ELEMENTAL | 342.0M overseas | 496.4M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

His drop is probably a typo, but here are some increases.

 

 

[TalismanRing]

Yeah he flipped it from 12% to 21% (18.3 -> 16.1)

[cannastop]

30 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

OS without Japan could reach around $375M. DOM I guess $170M doable. Over to you Japan.

No dom got screwed. $155m.dom maximum 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

We hyped it up for weeks and it's finally here. Elemental's presales for Monday in South Korea are up 88% from last week thanks to the school holidays. This isn't chump change either, last Monday Elemental made $515k, tomorrow's daily might be higher than DOM!

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

We hyped it up for weeks and it's finally here. Elemental's presales for Monday in South Korea are up 88% from last week thanks to the school holidays. This isn't chump change either, last Monday Elemental made $515k, tomorrow's daily might be higher than DOM!

It almost assuredly will be higher than the dom total. 

[Issac Newton]

Overseas Trends

 

06.18 - $15.0M

06.25 - $55.6M(+40.6M)

07.02 - $98.0M(+42.4M)(+4%)

07.09 - $142.7M(+44.7M)(+5%)

07.16 - $186.4M(+43.7M)(-2%)

07.23 - $219.4M(+33.0M)(-24%)

07.30 - $250.3M(+30.9M)(-6%)

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It almost assuredly will be higher than the dom total. 

 

Elementals weekdays in the US might be hurt less than it's weekends because reportedly most of it's showings are mornings and  early afternoons where it was probably already making most of it's money on weekdays. We'll see. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Overseas Trends

 

06.18 - $15.0M

06.25 - $55.6M(+40.6M)

07.02 - $98.0M(+42.4M)(+4%)

07.09 - $142.7M(+44.7M)(+5%)

07.16 - $186.4M(+43.7M)(-2%)

07.23 - $219.4M(+33.0M)(-24%)

07.30 - $250.3M(+30.9M)(-6%)

Crazy holds. 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[titanic2187]

Looks like Japan is the last major market. After this weekend hold, I am adjusting down my expectation on domestic number to $155m-$160m given that TMNT is coming. Chances of $500m is slim unless Japan really come out like Zootopia.

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Looks like Japan is the last major market. After this weekend hold, I am adjusting down my expectation on domestic number to $155m-$160m given that TMNT is coming. Chances of $500m is slim unless Japan really come out like Zootopia.

 

It just had a $30.9m week O/S - dropping 6% - it could do another $100m+ w/o Japan.

[PatrickvD]

Northern Europe is having rain and southern Europe is too hot to handle. So everyone is taking their kids to the movies. Elemental will keep chugging along because the forecast isn’t changing.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Looks like Japan is the last major market. After this weekend hold, I am adjusting down my expectation on domestic number to $155m-$160m given that TMNT is coming. Chances of $500m is slim unless Japan really come out like Zootopia.

Nah, 500M is quite likely actually 

 

It just made 30M this past week with a 6% drop … it can very easily do another 100M OS for 350M totals. 
 

Even with 160M DOM, it’s actually likely it will make 500M at this point, even if Japan doesn’t overperform

[ThomasNicole]

The worst case scenario at this point would be: 

 

150M DOM (+5M coming off ~8M weekly) 

325M OS-J (+75M coming off ~31M weekly) 

Standard 10M Japan 

 

That would still be 485M total. And this if OS suddenly start to drop hard.
 

I’m with Charlie here, +500M is happening without Japan 

Edited July 30, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[AniNate]

I imagine Elemental will probably take a hit from Turtles in most markets, but I do think it's enough of a draw on its own that it won't kill its 500m chances.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

46 minutes ago, PatrickvD said:

Northern Europe is having rain and southern Europe is too hot to handle. So everyone is taking their kids to the movies. Elemental will keep chugging along because the forecast isn’t changing.

I need it to keep raining in the UK for other reasons but if it helps Elemental the better

[titanic2187]

39 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nah, 500M is quite likely actually 

 

It just made 30M this past week with a 6% drop … it can very easily do another 100M OS for 350M totals. 
 

Even with 160M DOM, it’s actually likely it will make 500M at this point, even if Japan doesn’t overperform

The tricky part about a leggy run like Elemental is, very often the legs can for whatever reason, ended abruptly. A simple extrapolate sometime isn't work.   

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The tricky part about a leggy run like Elemental is, very often the legs can for whatever reason, ended abruptly. A simple extrapolate sometime isn't work.   

Not after 6 weeks. Like I said, even if it does start to have significant bigger drops, it should do another 75M OS-J after this week. That’s enough for 500M, even if barely.
 

There is Ninja Turtles coming, but if Spidey can’t do much more than 300M OS in a sequel, i don’t see much reason for this movie to do over 200M OS. This style of animation still seems more niche foreign.
 

It can survive this, it survived Barbie already which is also quite a family movie even if not by design.
 

But you’re right, it is hard to extrapolate indeed, that’s why it’s still hard to project a finish for this, we have to just wait and see. But projecting the minimum is easier, and it really needs to start a completely different trajectory in it’s run from here to miss 500M. Can happen, it’s just unlikely now.

 

[AniNate]

I think Ninja Turtles does have somewhat more international appeal than Spider-Man, the OS:DOM ratios with the recent live action films have been significantly higher with them.

 

EDIT: Compared to the Spiderverse movies I guess, Marvel Spider-Mans have been higher. Still, I feel like the martial arts themes give it a little more international interest.

Edited July 30, 2023 by AniNate

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I think Ninja Turtles does have somewhat more international appeal than Spider-Man, the OS:DOM ratios with the recent live action films have been significantly higher with them.

 

EDIT: Compared to the Spiderverse movies I guess, Marvel Spider-Mans have been higher. Still, I feel like the martial arts themes give it a little more international interest.

I don't think the Ninja Turtles are going much of anywhere in Korea or Japan.