ELEMENTAL | 342.0M overseas | 496.4M worldwide

[Bob Train]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Not after 6 weeks. Like I said, even if it does start to have significant bigger drops, it should do another 75M OS-J after this week. That’s enough for 500M, even if barely.
 

There is Ninja Turtles coming, but if Spidey can’t do much more than 300M OS in a sequel, i don’t see much reason for this movie to do over 200M OS. This style of animation still seems more niche foreign.
 

It can survive this, it survived Barbie already which is also quite a family movie even if not by design.
 

But you’re right, it is hard to extrapolate indeed, that’s why it’s still hard to project a finish for this, we have to just wait and see. But projecting the minimum is easier, and it really needs to start a completely different trajectory in it’s run from here to miss 500M. Can happen, it’s just unlikely now.

 

Puss 2 and TBG both made >60% of their money OS, there's no evidence that the animation style is niche overseas.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Bob Train said:

Puss 2 and TBG both made >60% of their money OS, there's no evidence that the animation style is niche overseas.

To be fair, PIB is a OS-heavy franchise. 
 

Let’s see, i expect Ninja Turtles to be successful, 200M OS and +150M DOM. 
 

I just don’t think it will explode OS to a point that would kill Elemental run.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Puss 2 and TBG both made >60% of their money OS, there's no evidence that the animation style is niche overseas.

I don't think the style of animation is niche I think the Turtles are niche in Korea and Japan.

I don't even know if the movie is has a release date in those markets.

[AniNate]

Turtles is late September in Japan, not sure about Korea

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Turtles is late September in Japan, not sure about Korea

that's a total dead zone in the Japanese box office.

[keysersoze123]

Phenomenal run for this movie. I am really happy that Pixar has made a come back. I feel good about Elio opening to 50m+ next year as its hopefully solo big release and Inside Out 2 should open big unless its a misfire(I am kind of worried as Docter is not making it). This also hopefully ensures good OW for Wish later this year. 

 

I dont see Turtles having any impact on this movie either domestic or overseas. Domestic its small enough to continue its own run and overseas I dont see Turtles being any kind of threat at all. Japan OW should be interesting to see with the post above showing it has good potential due to several reasons. 

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Japan OW should be interesting to see with the post above showing it has good potential due to several reasons. 

And even after OW there's the second weekend, which could increase.

 

And after the second weekend there's August 14-16, Monday-Wednesday, which is part of the Obon festival. Those days could also be really big. Though Barbie will be in the mix on the second weekend.

[YM!]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Not after 6 weeks. Like I said, even if it does start to have significant bigger drops, it should do another 75M OS-J after this week. That’s enough for 500M, even if barely.
 

There is Ninja Turtles coming, but if Spidey can’t do much more than 300M OS in a sequel, i don’t see much reason for this movie to do over 200M OS. This style of animation still seems more niche foreign.
 

It can survive this, it survived Barbie already which is also quite a family movie even if not by design.
 

But you’re right, it is hard to extrapolate indeed, that’s why it’s still hard to project a finish for this, we have to just wait and see. But projecting the minimum is easier, and it really needs to start a completely different trajectory in it’s run from here to miss 500M. Can happen, it’s just unlikely now.

 

I think it’s more of the meta-humor that doesn’t translate as strongly OS like most Lord and Miller movies have that did in Across. TMNT might be more similar to that, then it’s a problem but Puss and Bad Guys did strong OS.

[eeetooki]

22 hours ago, cannastop said:

Not only do Japanese Elemental trailers and tv spots get hundreds of thousands, if not millions of views, there seems to be a discourse on Japanese youtube on whether or not Elemental will be preachy or not.

 

So yeah I think there's a reasonable amount of anticipation. Really wonder how many seats it will be allotted.

 

It shares a release date with Crayon Shin-chan and Transformers though... I already am sure it will be evenly matched with the former in seats but I don't know what they'll do about the latest Transformers.

 

It does look like another weekly drop of more than 30% for How Do You Live though so I expect it to lose seats next week.

Ok totally didn't know Crayon Shin-chan is getting a movie. Totally going to watch that.

[keysersoze123]

last movie did 293m OS which is not a niche but more than 90m came from China/Russia/Ukraine. Dont see China coming anywhere close with the way hollywood movies are performing. I think latin america should be the best while Europe/ANZ should do ok. Asia I am expecting meh BO. Somewhere in 200-250m range OS.  

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Ok totally didn't know Crayon Shin-chan is getting a movie. Totally going to watch that.

There are Crayon Shin-chan movies like every year... this one will be in CG though. 3d rendered CG.

[cannastop]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

last movie did 293m OS which is not a niche but more than 90m came from China/Russia/Ukraine. Dont see China coming anywhere close with the way hollywood movies are performing. I think latin america should be the best while Europe/ANZ should do ok. Asia I am expecting meh BO. Somewhere in 200-250m range OS.  

are you posting in the right thread?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

are you posting in the right thread?

I was responding to the post about TMNT 2. Still wont have any impact on Elemental for sure. 

[Marcellus]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was responding to the post about TMNT 2. Still wont have any impact on Elemental for sure. 

All these are just guesses, let's wait and see. I know you are an elemental fan girl. But it's good to see the movie do so well after a bad start. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Landon1195]

Discussion: Do you think Elemental can make more in total than How Do You Live in Japan?

[Issac Newton]

13 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

Discussion: Do you think Elemental can make more in total than How Do You Live in Japan?

 

Let's defeat Universal/Illumination's "Minions: The Rise Of Gnu" (¥4.442B / $32.6M) first -

[kayumanggi]

On 7/22/2023 at 6:46 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

187.5M overseas | 318.9M worldwide

 

250.9M overseas | 397.1M worldwide

[noeliam]

On 8/2/2023 at 2:26 AM, Landon1195 said:

Discussion: Do you think Elemental can make more in total than How Do You Live in Japan?

The buzz is big here in Japan, I think $50m is possible…