The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[WebSurfer]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Mutant Mayhem did have a similarly weird EA setup on its way to a $28mil Fri-Sun weekend. Had decent legs but feel like that might be tougher in the school season and with Wild Robot coming up for TFOne.

 

 

Yeah, I'm thinking there may be plenty of field trips in store with The Wild Robot for schools.

Edited Sunday at 03:12 PM by WebSurfer

[TheFlatLannister]

15 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What if its a scenario where reactions are poor? 

There is no floor, like when I said several months ago “$40M OW for the Marvels would not shock me”

 

anyways presales I currently have aren’t showing an acceleration or a collapse. It’s just flat right now 

[AnthonyJPHer]

22 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Mutant Mayhem did have a similarly weird EA setup on its way to a $28mil Fri-Sun weekend. Had decent legs but feel like that might be tougher in the school season and with Wild Robot coming up for TFOne.

 

 

I’m wondering if they can just coexist with each other. It’s kind of rare we have two animated movies in September releasing only a couple weeks apart. Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 coexisted well this summer, so perhaps Transformers One and The Wild Robot will too.

[vafrow]

27 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Isn’t this how the flash went last year? Huge early access showings but pitiful when it came to everything else?

 

I was only tracking a single theatre at that point on Flash, and it didn't have an EA showing, so I don't have the data. You'd have to see what you can find in the archived thread.

 

If you're looking for positive signs on TOne, Friday sales are looking very good. I don't track beyond previews as a general rule, but a quick count has Friday at 113 tickets sold, which is over 4x current Thursday sales. That's a better than average ratio, and lends itself to the idea that the EA shows have been taking up Thursday demand.

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I’m wondering if they can just coexist with each other. It’s kind of rare we have two animated movies in September releasing only a couple weeks apart. Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 coexisted well this summer, so perhaps Transformers One and The Wild Robot will too.

 

It feels similar to April 2022, with Sonic 2 and Bad Guys (a Paramount heavy IP kids film vs a DreamWorks kidlit animated). There was a week apart buffer, but they managed to coexist, but Sonic was more dominant. And Bad Guys had to really rely on legs to get close to the $100M. It did well, but not a smashing success.

 

If Wild Robot opens to the same $23M, I imagine the initial response may not be great.

[TheFlatLannister]

55 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Isn’t this how the flash went last year? Huge early access showings but pitiful when it came to everything else?

Flash had stronger presales than what Joker 2 is currently seeing. Flash actually had okay/good presales up til the final week where it collapsed. EA was also really strong if I remember correctly 

[AniNate]

If/Garfield had the same one week difference. For movies with much better buzz like these though I would not be satisfied with comparable box office results. I still feel like TFOne ought to have released in early August for optimal box office chances, but I also tend to subscribe to the truism that movies find their audience whenever they're released so I guess we'll find out. That long runway free of competition until Wicked may very well make up the difference.

[Ryan C]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Flash had stronger presales than what Joker 2 is currently seeing. Flash actually had okay/good presales up til the final week where it collapsed. EA was also really strong if I remember correctly 

 

Yeah, I remember EA screenings for The Flash doing great business. Same goes for the PLFs on the traditional Thursday previews. There was just a much bigger rush (amongst fans) to go see The Flash compared to Joker 2. 

 

The only problem is that The Flash did not have good word-of-mouth from audiences, which killed any chances of it legging out after a disappointing opening. Like you said, the bad signs weren't really there until the final week and there wasn't any acceleration within pre-sales. 

 

The worst part is that even if Joker 2 does have a much better final week than The Flash, word-of-mouth will determine its fate and it's most likely not gonna be good if the movie is as divisive as it is. 

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Flash actually had okay/good presales up til the final week where it collapsed

Isn’t that kind of already happening with TFone pre-sales though? Or am I misreading things? 

[Boxofficerules]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Lionsgate is clearly just offloading their already meager slate this year. Good chance A24 finishes higher for 2024 with a few more titles that could catch on with mainstream audiences (We Live in Time, Heretic, Babygirl) on deck at this point.

Lionsgate seemed to spend a lot on marketing Imaginary. I wonder if that movie didn't work out for them.

I find it hard to feel too bad for them, I always remember the reason they never green lit a sequel to My Bloody Valentine was because "we don't make movies like THAT anymore".  What, ones that make money? Clearly.

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

If/Garfield had the same one week difference. For movies with much better buzz like these though I would not be satisfied with comparable box office results. I still feel like TFOne ought to have released in early August for optimal box office chances, but I also tend to subscribe to the truism that movies find their audience whenever they're released so I guess we'll find out. That long runway free of competition until Wicked may very well make up the difference.

I’m pretty sure Paramount got cold feet after the window transformers RoTB was stuck in last year. As far as I’m aware, they took mid September as the date for TFOne specifically because they thought there’d be no real cramped contest this time. 

[iEnri]

Genuine question, which one was higher at the same point now, Joker 2 or The Marvels? 

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Joker: Folie a Deux T-19

 

Tickets sold: 195

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Joker: Folie a Deux T-18

 

Tickets sold: 200 (+5)

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Edited Sunday at 08:34 PM by filmpalace

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

Genuine question, which one was higher at the same point now, Joker 2 or The Marvels? 

 

My market is an outlier due to an overindex of Marvels, but currently, Joker 2 is at 25% of Marvels. 

 

Note: I just discovered a formula error on Marvels, so this doesn't correspond to what I reported this morning, where I was using the wrong figures for Marvels, and overstating it's amount. It was looking worse for Joker due to the error.

[iEnri]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My market is an outlier due to an overindex of Marvels, but currently, Joker 2 is at 25% of Marvels. 

 

Note: I just discovered a formula error on Marvels, so this doesn't correspond to what I reported this morning, where I was using the wrong figures for Marvels, and overstating it's amount. It was looking worse for Joker due to the error.

Wow really, so then I don't think there is anyone tracking here that would put it above The Marvels now. So even if Joker stays healthy without decreasing, it is still pretty bad regardless

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Having watched Wild Robot, I believe WoM will be VERY good for that one...

[Tinalera]

Joker 2

Thurs Oct 3 Fri Oct 4 (t-19)

Toronto and Montreal\

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	33	157	5608	5765	0.0272
	Fri	4	39	158	7999	8157	0.0193
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	wed
Montreal	Thurs	4	22	88	6304	6392	0.0137
	Fri	4	31	105	9136	9241	0.0113

 

 

Didnt get any of the Mon or Wed Preview days. 

 

19 days out kind of hard to say how things are going. There really hasnt been much promotion (that Ive seen around this area, others may vary). Kind of quiet really.

[WebSurfer]

22 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Having watched Wild Robot, I believe WoM will be VERY good for that one...

Is it out in Brazil?

[ThatWaluigiDude]

21 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

Is it out in Brazil?

Is in theaters this week

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

Wow really, so then I don't think there is anyone tracking here that would put it above The Marvels now. So even if Joker stays healthy without decreasing, it is still pretty bad regardless

 

I tried to look through the thread back to when Marvels to see if I could find others with data thats tracking this now, but no like to like comparisons jumped out, but I didn't look too hard.

 

MCU is usually the prototypical front loaded property for advance sales, so lagging at this stage isn't the end of the world. Its probably not going to catch up on mine, but it can close the gap. But we'll watch the overall comps and see where it goes.