Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[grim22]

11 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

The downfall of superhero box office in the span of one year is still utterly astonishing. Ant-Man 3 really killed a whole-ass genre in one foul swoop. At least when comedy movies died, it was a gradual thing nobody even noticed until it was too late.

Jonathan Majors said "If i am going down, I am taking everyone with me"

[filmlover]

This year was definitely lacking a lot of mid-sized hits that have powered the box office in the past. 2022 had Everything Everywhere All at Once, Dog, The Lost City, Elvis, The Black Phone, Where the Crawdads Sing, Nope, Bullet Train, Smile, Ticket to Paradise, etc. all making respectable amounts of cash on different levels and didn't fall under the types of titles that would elicit manufactured "killing cinema" handwringing. In 2023, the closest movie to fall under that umbrella was...Sound of Freedom, a movie that largely drew a crowd that wants zero to do with Hollywood (thus, don't expect the industry to try and court an audience that clearly isn't captivated as a result) and likely haven't stepped foot inside a movie theater in eons (and have no plans to again in the foreseeable future). Something like Oppenheimer doesn't count because any movie with that much talent involved always comes with high expectations. It just happened to do better than what most felt was its ceiling.

 

Next year's not looking to be much better either in that regard. The minor sign of hope after the pandemic is quickly wearing off.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Just got out of Napoleon. Liked it but I definitely think some of the WOM comes from how the film was marketed. As in, it was presented as a historical epic when it’s really more of a black comedy. Or in other terms, they sold Ridley Scott in Gladiator mode when it’s more him in The Counselor mode. Not saying the reception would have been much better if the trailers were more honest but I do get the sense some audience members might have felt misled.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

14 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

If it makes it to Christmas without losing too many screens, it could get a second wind as some films do. This suddenly became a pretty interesting one to track for totals, especially since it seems to be doing well overseas too.

Literally Where? It flopped in Asia and had a lackluster/bad opening in most Euorpean countries with little to no competition, and there is no thanksgiving here so it is bound to drop hard (not to mention that it has also opened on wed in most big european markets last week).

I just can't understand why everyone is going overboard on a decent North american hold in a festive long weekend from a very soft opener...it's projected to drop 30% out of a small 45 M opening, it's not a miracle or anything.

But I guess in desperate times grasping at straws is the only thing one can do to remain positive.

I mean, are we really trying to spin a 100 M blockbuster ending at 250-300 MM WW (in the best case scenario, that is) in a success story?

 

 

[CJohn]

THG actually won True Wednesday lmao. Disney is over.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Literally Where? It flopped in Asia and had a lackluster/bad opening in most Euorpean countries with little to no competition, and there is no thanksgiving here so it is bound to drop hard (not to mention that it has also opened on wed in most big european markets last week).

I just can't understand why everyone is going overboard on a decent North american hold in a festive long weekend from a very soft opener...it's projected to drop 30% out of a small 45 M opening, it's not a miracle or anything.

But I guess in desperate times grasping at straws is the only thing one can do to remain positive.

I mean, are we really trying to spin a 100 M blockbuster ending at 250-300 MM WW (in the best case scenario, that is) in a success story?

 

 

300M WW on a 95M budgeted movie is a pretty good number.

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This year was definitely lacking a lot of mid-sized hits that have powered the box office in the past. 2022 had Everything Everywhere All at Once, Dog, The Lost City, Elvis, The Black Phone, Where the Crawdads Sing, Nope, Bullet Train, Smile, Ticket to Paradise, etc. all making respectable amounts of cash on different levels and didn't fall under the types of titles that would elicit manufactured "killing cinema" handwringing. In 2023, the closest movie to fall under that umbrella was...Sound of Freedom, a movie that largely drew a crowd that wants zero to do with Hollywood (thus, don't expect the industry to try and court an audience that clearly isn't captivated as a result) and likely haven't stepped foot inside a movie theater in eons (and have no plans to again in the foreseeable future). Something like Oppenheimer doesn't count because any movie with that much talent involved always comes with high expectations. It just happened to do better than what most felt was its ceiling.

 

Next year's not looking to be much better either in that regard. The minor sign of hope after the pandemic is quickly wearing off.

Yeah, this year has more films over 50m - but it was kind of a quantity thing than any surprise breakouts. More sequels and franchise films that disappointed enough to fall in that range. Def missing a Dog or Crawdads type.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Literally Where? It flopped in Asia and had a lackluster/bad opening in most Euorpean countries with little to no competition, and there is no thanksgiving here so it is bound to drop hard (not to mention that it has also opened on wed in most big european markets last week).

I just can't understand why everyone is going overboard on a decent North american hold in a festive long weekend from a very soft opener...it's projected to drop 30% out of a small 45 M opening, it's not a miracle or anything.

But I guess in desperate times grasping at straws is the only thing one can do to remain positive.

