Renaissance | Beyonce Concert Movie | Releasing December 1st

[Jake4]

13 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

Could. My bet is around $25M but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was $18M or something.

Yeah i don't see this doing below 20m. I also think the premiere in both london and la will drive up walk up ticket sales. That is smart of her to do that. That in itself is good promo

[harry713]

35 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

Yeah i don't see this doing below 20m. I also think the premiere in both london and la will drive up walk up ticket sales. That is smart of her to do that. That in itself is good promo

 

Under 20m would be what, maybe 700k tickets given the atp? I think demand will be higher than that over OW. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by harry713

[XXR & Friends]

45 minutes ago, harry713 said:

 

Under 20m would be what, maybe 700k tickets given the atp? I think demand will be higher than that over OW. 

I think all the data points to $18-22M but it seems like people don’t want it to be that low so they’re throwing $30M+ guesses out as a wishful number. IMO, my $25M target is on the high side. We know it had first day sales of around ~$6.5M and I’m just not sure why we should expect the pattern to be markedly different from Eras. Slightly different sure, but not enough to hit some of the numbers I’m seeing.

[Jake4]

13 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I think all the data points to $18-22M but it seems like people don’t want it to be that low so they’re throwing $30M+ guesses out as a wishful number. IMO, my $25M target is on the high side. We know it had first day sales of around ~$6.5M and I’m just not sure why we should expect the pattern to be markedly different from Eras. Slightly different sure, but not enough to hit some of the numbers I’m seeing.

True. I don't see it doing close to 30m as well. I just think whatever number it is, its going to be 20m or slightly over 20m OW.

[Jake4]

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm						ATP	$26.81
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-36	18	59	5	432	12,627	3.42%	1.17%
T-35	18	59	4	436	12,627	3.45%	0.93%
T-34	18	59	0	436	12,627	3.45%	0.00%
T-33	18	59	0	436	12,627	3.45%	0.00%
T-32	18	57	7	443	11,663	3.80%	1.61%
MTC1	7	19	+3	300	3,910	7.67%	1.01%
MTC2	4	21	+4	35	3,975	0.88%	12.90%
MTC3	3	12	0	53	2,589	2.05%	0.00%
Other	4	5	0	55	1,189	4.63%	0.00%
T-0 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Thursday)				0.494x	=	$1.38m	$1.66m
T-32 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Friday)				0.041x	=	$1.43m	$1.72m

 

*+20%

 

PLF: 54.63%

 

Unless I am mistaken a couple of shows have given way to Godzilla instead

 

What does this mean? thanks

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

What does this mean? thanks

 

What does what mean?

[Jake4]

2 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

What does what mean?

"unless I am mistaken a couple of shows have given way to Godzilla instead"

 

Sorry i was not clear. 

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

"unless I am mistaken a couple of shows have given way to Godzilla instead"

 

Sorry i was not clear. 

It means some shows that didn’t have any sales were taken away and those times where switched over to Godzilla Minus One.

[Jake4]

5 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

It means some shows that didn’t have any sales were taken away and those times where switched over to Godzilla Minus One.

is that bad for renaissance?

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

is that bad for renaissance?

It doesn't really matter. It will have plenty of shows for its demand which is not that high.

[Hilts]

4 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

is that bad for renaissance?

 

Sorry didn't get round to replying earlier but XXR covered it.

 

It was only a couple of shows for 1 theatre I track so in isolation it's no big deal, just wanted to point it out. It is performing weaker in the region I track compared to Eras given the demographics so not too surprising. Plus we are still a month away from release so undoubtedly the number of show times will increase again as we get closer to opening.

[Taylor89]

6 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

is that bad for renaissance?

 

Eh it hasn't been doing very well in this chain. Her movie is going to do what her tour was doing. great in some cities and medicore in other cities. lol

[Jake4]

39 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

Eh it hasn't been doing very well in this chain. Her movie is going to do what her tour was doing. great in some cities and medicore in other cities. lol

Got you..i still see at least 20m ow? i am thinking 22m to be exact. What do you think?

[Jake4]

42 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Sorry didn't get round to replying earlier but XXR covered it.

 

It was only a couple of shows for 1 theatre I track so in isolation it's no big deal, just wanted to point it out. It is performing weaker in the region I track compared to Eras given the demographics so not too surprising. Plus we are still a month away from release so undoubtedly the number of show times will increase again as we get closer to opening.

Thank you. What do you predict for the OW?

[Taylor89]

3 hours ago, Jake4 said:

Got you..i still see at least 20m ow? i am thinking 22m to be exact. What do you think?

