Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[abracadabra1998]

6 minutes ago, Eric the Turtle said:

 

 

Mini SK-esque breakout incoming?

[Issac Newton]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Mini SK-esque breakout incoming?

Nah, it's normal for Family film to increase on Sunday. Additionally, already a local Film is playing ahead of Elemental with similar demography -

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Eric is Anxious]

I will say re: Wonka and Color Purple moving that I don't think either will happen. Could be me not really grasping how long the strikes will go (although last I checked the actors are more likely to end their strike sooner? Could be wrong), but Wonka looks set to do massive numbers and while I know some people hate this site, Color Purple is doing a lot better on The Quorum than I expected. Plus unlike a lot of other awards contenders this year, WB has A-listers like Oprah, Quincy Jones, and Steven Spielberg to put onto the press tour that can help sell the movie. Could very well change, but I'm cautiously optimistic on those two. Frankly, Aquaman seems like the best candidate to dump in case one of their March movies has to be delayed.

[abracadabra1998]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Amazing drop, I feel like A24 does have some built-in fandom that shows up OW, plus it's horror. A 40% drop is a testament to the great WOM.

 

Where will this end up in A24 DOM rankings?

[Eric is Anxious]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

Saw it on Friday and I'm really glad this is looking to get some legs. Helps also this is one of A24's more conventional releases. 30M is locked and it's already going to be in the top 5 for A24, but I really hope this does some crazy stuff in August and gets into the top 3 somehow. Hereditary is #3 at the moment, so it's tricky, but I guess not completely impossible.

[ringedmortality]

9 minutes ago, Eric the Turtle said:

while I know some people hate this site, Color Purple is doing a lot better on The Quorum than I expected.

Wasn’t the same thing said about Haunted Mansion

[Issac Newton]

8 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Where will this end up in A24 DOM rankings?

10th place at DOM // 17th WW

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/theatrical-distributors/a24

 

[Eric is Anxious]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

Wasn’t the same thing said about Haunted Mansion

One or two people said that, but again, as I explained last week, Quorum's metrics indicated a 20M opening. When a film has about a 55% awareness like Haunted Mansion, that represents about a 90% chance of reaching 20M and a 70% chance of 30M. So yeah, HM opened to what was expected, if not a touch lower. It's the same numbers Meg 2 hit in fact and it's set to open around the same as Haunted Mansion. There's a correlation and I've studied this long enough that I feel confident on this stuff. The data and numbers are there.

 

[Eric is Anxious]

16 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Amazing drop, I feel like A24 does have some built-in fandom that shows up OW, plus it's horror. A 40% drop is a testament to the great WOM.

 

Where will this end up in A24 DOM rankings?

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/theatrical-distributors/a24

 

This is the current top 10

1	2022	Everything Everywhere All At Once	$77,169,474
2	2019	Uncut Gems	$50,023,780
3	2017	Lady Bird	$48,958,273
4	2018	Hereditary	$44,069,456
5	2016	Moonlight	$27,854,931
6	2019	Midsommar	$27,426,363
7	2015	Ex Machina	$25,440,971
8	2016	The Witch	$25,138,705
9	2017	The Disaster Artist	$21,120,616
10	2023	Talk To Me	$17,810,920

 

TTM should at least match Hereditary and is going to be in the top 5 by the end of next week. All that really depends left is just how far it can go if it can reach Lady Bird (didn't realize that was the #3 A24 movie and not Hereditary) or Uncut Gems. Those are tricky, but not totally impossible if the cards fall the right way.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Eric the Turtle said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/theatrical-distributors/a24

 

This is the current top 10

1	2022	Everything Everywhere All At Once	$77,169,474
2	2019	Uncut Gems	$50,023,780
3	2017	Lady Bird	$48,958,273
4	2018	Hereditary	$44,069,456
5	2016	Moonlight	$27,854,931
6	2019	Midsommar	$27,426,363
7	2015	Ex Machina	$25,440,971
8	2016	The Witch	$25,138,705
9	2017	The Disaster Artist	$21,120,616
10	2023	Talk To Me	$17,810,920

 

TTM should at least match Hereditary and is going to be in the top 5 by the end of next week. All that really depends left is just how far it can go if it can reach Lady Bird (didn't realize that was the #3 A24 movie and not Hereditary) or Uncut Gems. Those are tricky, but not totally impossible if the cards fall the right way.

Hereditary already feels like a stretch. The movie's run ends on September 7. I think it ends just below 40M total.

[kayumanggi]

48 minutes ago, Eric the Turtle said:

 

 

Please do not post Luiz's numbers here because someone said his tweets shouldn't be followed. 🙄 The same poster posts ERC numbers which have INCORRECT numbers because of his stupid math. 🙄

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Issac Newton]

¥320M / $2.26M Start - 5th at Opening Weekend.

 

— 2nd Biggest Start for Post-CoVid-19 Disney Animation 

— 2nd Biggest Start for Post-CoVid-19 Pixar Release

— Behind 2022 "LightYear" (¥383M/$2.7M)

Edited August 6, 2023 by Issac Newton

[kayumanggi]

@baumer, I think SOF finishes with 180M - 190M.

[kayumanggi]

 

[TMP]

49 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

After seeing this movie, I feel like RuckaRucka on Street Fighter is gonna be like Raimi on the first Spider-Man - could be a legit big thing, especially with Legendary behind it (makes WB looks even worse for severing ties since Sony could get a new big franchise with it now)

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

Maybe a 168M - 173M finish for DEAD RECKONING I.

[kayumanggi]