The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[PlatnumRoyce]

 

Some good news for Joker 2 - Movio/Vista Group (third party who analyzes moviegoing based on loyalty(/credit card?) data shared by exhibitors). As of Monday they saw Joker 2 tracking at 90% of Joker 1 and 50% above the most recent Apes leading to an estimate of a ~85/86M OW (source - "behind the screens" podcast). They've had some good hits on the tracking they've announced over the past few months. .

Probably too high (especially because we can see very bad word of mouth emerging from other countries who already opened) but it's a legitimate source that's worth keeping in mind. 

7 hours ago, M37 said:

So IM hinges on one specific question: from where are we going to see the largest audience drop-off: from fans or casuals?

Typically when a CBM (Flash, Marvels) goes low, it’s due largely to becoming a fan (usually male) dominated audience, not drawing in casuals. So we see lower walk-up rates and IMs, usually weaker legs (see also Furiosa)

 

But for this movie specifically, that may not necessarily be the case. The decision to include Gaga as Harley, with a musical twist, may be turning off typical fans, while - along with the original breaking free of its CBM genre and having good WOM - could be keeping the more casuals intrigued 

 

tl;dr - I expect walk-ups to be decent, IM to be OK, not fully crash as we’ve seen with prior underperformers. But that possibility still does remain, especially with the warning light of lower Sat pre-sales 

on movio's dataset, you see "Very frequent moviegoers at 13% versus 2% for the original film" low percentage of >2 ticket purchases; heavy PLF; 69% male (v 71% previous film). So it does sound like "casuals" are dropping off faster in presales (I think Joker 1 was able to attract a larger prestige-y audience [but of course pandemic disjuncture is a relevant factor])
 

Edited 2 hours ago by PlatnumRoyce

[Flip]

15 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-1) 

20 showtimes/983 tix sold (+140)

 

.32x Deadpool 3 (T-1) [12.32m]

1.46x Beetlejuice 2 (T-1) [14.31m]
1.93x AQP Day One (T-1) [13.12m]
3.02x Trap (T-1) [6.64m]

 

Decent day, the inflated comps dropped but that was expected. With good walkups $7.5m Thurs is possible but rn unlikely

Joker 2 Previews (T-0) 

23 showtimes/1147 tix sold (+164)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-0) [???]

1.32x Beetlejuice 2 (T-0) [12.94m]
1.63x AQP Day One (T-0) [11.08m]
2.98x Trap (T-0) [6.56m]

 

Bad final day but that was to be expected. I’ll predict something like 6.9-7.2m

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL Local (Thur) (9 showings)

 

JOKER 2: 324/2474

 

COMPS:

Joker: $5.67 (R)

Black Widow: $8.58m

Birds of Prey: $8.19m (R)
The Suicide Sq: $8.47m (R)

The Flash: $8.36m

GOTG 3: $8.43m
The Marvels: $9.84m
Deadpool & W: $5.55m (R)

Dr. Strange 2: $4.55m

Furiosa; $8.21m (R)

 

There's a grouping in the the low 8's but also films in the 4.5- 5.7 range including Joker that I just couldn't toss.

Full avg: $7.585

 

Wed to Thur % jumps

Joker: 40%

Joker 2: 69%

Venom 2: 63.6%

BW:  52.76%

BOP: 56.6%

TSS: 93.6%

Flash: 69.5%

GOTG 3: 37.3%

Marvels: 72.5%

D & W: 45.56%

DS 2: 27.2%

Furiosa:  81.5%

 

Joker 2 was less front loaded from Mon on, then Wed to Thur than Joker 2 which was heavily pre-sold.  I looked at the Wed to Thur jumps to see if there was an correlation with later walk up business on Thur but with TSS, Marvels, Furiosa and the Flash being the highest and GOTG 3 and D&W being among the lowest I'd say not really.

[vafrow]

Walk up rates are 31% for me for Joker as of 3:00 pm. That's on the better side, in line with GxK and Beetlejuice surprisingly. Again, nothing crazy, but not discouraging.

[Shawn Robbins]

As hinted recently, a bit of personal and professional news to open the new quarter with: I'm incredibly proud to share that I've joined Fandango as Director of Analytics, Movies!

