Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[Bob Train]

In a post Disney+ world, it’s very difficult for any WDAS or Pixar movie to hit a billion. People don’t want to admit that Disney+ has had an effect but it’s the truth. 

 

Inside Out 2 probably won’t gross a billion because the first one was still over a hundred million away from a billion and this one has to compete with Disney+.

[robertman2]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

In a post Disney+ world, it’s very difficult for any WDAS or Pixar movie to hit a billion. People don’t want to admit that Disney+ has had an effect but it’s the truth. 

 

Inside Out 2 probably won’t gross a billion because the first one was still over a hundred million away from a billion and this one has to compete with Disney+.

people are pretty open about Disney+ having an effect lmao

 

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, YM! said:

I mean apart from Lightyear, the 2020s stuff has at least been pretty positive.

Yeah, people just ignore that Soul - Luca - Turning Red not only was all highly acclaimed by critics but also did gangsbusters on streaming, some of the most successful movies of all time in streaming actually.

 

The problem with Pixar never was lack of connection with their audiences (just Lightyear fall into this category). 
 

There’s no much reason to expect Elio to be bad, and while i personally also think these sequels are purely a commercial demand, they learn how to do this sequels. 
 

Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4 we’re all very well received despite their obvious fully commercial attempts. Inside Out 2 can very easily fall in the same category. 
 

If Elemental finishes it’s run with 400M, Elio manage to keep this ramping up and do ~500M and then IO2 explodes, i think by 2025 Pixar will be mostly recovered as a brand. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

Still feel like Turning Red would have done gangbusters in theaters.

Tbh if Elemental is looking at 140-150m, I think Soul would’ve done 300m, Luca around 200m and Turning Red within the 250m range.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah, people just ignore that Soul - Luca - Turning Red not only was all highly acclaimed by critics but also did gangsbusters on streaming, some of the most successful movies of all time in streaming actually.

 

The problem with Pixar never was lack of connection with their audiences (just Lightyear fall into this category). 
 

There’s no much reason to expect Elio to be bad, and while i personally also think these sequels are purely a commercial demand, they learn how to do this sequels. 
 

Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4 we’re all very well received despite their obvious fully commercial attempts. Inside Out 2 can very easily fall in the same category. 
 

If Elemental finishes it’s run with 400M, Elio manage to keep this ramping up and do ~500M and then IO2 explodes, i think by 2025 Pixar will be mostly recovered as a brand. 

I think IO2 has a lower ceiling than those 3. Personally expecting within the range of Monsters University. Think that a sequel not on par with the first can’t coast on nostalgia to help it. Will still do well enough though.

 

My only concern right now for Elio is release date. Beyond is moving sure but I don’t care about legacy or losing the spot, move it up a week or have KFP4 move back a week. Give it some breathing room.

[LegionWrex]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Tbh if Elemental is looking at 140-150m, I think Soul would’ve done 300m, Luca around 200m and Turning Red within the 250m range.

I think in a universe where the never pandemic never happened a theatrically released Soul would have gotten an A+ on Cinemascore. It would have had insane legs.

[YM!]

Just now, LegionWrex said:

I think in a universe where the never pandemic never happened a theatrically released Soul would have gotten an A+ on Cinemascore. It would have had insane legs.

Tbh I think Soul does a 100/300m run. Can see adults digging it but not doing as hot with kids.

[CJohn]

I need to see Soul and Luca.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I need to see Soul and Luca.

Reminder that the Top 100 Disney Movies countdown will start this October. 👀

 

Also, you lot have only a few hours, whatever is 11:59 at your time zone, to PM me your top 100 Warner Bros. movies. For more info, look here:

 

 

[LegionWrex]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I need to see Soul and Luca.

Great movies.

[Bob Train]

My prediction for Inside Out 2 is 90m OW / 300m DOM / 700m WW

 

I think Elio will do well for an original animated movie post-COVID

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

I never got the Soul love. This video touched on some of my issues with it:

 

[LegionWrex]

10 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

My prediction for Inside Out 2 is 90m OW / 300m DOM / 700m WW

 

I think Elio will do well for an original animated movie post-COVID

Elio is a wild card but Elemental has shown Pixar can still be leggy in the face of a bad OW. I think Elio will open higher then Elemental though, it's got a better release date (last animated film prior to it is The Tiger's Apprentice all the way back in January 2024) and would also be the first major family film since Tiger's Apprentice as well. Legs are a different matter as March is pretty packed with other stuff.

[toutvabien]

Well, Elemental is already showing signs of audiences unlearing the wait-to-stream behavior and if Disney doubles down on that with lengthy theatrical exclusivity for it, Wish and Elio, I think that will build great momentum for Inside Out 2 to utilize all its box office potential and play out like a sequel to a massively successful and beloved film would.

[MovieMan89]

53 minutes ago, YM! said:

I mean apart from Lightyear, the 2020s stuff has at least been pretty positive.

Brand relevancy and power is mainly my point. Quality is hard to count as a strength when everything keeps bombing. And I’d argue their quality has been pretty rocky overall compared to most of their history. Their best recent movies all got stuck on streaming, so there’s that too. 

[toutvabien]

I'm lucky to live somewhere where Luca and Turning Red both released in theaters. Got to watch Luca at an outdoor cinema in late July '21.

[MovieMan89]

Luca and TR are good movies, but I do think they miss that top tier special Pixar category they used to excel at. It was terrible how Disney treated them, but that said I don’t think either would have smashed the box office. Soul is maybe their best recent film, but that also would have been a very tough ask at the box office bc it’s pretty non-kid aimed. 

[ringedmortality]

I think there's a good chance Soul will remain the last great Pixar movie for a while.

 

Luca, Turning Red, and Elemental all feel like decent Dreamworks (or just any other animated studio) flicks. The high quality marker that used to come with Pixar probably won't be with them again for a long while.

[cannastop]

6 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

for obvious reasons Elemental will appeal to Koreans more than Japanese people

the obvious reason being...? The director is of Korean heritage and he did appearances in Korean media I guess.

 

But I think the best antecedent to Elemental is Zootopia. Blew up in South Korea, then it blew up in Japan. Same story with Frozen.

 

But since Disney Plus and other failures in Japan, it's more uncertain if the success can be repeated...

[YM!]

34 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

Elio is a wild card but Elemental has shown Pixar can still be leggy in the face of a bad OW. I think Elio will open higher then Elemental though, it's got a better release date (last animated film prior to it is The Tiger's Apprentice all the way back in January 2024) and would also be the first major family film since Tiger's Apprentice as well. Legs are a different matter as March is pretty packed with other stuff.

Tbh I doubt Tigers Apprentice won’t get Batgirl/Under the Boardwalk (the latter is finished but has no release date). It wasn’t even mentioned at CinemaCon or Annecy this year.