OPPENHEIMER | 644.2M overseas | 974.1M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Only 24% drop from IMAX format from last week. 

Its going to have only upcoming weekdays and another week of Imax domestic. Its possible some mega 70mm Imax could continue considering insane demand but its holds post losing Imax would be key to see where it ends up. of course if it can get back Imax again it will make a big difference to where it ends up. 

 

Korea should have a big OW. But its a market about legs as much as OW. Let us see how the reception goes and then we can predict where it ends up. Interstellar had insane run to 10m+ admits. With the crazy ATP it could have based on presales that would put it at highest OS market !!!. China has been downer for hollywood movies but I am curious about this one as its not atypical movie. Let us wait and see. Italy should add ~15m and Japan release is still a question. Its not a market known to ban movies and so its up to the distribution team to come up with a plan. I think even if it "bombed" over there, 10m gross could happen with just Imax screens for couple of weeks in few cities. But let us wait and see how things go. 

 

WW I think Guardians is probable and 900m+ is also strongly in play based on where China could go. 

[The Dark Alfred]

900m is in play if Korea delivers. Jaw-dropping run.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Crazy to me this is gunning for Inception which is still by far the most accessible Nolan film other than his Batman ones.

[charlie Jatinder]

I am told highest grossing IMAX film in India beating Avatar but seems hard to believe it already is because Avatar was equally big in IMAX.

[Issac Newton]

From @BoxOfficeRaport

 

$9.6M Brazil

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

I am told highest grossing IMAX film in India beating Avatar but seems hard to believe it already is because Avatar was equally big in IMAX.

 

According to IMAX CEO during interview. 

Quote

He also said that Avatar: The Way Of Water is IMAX's highest-grossing movie in India. It has earned $4 million, that is, a mind-boggling Rs. 32.65 crores in IMAX screens in India. Its box office collections till date have been nearly Rs 368 crores. This means that around 10% of Avatar: The way of Water's earnings came from just 23 screens of IMAX in India. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

 

According to IMAX CEO during interview. 

 

Problem with this is the website that published is very bad at paraphrasing, so original quote could be different than what is said here, even though I would say 32 no. is more better than what I was told.
 

Oppy IMAX gross is ₹33cr ish. But Avatar 2 I am

told is just ₹24cr, which I feel is low.

 

Before release was expecting ₹100cr from Imax in India by Avatar 2, but even something like ₹50-60cr be acceptable. It only did half of that.

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Problem with this is the website that published is very bad at paraphrasing, so original quote could be different than what is said here, even though I would say 32 no. is more better than what I was told.
 

Oppy IMAX gross is ₹33cr ish. But Avatar 2 I am

told is just ₹24cr, which I feel is low.

 

Before release was expecting ₹100cr from Imax in India by Avatar 2, but even something like ₹50-60cr be acceptable. It only did half of that.

But how is this a realistic expectation? There are 23 IMAX screens in India. Assuming there are 300 seats for each of them and 4 session per day with $10 per IMAX 3D ticket. You won't even get $1m in one single weekend from these 23 screens. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

But how is this a realistic expectation? There are 23 IMAX screens in India. Assuming there are 300 seats for each of them and 4 session per day with $10 per IMAX 3D ticket. You won't even get $1m in one single weekend from these 23 screens. 

Avatar 1 did ₹7cr  with ₹250 tickets in an IMAX screen. Ran for 9 months.

[Purple Minion]

Actuals.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

crazy drop

[Sophia Jane]

Oppy Collected 27m(15m first WE+12m Second WE) EGP in 2 weeks,Truly social phenomena performance like Joker had done before ,think it’s gonna beat No way home(59m) in Egypt and shattered in Top 10 highest grossing film of all time

Edited August 7, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Issac Newton]

Germany 

 

1. WE 504.297

2. WE 600.976 (+19%)

3. WE 522.527 (-13%)

 

2.343.428 Admission - €25.979.611

[keysersoze123]

It increased quite a bit from already insane OS hold !!! Let us see how this weekend goes. Would Grand Turismo take away Imax in some markets? Otherwise I am not sure what is the ceiling on existing markets. Can it go as high as 500m !!!

Edited August 7, 2023 by keysersoze123

[KeepItU25071906]

30 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

crazy drop

385-395 OS next Sunday.

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

I see Russia and territories listed as future release markets. I am assuming this is a random user entry as I dont see how it can release in those markets at this point. 

 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

On 8/1/2023 at 4:41 PM, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

South Korea

 

Oppenheimer T-13 Presales - 66,079 tickets

ATP - 18,227 KRW ($14.12)

 

Comps

• 3.256x Tenet (T-13) -> 448.4k OD admissions ($6.331m at current ATP)

This is a quick and dirty comp, Tenet opened on a non-holiday Wednesday, Oppy will open on a public holiday so should see a much higher OD in my opinion. So far only PLF tickets have been sold, once standard showings start to trickle in the ATP will come down. The holiday boost should come close to cancelling out the lower final ATP so the dollar value might be a decent ballpark estimate for now.

 

I have some other T-13 comps but none of them seem useful since they aren't as frontloaded by extreme PLF demand. You'd be seeing absurd numbers like 10x local hits that opened to 300k admissions which is silly.

South Korea - Oppenheimer Presales (T-7)

 

 

Movie	T-7	1-day Pace	2-day Pace	3-day Pace
Oppenheimer	147,738	14.50%	28.60%	43.90%
Tenet	53,110	16.70%	29.80%	39.40%
Thor 4	127,000	17.60%	38.00%
Smugglers	62,404	15.50%	54.70%	66.00%
GOTG 3	54,500	19.80%	51.40%	94.60%
Captain Marvel	99,054	20.90%	58.40%	112.30%

 

Comps at T-7 (using Avatar TWOW's OD ATP of $8.92 for dollar estimates)

• 2.782x Tenet -> 383k OD ($3.42m)
• 1.163x Thor 4 -> 445k OD ($3.97m)
• 2.367x Smugglers -> 753k OD ($6.72m)
• 2.711x GOTG 3 -> 443k OD ($3.95m)
• 1.491x Captain Marvel -> 688k OD ($6.14m)
• Average -> 542k OD ($4.83m)

I found some more comps! Captain Marvel is from 2019 but it behaved like a slightly faster Thor 4, which Oppenheimer is pretty closely following so I figured I'd include it as a stronger case. In terms of relative pace Oppy has slowed down a little bit versus the other comps as you can see in the table above, so expect these ratios to go down a little. As I said before comparing just the opening days is a little misleading since Oppy opens on a public holiday while most of these comps opened on a normal Wednesday. Smugglers and Tenet both had the highest PSM over OD, both were in the 1.3x range which is roughly where Oppy could end up. It could even be higher but I doubt it with how backloaded some of those IMAX bookings will be. Instead of extrapolating to the OD, if we instead extrapolate the current ratios with the T-0's of everything we get

• 2.782x Tenet -> 289k T-0 
• 1.163x Thor 4 -> 527k T-0 
• 2.367x Smugglers -> 575k T-0 
• 2.711x GOTG 3 -> 732k T-0 
• 1.491x Captain Marvel -> 659k T-0 
• Average -> 556k T-0 

Then, based on a PSM of 1.0-1.3 this would produce an OD of 556k - 723k ($4.96m - $6.45m), though I must stress again that this estimate is probably a little high since Oppy's pace in recent days has been relatively slower than most of the comps. Conservatively I'm predicting ~$3.5-4m for now until I see how it accelerates in these final few days.