How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

[El Gato]

14 hours ago, Sophie said:

Are we forgetting Mermaid, or are you thinking it won't make 700M?

I did forget Mermaid lol 

 

I think it’ll cross 700 but not by a lot. China and Korea numbers don’t seem very good

[Austin]

5 hours ago, El Gato said:

I did forget Mermaid lol 

 

I think it’ll cross 700 but not by a lot. China and Korea numbers don’t seem very good

You forgot MI7. WW numbers seem to increase with the franchise and MI6 almost hit $800M.

[Sophie]

7 hours ago, El Gato said:

I did forget Mermaid lol 

 

I think it’ll cross 700 but not by a lot. China and Korea numbers don’t seem very good

How China heavy do these Disney remakes tend to be? It just doesn't really seem like something made for China. 

[JustLurking]

22 minutes ago, Sophie said:

How China heavy do these Disney remakes tend to be? It just doesn't really seem like something made for China. 

China was the biggest international market for Jungle Book and TLK (150 and 120) and 3rd biggest for BatB and Aladdin (80 and 50, beaten by Japan and UK for the first and Japan and SK for the second).

[Austin]

25 minutes ago, Sophie said:

How China heavy do these Disney remakes tend to be? It just doesn't really seem like something made for China. 

China is like a top 3 grosser in OS markets for Aladdin, BatB, and TLK. So pretty heavy.

 

Edit: Also was by far biggest market for The Jungle Book remake.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Austin

[Sophie]

4 hours ago, Austin said:

China is like a top 3 grosser in OS markets for Aladdin, BatB, and TLK. So pretty heavy.

 

Edit: Also was by far biggest market for The Jungle Book remake.

So what are we looking at for TLM? A 50/50 dom os split? 

[Austin]

1 hour ago, Sophie said:

So what are we looking at for TLM? A 50/50 dom os split? 

Probably something like that, might go more to OS if EU eats it up but around there is my best guess.

[Avatree]

Aside from Mario, Guardians, and Fast X...

 

+ Transformers

+ Mission: Impossible

+ The Marvels

+ Aquaman 2

 

- Little Mermaid will miss

- Indiana Jones will flop

- Spiderverse 2 will do less than the first spiderverse

- The Flash under Man of Steel but above Shazam

- Oppenheimer not big enough. Under Dunkirk

- Dune: As Big A Flop as The First One

- Hunger Games: Underperforms

Edited May 23, 2023 by Avatree

[Grebacio]

14 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

- Spiderverse 2 will do less than the first spiderverse

 

Absolutely no chance 

[Bob Train]

Mario just passed 700m in solely international gross...A great feat considering many people thought it wouldn't hit that much worldwide 

[Bob Train]

Spider-Verse is unlikely to hit a billion and may not hit 750m+ but I highly doubt it makes less than the first

[Issac Newton]

Adding "How Do You Live?" &"Meg 2"

[Sophie]

5 hours ago, Avatree said:

Aside from Mario, Guardians, and Fast X...

 

+ Transformers

+ Mission: Impossible

+ The Marvels

+ Aquaman 2

 

- Little Mermaid will miss

- Indiana Jones will flop

- Spiderverse 2 will do less than the first spiderverse

- The Flash under Man of Steel but above Shazam

- Oppenheimer not big enough. Under Dunkirk

- Dune: As Big A Flop as The First One

- Hunger Games: Underperforms

 

 

I thought Dune sucked, personally. But it comes across as pretty trollish to define it as a flop. Even if it technically wasn't able to break even for whatever reason, making $400M against a $165M budget while the world hadn't fully recovered from COVID is pretty damn impressive. Plus it had great word of mouth. So I don't know why you wouldn't expect to increase at least a little from the first one. 

 

The Spider-Verse making less than $400M prediction is also pretty bold.

[WorkingonaName]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Adding "How Do You Live?" &"Meg 2"

unfamothably based     

[dudalb]

On 5/23/2023 at 2:57 PM, Avatree said:

Aside from Mario, Guardians, and Fast X...

 

+ Transformers

+ Mission: Impossible

+ The Marvels

+ Aquaman 2

 

- Little Mermaid will miss

- Indiana Jones will flop

- Spiderverse 2 will do less than the first spiderverse

- The Flash under Man of Steel but above Shazam

- Oppenheimer not big enough. Under Dunkirk

- Dune: As Big A Flop as The First One

- Hunger Games: Underperforms

Calling Dune a flop ruins your credibtility.

And I think Little Mermaid has a better chance of 700 Million then Transformers.

[Asyulus]

Looks like Fast X will definitely make it, so five this year.

 

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

5. Fast X

 

Long shot:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

7. The Little Mermaid

8. The Marvels

Edited May 25, 2023 by Asyulus

[Issac Newton]

On 5/24/2023 at 1:44 PM, WorkingonaName said:

unfamothably based     

How Do You Live will make $450M+ ~ $550M+ in Asia itself. If Disney handle Outside Asia Release like Spirited Away - $300M+ is on card // $750M-$850M WW since it's Miyazaki Last Film

 

Meg 2 is US-China Co-production so $500M-$600M itself coming from China. So another $100M from USA &Remaining market isn't hard

[Sophie]

11 hours ago, Asyulus said:

Looks like Fast X will definitely make it, so five this year.

 

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

5. Fast X

 

Long shot:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

7. The Little Mermaid

8. The Marvels

No Flash? Probably the safest bet at this point, other than Fast X and GOTG ofc. 

[Asyulus]

Just now, Sophie said:

No Flash? Probably the safest bet at this point, other than Fast X and GOTG ofc. 

Domestic presales aren't that good currently. Internationally is unknown but I don't think it will be substantially big enough. It's far from being safe and I have just more than half of it at $370M WW.

[Sophie]

3 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

Domestic presales aren't that good currently. Internationally is unknown but I don't think it will be substantially big enough. It's far from being safe and I have just more than half of it at $370M WW.

To be clear, I don't think any film is "safe" outside of GOTG and probably Fast X. I just think Flash is the closest to safe, because it's coming out soon, and the marketting rollout has gone well. 

 

Did this bad tracking come out in the last few days? Do you think BOM will lower their projections a ton tomorrow?

 

$370M ww for Flash would be insanely bad, but it wouldn't be the first time DC had a jaw dropping flop.