How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

[stripe]

What about Transformers? Reviews are more solid than I thought, OS markets love the franchise and DOM presales are not that bad.

A month ago I would have bet it would be the disaster of the Summer, but now...

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, stripe said:

What about Transformers? Reviews are more solid than I thought, OS markets love the franchise and DOM presales are not that bad.

A month ago I would have bet it would be the disaster of the Summer, but now...

Haven't seen anything in any market that makes me think 700 could be on the cards at all - I'd take the under even on 600

Edited June 6, 2023 by JustLurking

[stripe]

 

59 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Haven't seen anything in any market that makes me think 700 could be on the cards at all - I'd take the under even on 600

 

I agree it's really unlikely. Anyways, a month ago I would have said under 300M and now I am more in 500M+ train with a chance of 600M.

150M DOM

400M OS

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

 

I agree it's really unlikely. Anyways, a month ago I would have said under 300M and now I am more in 500M+ train with a chance of 600M.

150M DOM

400M OS

Maybe OS can get that good if it's lucky, but I think it's really unlikely that dom will be that good. Bumblebee only got to 127 domestic with way better reviews and a way less crowded December vs a crowded June with Holiday weekdays helping it out a lot.

[stripe]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Maybe OS can get that good if it's lucky, but I think it's really unlikely that dom will be that good. Bumblebee only got to 127 domestic with way better reviews and a way less crowded December vs a crowded June with Holiday weekdays helping it out a lot.

 

It could fall short of 150M, but not by much. Looking at presales, Rise of the Beasts could open in the 50-60M range. It's set to outgross Bumblebee

[Mulder]

8 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

It could fall short of 150M, but not by much. Looking at presales, Rise of the Beasts could open in the 50-60M range. It's set to outgross Bumblebee

Presales are showing 60 as like the extreme high-end, it's looking more like mid 40s to mid 50s right now. If it does hit 50 lets say, it'd need a 3x to reach 150. Not impossible but like I said, unlikely. It's about to get hit with a 70+ opener next week (At minimum, could go into the 90s), dealing with the 3rd weekend of Spider-Verse, and then after that it's going to deal with Indy 5 and then all of July's openers. Like I said, not impossible but the thought of it doing THAT well is pretty unlikely.

EDIT: For context the previous TF multis were-

Bumblebee-5.8x (Only possible because of Holiday weekends and a small OW)

The Last Knight-2.96

Age of Extinction-2.45

Giving it Last Knight's multi would get it to 150 if it opened to 50 or higher but Last Knight also had a more open schedule for a bit until Homecoming. We'll see.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Mulder

[JustLurking]

I don't think it's making 450M OS. TLK had 475 and China will drop big time. Russia is a nonstarter, South korea looks bad. ERs are worse than in 2017 across the board.

[Sophie]

Yeah, I'd say $90M dom may be the over-under right now. Which is still way higher than expectations a few weeks ago, which were more like $75M. 

 

If it does overperform to like $60M opening weekend, then I suppose decent legs could get it to around 140M and a 20/80 dom/os split could get it to 700M world wide. 

 

But it's definitely a stretch, assuming it doesn't have some insane 12.5/87.5 type split. 

[Sophie]

BOP has been projecting legs of 2.1-2.2x for transformers, which is understandable given the franchise and the schedule. But now that we know reviews are positive, legs closer to the 2 3-2.4 range could be in range. 

[Koni]

The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Fast X
Spider Man: Across The Spider-Verse
The Flash
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

Meg 2: The Trench

Dune: Part Two

The Marvels
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Underlined - already surpassed threshold 
Bold - locked
Italic - fairly confident

The rest I think have a shot but have major questions that cause me to doubt it. This may change over time - to be more specific, I may italicize Flash, Marvels, and Aquaman, since I think they're fairly close. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Koni
Organized by release dates.

[Mulder]

3 hours ago, Sophie said:

BOP has been projecting legs of 2.1-2.2x for transformers, which is understandable given the franchise and the schedule. But now that we know reviews are positive, legs closer to the 2 3-2.4 range could be in range. 

I wouldn't exactly call reviews positive. They're pretty middling and it's more then likely going to end in the 50s on RT.

[dudalb]

11 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I don't think it's making 450M OS. TLK had 475 and China will drop big time. Russia is a nonstarter, South korea looks bad. ERs are worse than in 2017 across the board.

Russian market in theaters for Western film is non existenent. Of course you have piracy, but I think it's lcear that the current Regime thinks that Western Movies are a corrupting influence on Russian Youth.