 

We just have wait and see.

[Hilts]

10 hours ago, Jake4 said:

Thank you. What do you predict for the OW?

 

Well since my data is under-indexing it's tricky for me to predict at this time. We are only halfway through the pre-sale cycle and if walkups are even just slightly better than Eras (which should not be difficult) I don't see why it couldn't reach $4m-5m previews / $20m-$25m OW.

[Jake4]

i just heard wish is doing over 50m opening weekend, i fear it might overtake renaissance film in its second weekend

[imbruglia]

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

AMC Theatres Distribution

December 1, 2023

Opening Weekend Range: $27M-$36M
Domestic Total Range: $40M-$80M

PROS:

• As Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour recently showed with its stellar $92.8 million bow, there is significant demand for alternative content in movie theaters—especially during a period when tentpoles and high-profile films aren’t otherwise filling up screens.

• Beyoncé commands a strong fan base that has driven very encouraging pre-sales in recent weeks, leaping past all of November’s releases in overall volume so far. Weekday play, unlike the weekend-only engagements of Eras Tour, could help multipliers.

• The film will not only benefit from a premium screen footprint, including Imax, and minimal competition for two weekends, but an average ticket price currently projected to be north of 20 dollars per ticket.

CONS:

• As Eras Tour proved, concert films cannot be weighed in an apples-to-apples manner with traditional films when tracking box office potential. Swift’s film was notably front-loaded in the pre-sales window, and that’s a fair expectation to have of Renaissance.

• Though incredibly influential and popular in her own right, Beyoncé’s fanbase is not expected to be as rabid as Swift’s in terms of driving demand. Nevertheless, Renaissance still has a chance at snagging the second biggest concert film opening in history.

• Following a string of female-driven films in November, competition will be worth keeping in mind as Disney’s Wish, in particular, hopes to prove its staying power.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[imbruglia]

Es Devlin

The Renaissance tour was such a success; what was the creation of that set like?

That particular artist, Beyoncé, is such a renaissance woman. She is a complete perfectionist. She is a conductor of energy; she sees that as her role, that’s what she was put on this earth to do. A performer’s clothes are their armour and for her to get over that protective device to showcase young designers’ work is so generous of spirit, and a brilliant way to culturally interweave.

 

We were making that show over many, many years. It really only came together quite late. I said, “Well, why don’t we just do a hole?” She and I relate to each other quite a lot, in that we’re both working mothers. A lot of the work she’d be making during the pandemic was about the tension between mothering her art and mothering her children. This idea of a hole: the hole within you, the hole outside, the giving of the hole, the receiving – all of them, it’s endless! And this combination of the geometry of the frame and the circularity of the hole in the frame. She and I both just respond to that.

 

She doesn’t get tired; it’s extraordinary. When we were rehearsing the show, me and Fatima Robinson, the legendary hip-hop choreographer, would finish the rehearsal… at 2:30am, so by the time we got out of the venue, it was 3am. We’re in the cab going back to our hotel and Bey was texting Fatima going, “Right, shall we do notes?” We’re going to bed!

In the book you explain that for the Renaissance tour, Beyoncé’s references ranged from rodeo culture to redlining. How did those conversations start?

Redlining, I had only learnt about through Compton [Super Bowl Half Time Show]. Beyoncé had been thinking about that a lot herself, completely independently. Her mother, Miss Tina, grew up in Galveston on that kind of funny spit of land in Texas. Interestingly enough, Florence Welch, her great grandparents came from Galveston as well – obviously big, white, wealthy oil barons who had a big house. They both come from the same place, but obviously a completely different experience. Beyoncé’s mother, as a Black girl, wasn’t even allowed on the beach. While, you know, the stories in Florence’s family are about horses being trapped in the stables when the flood came. And Beyoncé’s very curious. She’s a big researcher, she loves poetry. She wants to dive in and she’s very hungry for meaning. She’s got kids; she doesn’t want to bother unless it means something.

Beyoncé was interested in country; I think she had had a really bad experience at a country music award show, and she wanted to research its African-American roots. She discovered that 50 per cent of cowboys were Black, in the 19th and early 20th century, and country music, of course, has been largely appropriated. She wanted to reappropriate Americana and country music from a Black perspective, hence the cowboys and why they are wearing red. They are her eliding those two ideas of redlining in those towns and the cowboys. She made a series of extraordinary films during the lockdown [not] out yet.

 

How Es Devlin Set The Stage For Beyonce’s Renaissance, The Compton Super Bowl, And Her Galactic New Book | British Vogue

[harry713]

It's definitely the most impressive stage design I've ever seen in person.