Weekend Actuals (Jun 23 - 25) | 19.00M ATSV | 18.44M ELEMENTAL | 15.14M THE FLASH | 15.00M NO HARD FEELINGS

[Spidey Freak]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Apparently that is the best second weekend hold for a Pixar movie since Up. Kinda surprising.

 

Not really once you consider the vast majority of the (theatrical) Pixar films after Up have been fan-driven sequels.

 

And then there was Onward's second weekend kicking off the global lockdown 🥲 

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Apparently that is the best second weekend hold for a Pixar movie since Up. Kinda surprising.

Opened pretty low helped that but I do think it's well liked. Anecdotally, all the parents I know with kids that saw it really, really liked it.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Not really once you consider the vast majority of the (theatrical) Pixar films after Up have been fan-driven sequels.

 

And then there was Onward's second weekend kicking off the global lockdown 🥲 

It's kind of even... Brave, Inside Out, Good Dinosaur, Coco and Onward all released since Up.

[AniNate]

I thought Elemental was doomed to bad legs at one time because of its lukewarm critical reception but it seems like people are taking more to its pleasant undemanding tone than Lightyear's kinda dull and mopey one. I think Thomas Newman deserves a lot of credit for that, he's been a master of atmosphere since the 90s.

[DAR]

21 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

As of the weekend this year is 58% of last years total so unless the back half of the year Utterly crumbles it should end well ahead. Still way down from covid but i think 9 billion will be a possibility. June will probably end up over last years June but it'll take till Friday to get there.

Except the holiday season doesn’t have an Avatar or NWH.  But maybe it will be good if it’s spread out among several films

[DAJK]

Glad (most) holdovers saw good drops this weekend, but what worries me about this week (and the past few weeks) at the box office is how much depth the weekend top 10 is going to lose now. A month ago, you had Spiderverse, Transformers, Mermaid, Fast, etc. (and even last weekend, Elemental and Flash) pulling in audiences. Next weekend, it's basically going to be Indy and scraps. Which is what the box office has really looked like since COVID (1 big opener and scraps). Hoping July rebounds in a big way, which I can genuinely see happening, thankfully. 

[cookie]

18 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Apparently that is the best second weekend hold for a Pixar movie since Up. Kinda surprising.

I actually think it's the most promising sign we've had that Pixar/WDAS's box office status isn't entirely beyond repair. We now have a movie with some staying power unlike Lightyear and Strange World which both opened poorly and then quickly vanished from theaters. Provided Disney holds off the streaming release for a good while, this could bode better for future releases.

Edited June 25, 2023 by cookie

[JohnnyGossamer]

42 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I thought Elemental was doomed to bad legs at one time because of its lukewarm critical reception but it seems like people are taking more to its pleasant undemanding tone than Lightyear's kinda dull and mopey one. I think Thomas Newman deserves a lot of credit for that, he's been a master of atmosphere since the 90s.

This is why I think Luca, if released now, would've done very well and with outstanding legs. It has a summer vibe. It's simple and not demanding. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[ThomasNicole]

Very happy with Elemental run so far. 38% drop is astonishing, and considering it’s competition until August is looking DOA, i’m confident 4x multiplier and 120-130M DOM is happening. The fact that it doesn’t have PFL’s since the beginning should also help drops to keep consistently low. 
 

Even more happy with OS tho. It have some fantastic drops in the countries where if opened last weekend, some solid openings this weekend and WOM seems to be strong everywhere. 
 

So far, it seems like it’ll be ahead of The Good Dinosaur in most markets, that one made +200M OS. With some big markets yet to come and strong legs, I think this can ended up with 220-230M OS. 
 

Sure, ~350M WW isn’t a good result for a 200M budget, but considering how it opened, it’s a nice rebound and could be the beginning of a comeback for original animations in theaters. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Spidey Freak]

37 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yes but the disaster seals the fate of dc. Pretty much everything linked to that is dead. 

 

Honestly, they would have probably been better off sticking with Hamada's plans of DC Multiverse with the Battinson and Joker standalone franchises and the main DCEU with Keaton Batman and Batgirl joining the rest of the Leaguers. Instead they dumped Cavill and announced the reboot for Gunn's grandiose plans, which rang the death knell for the 2023 DCEU films.

