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Best Picture predictions 2024

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Jackman might be the only host in the last 20 years or so that had people yelling "encore!" by the time the ceremony was over. Bringing him back solo would be a massive get, pairing him up with Reynolds would be an even bigger one.

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Last predictions before the fall fest run:

 

Anora (NEON)

Complete Unknown (SEARCHLIGHT)

Conclave (FOCUS)

Dune 2 (WB)

Gladiator II (PARAMOUNT)

Nickel Boys (MGM)

Piano Lesson (NETFLIX)

Real Pain (SEARCHLIGHT)

Saturday Night (SONY)

Sing Sing (A24)

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ALT:

Challengers (MGM/AMAZON)- didn't explode at box office, the studio will have Nickel Boys but should play well with the industry/guilds (WGA, ACE, etc)

Emilia Perez (NETFLIX)- reviews are all over the place but Cannes loved, could play well to international voters

Joker 2 (WB)- again?

 

NOT FEELING:

Blitz (APPLE)

Queer- still no distributor, probably highbrow/sexually explicit

 

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I'd predict Anora to win. It's already won the Palme with a jury including industry peers. It's Neon. It's a nice little underdog by an indie director that's never had an Academy breakout. It feels like one of the few true crowdpleasers this year that'll play broadly (should place top 3 at TIFF).

 

Sing Sing has made less than 1m and would need serious resurgence from A24 come fall after the festivals throw even more contenders into the mix. 

 

Conclave feels something that peaks at Telluride and isn't exactly the type of bait that goes all the way anymore. I'd watch out for an acting win instead.

 

Nickel Boys is one to watch out for. The NYFF spot indicates strong prestige reviews and it's a powerful topic. But skipping TIFF implies it might lack broad accessibility, etc. MGM/Amazon isn't a great studio at this point, and it probably is devoid of high commercial prospects.

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23 hours ago, filmlover said:

I wonder when WB plans to put out Eastwood's final movie. It's been in the can since May (when it received its MPA rating) and they only have 3 remaining movies for the year scheduled.

Wouldn't The Mule's spot make sense? Get it in late enough, theaters can't drop it over Xmas, can play throughout the holidays. Granted, I guess that's what they tried with Richard Jewell and look how that turned out.

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12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Wouldn't The Mule's spot make sense? Get it in late enough, theaters can't drop it over Xmas, can play throughout the holidays. Granted, I guess that's what they tried with Richard Jewell and look how that turned out.

WB has that animated Lord of the Rings movie set for 12/13 (same spot where The Mule opened).

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1. Blitz
2. Anora
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Joker Foliex a Duex
5. Saturday Night
6. Conclave
7. A Complete Unknown
8. The Piano Lesson
9. Nickel Boys

10. We Live in Time

 

Gladiator II seems more like a Napoleon (couple of tech noms), even if it is more of a box office hit. I feel like no one cares about Sing Sing anymore, and We Live in Time at least had a buzzy first trailer even if it doesn't look great.

 

I don't buy Searchlight getting two Picture nominations since they've proven they can't handle more than one contender post-pandemic (post-Shape of Water really).

 

Amazon-MGM has been really good about getting one Picture nominee in every year (and the buzz for Challengers has faded significantly).

Edited by ringedmortality
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Saturday Night actually looks like a lot of fun! Since it's going to be receiving somewhat free publicity due to all the attention on SNL this fall because of the election, I'm curious to see how it does at the box office and if it can become a contender.

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It's not a total hit piece and doesn't really get into Sasha's non-MAGA hatefulness. The industry is pulling ads and access for now. There's confirmation of the rumor that she used to date fellow (gross) blogger Jeff Wells! Also, it pays to be an awards pundit:

 

Quote

In 2023, Awards Daily made between $200,000 and $300,000, Stone says.

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

pretty sure they fucked or something

Yeah, I heard that they'd dated but I wasn’t sure it was only a rumor in awards watching circles before. It's not like People Magazine and Access Hollywood are documenting the love lives of Oscar bloggers.