In other words,back to the Soviet Union until the current regime collapses. which doulc not happen fast enough for me.

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

I wouldn't exactly call reviews positive. They're pretty middling and it's more then likely going to end in the 50s on RT.

Which when you are trying to reignite a comatose franchsie is not really good enough.

Interesting if the film underperfroms which seems likely, they will keep with the 

Spoiler

Crossover with GI Joe angle in the post credit scenes.

 

[Mulder]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

I wouldn't exactly call reviews positive. They're pretty middling and it's more then likely going to end in the 50s on RT.

It did end up in the 50s on RT lol.

[dudalb]

Transformers will be lucky to get 500 Million.

Problem is some people don't get that franchises can run out of gas and die. Nothing lasts forever.

Edited June 7, 2023 by dudalb

[cannastop]

On 5/25/2023 at 1:49 AM, Issac Newton said:

How Do You Live will make $450M+ ~ $550M+ in Asia itself. If Disney handle Outside Asia Release like Spirited Away - $300M+ is on card // $750M-$850M WW since it's Miyazaki Last Film

I guess this would all depend on how China responds to the movie...

 

I think realistically Miyazaki's How Do You Live will top out at ¥20 billion in Japan. That's about $140 million in today's exchange rate.

 

I don't see a reason why Miyazaki's movie will exceed... Suzume's gross.

 

Let's be generous and give Miyazaki's movie $50 million from South Korea and $150 million from China...

 

That's less than $400 million from the Asian countries like you said.

 

But there's no way it's going to make more than $20 million in the USA+Canada.

 

But let's be frisky and calculate the best case scenario for the movie.

 

Japan Gross: ¥40 billion (like Demon Slayer), or $290 million.

 

South Korea: $90 million (Like Frozen 2)

 

China: ¥5 billion (like Ne Zha) or $700 million.

 

That would get you at $1.08 billion... but the great majority of it would be from China, a hard market to predict. A market that makes random hits out of movies like Zootopia and Coco...

[Issac Newton]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

- snip -

Theatrical Rights are quite high for Miyazaki Film. So, so far no Film Studio has confirmed buy-out. ER of Japan/China still gives me hallucinations.

 

For me, $200M China + $150M Japan (at my sense could be go bigger and bigger if end up like Spirited Away)

 

So, East Asia will be roughly $450M by my prediction. Asia will be above $500M if all those numbers from East Asia bonkers.

 

Taking in at long range highest could be $550M Asia. (Yeah, not reaching heights of NeZha in China, Frozen in Korea, DS in Japan/Taiwan, Toy Story at Hong Kong, Frozen at SEA, Mech at Malaysia)

 

Now, it's up to Outside Asia, if behaviour are like TLM in Asia ~ "Lack Of Interest" then that will be a problem. 

 

But, it should work out and possibly bleach out

 

And yeah, I love your best scenario!!

[Issac Newton]

Anyways if anyone missed Miyazaki's Final Film "How Do You Live?" 

 

They are probably missing the Best Animation of the century!!

[scytheavatar]

Problem is that The Wind Rises suggests Miyazaki is moving away from making crowd pleasing animation that bring in megabucks and moving towards Oscar-bait stuff that appeals to a smaller audience. Trying to use The First Slam Dunk strategy of hiding information on the movie is worse news as I would argue that movie made big money despite of the strategy rather than because of it. The return of Slam Dunk was always going to be big news and their non-marketing actually killed some hype for the movie. Toei probably could have made more money had they marketed the movie normally. I think Toho is making a mistake if they think everyone will flock to see Miyazaki's last movie without knowing what exactly it is about.

[cannastop]

22 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

Problem is that The Wind Rises suggests Miyazaki is moving away from making crowd pleasing animation that bring in megabucks and moving towards Oscar-bait stuff that appeals to a smaller audience. Trying to use The First Slam Dunk strategy of hiding information on the movie is worse news as I would argue that movie made big money despite of the strategy rather than because of it. The return of Slam Dunk was always going to be big news and their non-marketing actually killed some hype for the movie. Toei probably could have made more money had they marketed the movie normally. I think Toho is making a mistake if they think everyone will flock to see Miyazaki's last movie without knowing what exactly it is about.

That will only affect the Japanese release. I assume there will be trailers and information available when it's exported.

 

Also for an Oscar Bait movie, ¥12 billion is a lot for Wind Rises.

Yeah it's not the same as Spirited Away or Princess Mononoke. I also doubt he made a rollicking action movie like those.