 

Worst display of crisis management. Third disastrous decision on WB's part in a span of 6 years after offboarding Snyder and Terrio from JL just when they were getting the hang of the franchise, and announcing day and date OTT release for their entire 2021 slate. At this point these 3 would run the studio better:

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

So just for fun I want to know how much Indy 5 needs to gross to avoid bombing as hard as The Flash. Let's assume the reported production budgets are correct ($220m for Flash, $290m for Indy) then based on this image

a marketing budget of $160m for both movies seems suitable (the number doesn't really matter, just that both probably have a similar marketing budget based on historical blockbuster marketing budgets).

 

For The Flash if it ends up finishing at 105/170 that would be a take-home of roughly 105 * 0.5 + 170 * 0.4 = $120.5m, let's just say $120m and an overall loss of $260m (220m prod + 160 marketing - 120m theatrical).

 

For Indy 5 to do better than that, it would need to bring in more than $190m in theatrical revenue to offset its $450m cost. Assuming a 40:60 DOM:OS ratio (same as The Crystal Skull) this would be distributed as $173m DOM and $259m OS for $432m worldwide.

 

I'm pessimistic on Indy 5 (I even have a club where I think it will gross less than Puss in Boots 2's $484m) but I think it should clear $432m. Obviously this doesn't include post-theatrical earnings where I think it should do better than The Flash but that's an entirely different story and I could be way off on that one.

[ThomasNicole]

Very happy for Wes Anderson as well, his movies are usually leggy, I think Asteroid City can ended up with 35-40M DOM. 
 

We’ll have to wait months to see the WW figures but i think 80-100M is possible. 
 

Very good result for smaller movies, is always nice seeing respected auteurs being celebrated by it’s audience. 
 

And thank God his work at Netflix will be a one-off and he’s already planning his next theatrical release. 

[MightyDargon]

I don't think Transformers breaks 150 mil which was the main target I had for it.

Pissed.

[Eric is Quiet]

Elemental I feel does well in having just enough wackiness and silliness for the kiddies, but also enough heart and quiet moments to make it fun for parents that it does well in translating to "yeah, worth a watch"-style WOM. The other big benefit of course is that this is a summer that doesn't have much of anything for kids, in particular girls and the 5-9 crowd who likely won't be all that enamored by Spider-Verse. So if you've already seen Little Mermaid, your options are pretty thin, especially with Barbie and Haunted Mansion being PG-13 movies (though I'm assuming they will still get a decent kid crowd? I think?). So with Ruby Gillman likely gone after two weeks, a lot of these kids don't have any other option until...Paw Patrol in September. It's really frustrating how few options there are for little kids tbh.

 

Either way, that will at least make the bleeding not as bad for Pixar and perhaps a good morale booster that their films can still appeal to the youths on the big screen.

[ringedmortality]

The updated version of Moviepass sucks. After this weekend I'm cancelling it. This credit system is dumb.

[Cappoedameron]

A major studio headed by a man that completely devalues animation being beaten by two animated movies at the box office is the perfect karma IMO.

 

[ZeroHour]

37 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I thought Elemental was doomed to bad legs at one time because of its lukewarm critical reception but it seems like people are taking more to its pleasant undemanding tone than Lightyear's kinda dull and mopey one. I think Thomas Newman deserves a lot of credit for that, he's been a master of atmosphere since the 90s.

I think Lightyear just had so little appeal for kids and that ultimately killed any chance of legs. Elemental is not only better received but better received by children and that’s a huge help. The kids at my screening ate up every minute of it. 

[Cappoedameron]

 

Great job there Zassy boy but Batgirl would devalue the DC brand right?

 

[MightyDargon]

C'mon Zaslav, leave Aquaman 2 in its current slot. I dare you. And be sure to spend 200 million marketing it including having both Vin Diesel and a hologram of Paul Walker show up at its red carpet debut and proclaim it a better movie than Casablanca and Ran combined. Please do this. Don't punt it for Wonka or Dune or anything else.

[DAR]

7 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

The updated version of Moviepass sucks. After this weekend I'm cancelling it. This credit system is dumb.

They brought back movie pass?