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Sasha Stone has never come across as a Real One and MAGA tends to draw trashy/attention seeking types (the actual celebrities who are part of the MAGA cult are either has-beens who lost their relevancy card a long time ago and/or never saw their careers go very far in the first place and feel forever bitter about such). Given such, there's nothing surprising about her turn to the dark side, especially when the entire notion of "stanning your faves" has bled into all areas of life including even politics (how else does one explain the fanatical response that former TV star celebrity himself Trump receives from his fanbase?).

 

If she were famous enough it's unlikely she would hesitate about accepting an invitation to compete on Dancing with the Stars. 

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

That article is insane btw. Probably the funniest thing any of the Hollywood trades have published in a while.

Have to admit I didn't expect Awards Blogger Karen to be the subject of a "where did it all go wrong?" piece in the trades and yet here we are.

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I was looking through Stone's Flickr account (because it was mentioned in the article) and found a picture she posted of an Obama 2012 sticker.

 

The article painted her to be quite a sad figure. She's a failed actress and they described her as a lonely person that had trouble sustaining relationships.

 

What's weird to me is going full Trump supporter. You can defend Three Billboards, Green Book, and Elgort (I have) without being a conservative lol

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21 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

I was looking through Stone's Flickr account (because it was mentioned in the article) and found a picture she posted of an Obama 2012 sticker.

 

The article painted her to be quite a sad figure. She's a failed actress and they described her as a lonely person that had trouble sustaining relationships.

 

What's weird to me is going full Trump supporter. You can defend Three Billboards, Green Book, and Elgort (I have) without being a conservative lol

Since when did Three Billboards and Green Book even need defending to begin with? One is super acclaimed (93% rt top critics 8.6, 90% rt all critics 8.4, 88 metacritic) and the other literally was awarded best picture.

 

Now that's not to say you can't dislike those movies and whatnot, but to pretend any and all people who liked them are racist conservative trump heads is just absurd. What is even going on?

Edited by JustLurking
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11 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Since when did Three Billboards and Green Book even need defending to begin with? One is super acclaimed (93% rt top critics 8.6, 90% rt all critics 8.4, 88 metacritic) and the other literally was awarded best picture.

 

Now that's not to say you can't dislike those movies and whatnot, but to pretend any and all people who liked them are racist conservative trump heads is just absurd. What is even going on?

Just your typical "manufactured Oscars controversy that disappears forever the day after the ceremony" nonsense. You haven't seen anyone call La La Land a "White Savior Movie" since it lost Best Picture either.

 

What's ironic to me though is that the over the top Three Billboards and Green Book backlash occurred over the first two awards seasons post-Weinstein's overdue downfall. Can't help but imagine he was watching all that with an evil grin knowing that the sort of mudslinging tactics he would often engage in were still living on even with him out of the race for good.

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51 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Since when did Three Billboards and Green Book even need defending to begin with? One is super acclaimed (93% rt top critics 8.6, 90% rt all critics 8.4, 88 metacritic) and the other literally was awarded best picture.

 

Now that's not to say you can't dislike those movies and whatnot, but to pretend any and all people who liked them are racist conservative trump heads is just absurd. What is even going on?

 

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Just your typical "manufactured Oscars controversy that disappears forever the day after the ceremony" nonsense. You haven't seen anyone call La La Land a "White Savior Movie" since it lost Best Picture either.

 

What's ironic to me though is that the over the top Three Billboards and Green Book backlash occurred over the first two awards seasons post-Weinstein's overdue downfall. Can't help but imagine he was watching all that with an evil grin knowing that the sort of mudslinging tactics he would often engage in were still living on even with him out of the race for good.

 

While I think Green Book would have still been seen as a white savior movie, I think Three Billboards got hit the hardest by Trump-era progressivism. If Three Billboards was released three years earlier it would have been seen as a progressive film. La La Land also got hit by the Trump politics of the time, especially since it's competition was Moonlight. So it automatically became the conservative option.

 

Three Billboards should have won over Shape of Water smh.

Edited by ringedmortality
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