 

My role started over the summer and it's been an absolute honor and a joy getting to know my new work family.

 

To all those who have been and continue supporting BOT, your backing has meant the world to me.

 

I'll still be managing BOT (albeit, with some natural evolution over time) alongside my new role thanks to Fandango's gracious and forward-thinking leadership and vision. I've long admired their passion for cinema and for driving the growth of our beloved industry in these ever-changing times.

 

There will be a lot more to come in the days and weeks ahead, but I want to add a special shout-out to the trackers and the entire forum community who've been so supportive of BOT and myself in recent times and over these many years. I'll still be around, just perhaps a bit more of a fly on the wall at times.

 

Thanks to everyone here for your contributions and continuing to make BOT what it is.

 

Shawn

[filmpalace]

22 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Joker: Folie a Deux T-1

 

Tickets sold: 636 (+111)

Growth: 21%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

 

Manually counting the tickets for this is getting exhausting 😅 

Tomorrow, I’ll throw every comp I have so far at it and try to make a projection.

Joker: Folie a Deux T-0

 

Tickets sold: 761 (+125)

Growth: 20%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

 

3,82x The Wild Robot (T-0) – 7,6M

4,69x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 6,1M

19,51x Never Let Go (T-0) – 7,0M

 

Not a spectacular finish over here. Most comps point towards ~7M, which is similar to what other trackers are seeing and what I'll predict as well.

Edited 3 hours ago by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

On 10/1/2024 at 11:06 PM, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-23

 

Tickets sold: 107

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

Don't have comps yet, but this seems like a solid start for something that will have most of its sales in the final days (according to those that tracked the previous Venom movies)

Venom: The Last Dance T-21
 

Tickets sold (exc. fan event): 155 (+48)

Fan event tickets sold: 75

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

Forgot to check the fan event 2 days ago, so I can’t add the growth % for this update. Good increase from last update tho.

Edited 3 hours ago by filmpalace

[Opium]

8 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

I agree with this sentiment in theory, but before the Kimmel appearance, Gaga was already attempting to focus more attention on J2  by releasing her surprise new "companion" album Harlequin last Friday, and that seems to be significantly underperforming. (Harlequin is separate from the Joker 2 soundtrack album.) 

 

Hits Daily Double's Tuesday album sales estimates for this week so far have Harlequin outside the Top 10 albums of the week and barely in the top 20 with just predicted 26,000 total activity units (the metric used to rank the Billboard 200 albums these days). That is lower than this week's sales activity of years-old albums by SZA, Zach Bryan and Morgan Wallen, all of which are sitting above Harlequin on the same chart. And for whatever the comparison is worth, Katy Perry's new album sold 48,000 units last week, though it was a more conventional pop album with heavy pre-release marketing. HDD does mention that physical sales from Gaga's website and her Kimmel appearance still have a chance to boost it, but still, that low an initial estimate for a Gaga album kind of floored me.

 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=342851&title=SMILE%2521-IT%25E2%2580%2599S-THE-TOP-20

 

Sorry, I'm not meaning to derail this thread, but Harlequin sales do seem like a caution sign alongside the road to the film's release.

 

'Harlequin' is an album of jazz standards for the majority, covers of 50 years old songs and it's not a studio album, it's not even sold in stores, just her website, it doesn't make any sense making a comparison with SZA or Katy Perry last studio albums, you need to use 'Chromatica' which opened with almost 300k sales.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-21
 

Tickets sold (exc. fan event): 155 (+48)

Fan event tickets sold: 75

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

Forgot to check the fan event 2 days ago, so I can’t add the growth % for this update. Good increase from last update tho.

Good news then! 🙂

 

Btw, I don’t think there’d be any problem if you counted both Venom Fan Events and general showings altogether.I mean Venom Fan Event showings are part of Thursday previews. Basically, for some reason, Sony is calling “Fan Event” their IMAX 5pm Thursday showings.

 

For example, If I’m not mistaken, @TheFlatLannister Florida tracking is including Venom Fan Event and general showings given that both are part of Thursday previews.

[Shawn Robbins]

7 hours ago, Flopped said:

 

Tragic. Do you know how many screens Substance will be on this weekend? 

Haven't seen yet, sorry!