I mean, are we really trying to spin a 100 M blockbuster ending at 250-300 MM WW (in the best case scenario, that is) in a success story?

 

 

Yes. Because that is objectively a success story.

[Cmasterclay]

I think that what happens from the start of COVID through the 2024 election and beyond will be looked at in history as a major realingment of our economy, culture, and way of life, and while this is obviously a box office forum, I think it's myopic to look exclusively at the struggle of movie theaters over a bigger picture of just how much the ground of history is shifting under our feet right now. We have no real idea where everything ends up.

[filmlover]

Unlike the majority of movies this month, Hunger Games is locked to end up making a profit for Lionsgate even if it's not a massive one or as much of a success the studio probably hoped it would be (Fantastic Beasts 1 was likely the goal when they gave it the green light since that finished with a total not far off, not accounting inflation, from the lowest-grossing Harry Potter movies with none of the original cast, while this seems on track to make half of previous franchise low Mockingjay Part 2). Gotta accept your wins where you can find them.

[TomThomas]

19 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Just got out of Napoleon. Liked it but I definitely think some of the WOM comes from how the film was marketed. As in, it was presented as a historical epic when it’s really more of a black comedy. Or in other terms, they sold Ridley Scott in Gladiator mode when it’s more him in The Counselor mode. Not saying the reception would have been much better if the trailers were more honest but I do get the sense some audience members might have felt misled.

Nonsense, The Counselor is a much better movie, I wish it was Ridley in The Counselor mode, but it was Ridley in House of Gucci mode: grey and brown filter, a lot of humor, awkward sex scenes and choppy editing at times.

 

After watching Napoleon, I think all reports about this movie being a comedy are overblown. There's definitely more humor and funny moments than in other Ridley's epics, but it still has serious moments and it's still historical epic about rise and fall.

Edited November 23, 2023 by TomThomas

[Cmasterclay]

It's all been downhill for our culture since this moment.

 

 

[Borobudur]

13 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

But I guess in desperate times grasping at straws is the only thing one can do to remain positive.

I mean, are we really trying to spin a 100 M blockbuster ending at 250-300 MM WW (in the best case scenario, that is) in a success story?

 

 

Do we really need to spin when it is a clear success? 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

23 minutes ago, CJohn said:

300M WW on a 95M budgeted movie is a pretty good number.

 

21 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Yes. Because that is objectively a success story.

 

If, (and that's a pretty big If, that relies heavily on the way the movie will perform in Japan) it will manage to get close to 300 M, then maybe we can say that it is a small success, as it will have had a decent return of investment margin (something like 1.3 dollars on a 1 dollar spent) but if its total tally ends at around 250 M WW like its projected to, then it will simply recoup the budget. That isn't a sucess story in my book.

Let's also remember that this isn't disney, so there is no "but it will boost merchandising sales, and the theme parks" excuse here... but then again in a year where almost every big movie flopped, something recouping its budget might as well be seen as a success. But that's just telling on how depressing the current state of B.O. and cinema is.

Edited November 23, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[toutvabien]

We could be witnessing the start of a Pixar revival era and a WDAS flop era (other than Frozen 3, Frozen 4 and Zootopia 2).

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think I called out Wish quite early in presales when projections were optimistic. I just did not see anything special about its presales.  Its presales skewed discount tuesday and also specific theaters(Disney Orlando) where Disney movies tend to over index. At this point original animation is not easy sell that you can call a breakout weeks before release. They need uber strong reviews and audience reaction to break out. Let us see how Inside Out 2 does next year. For now I am optimistic on the movie(it is my current bet to win 2024). 

 

Even orlando which is very Disney friendly, the presales were meh which was an alarming sign

[Felipe]

11 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

 

If, (and that's a pretty big If, that relies heavily on the way the movie will perform in Japan) it will manage to get close to 300 M, then maybe we can say that it is a small success, as it will have had a decent return of investment margin (something like 1.3 dollars on a 1 dollar spent) but if its total tally ends at around 250 M WW like its projected to, then it will simply recoup the budget. That isn't a sucess story in my book.

Let's also remember that this isn't disney, so there is no "but it will boost merchandising sales, and the theme parks" excuse here... but then again in a year where almost every big movie flopped, something recouping its budget might as well be seen as a success. But that's just telling on how depressing the current status of B.O. and cinema is.

300M is locked

[filmlover]

Best question: what are everyone's movie plans for this long holiday weekend?

 

The Holdovers, Thanksgiving, Napoleon, and Wish (albeit with lowered expectations) for me Friday through Sunday.

[TheFlatLannister]

THG BOSS is a success. Nothing groundbreaking or like how it was during its peak, but a success nonetheless

[DInky]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Best question: what are everyone's movie plans for this long holiday weekend?

 

The Holdovers, Thanksgiving, Napoleon, and Wish (albeit with lowered expectations) for me Friday through Sunday.

 

I'm seeing The Marvels again (not joking, btw).