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Sophie

How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

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Both 2022 and 2023, a Chinese movie has grossed in the mid-600Ms. 

 

In 2022, the top 8 all made above 700M and outgrossed that Chinese movie. 

 

How many will make 700M in 2023? Will it be more or less than 8 films?

 

My predictions: 

 

Likely:

 

* Fast X (last one made 700M during covid)
* The Marvels (sequel to 1.1B movie)

* Aquaman (sequel to 1.1B movie)

* Little Mermaid (Aladdin, Lion King and BATB all made over a billion before COVID)
GOTG (assuming MCU doesn't drop the ball again)

* Indiana Jones (wild card, but boomer nostalgia is big rn)

Maybe: 

Mission Impossible (One of the most consistent franchises, was making 700-800M before covid)

Mario? (big wild card)

Flash? (wild card)

Probably not, but worth mentioning: 

Dune 2? (long shot)
Elemental (Disney/Pixar annimation been dropping the ball lately, so it's a long shot)
Transformers? (I would say no)
Hunger Games (huge long shot)
Spider-Verse (long shot)

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IMO 
Locks:
1. Little Mermaid
2. Mario Bros

Highly Likely
3. Indy Jones
4. GotG 3
5. M:I Dead Reckoning
6. Aquaman 
7. The Flash
8. The Marvels
9. Fast X

50/50
10. Transformers
11. Spiderverse
12. Blue Beatle

Long Shot
13. Elemental
14. Wish
15. Ducks
16. Barbie
17. Oppenheimer
18. Dune

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Why would Blue Beatle have a 50/50 shot when Black Adam couldn't even cross 400M with The Rock?

 

Why would Flash make 700M so easy when Justice League wasn't able to break it before Covid? I guess there isn't as immediately toxic of as there was with JL and BvS. 

 

What is Ducks?

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Why would Blue Beatle have a 50/50 shot when Black Adam couldn't even cross 400M with The Rock?

 

Why would Flash make 700M so easy when Justice League wasn't able to break it before Covid? I guess there isn't as immediately toxic of as there was with JL and BvS. 

 

What is Ducks?

 

 

 

DUCKS is actually called MIGRATION now. It's a computer animated movie by Illumination about a family of ducks. Releases on December 22 this year.

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In order of gross, not likelihood (though they're obviously related):

 

1. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1

2. Indiana Jones 5

3. Fast X

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. The Flash

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (won't make it if it doesn't have China)

7. The Little Mermaid

8. Mario

 

Those are the only ones I think will make it but others with a decent chance are Meg 2, The Marvels. Long shots are Dune 2, Spiderverse, and Rise of the Beasts.

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5 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Technically, The Way of Water should already be on all these lists...

Way of Water is a 2022 film.

The way that box office records work is that even if a film makes most of it's money the year after it is released, not at all unsual...  the box office counts toward it's 2022 totals.

Edited by dudalb
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A lot of wishful thinking in this thread.

Oppenehimer is one of my most anticpated tilms,  but it ain't doing anywhere near 700 Million. Sorry to say, but the days when a serious straight drama make that kind of money are long gone.

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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

Way of Water is a 2022 film.

The way that box office records work is that even if a film makes most of it's money the year after it is released, not at all unsual...  the box office counts toward it's 2022 totals.

C’mon man, I know how this works… but OP didn’t get that specific ;) TWOW is indeed a film that has made over $700m WW I’m 2023

Edited by OncomingStorm93
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On 3/4/2023 at 5:15 AM, xieh tie said:

why 700M? its some kind of lucky number?

Because in both 2022 and 2023, that's about how much it takes to beat the big Chinese movie. 

 

Just kind of a useful benchmark when looking at the "20XX in film" pages on Wikipedia 

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On 3/3/2023 at 4:57 AM, Issac Newton said:

Mission Impossible VII

Indiana Jones 5

Fast &Furious X

The Flash

Aquaman 2

THE FIRST SLAM DUNK

How Do You Live?

No Guardians? I don't see how it misses the $700M mark with China. Even Love and Thunder crossed that threshold pretty easily with toxic wom 

Edited by TheFlatLannister
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