matching the same drops and holds as the fist film through its entire run is not really feesable, but at the same time we are talking a 200mil split for A2 to miss 600mil, when at the moment its basically matcing the first film.

 

I really do wonder if 700mil is in play here. 600mil surely has to be near certain at this point.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

3rd biggest second Tuesday of all time... nothing to cheer about... we are in cuckoo land

There is no Tuesday no Wednesday. Its all weekend. Its Post XMAS.